Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[kat5hurricane]

I'm not making any judgments about trends until the 0z suite. The 18z runs almost always have wonky solutions.

[Noteaster101]

23 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Agreed feeling good here. Mixing does get pretty close but by that time we are sitting on 10-16”.

I’m sitting here in Pearl River New York, seems like a solid 12 to 18 is on the table, no mixing issues here

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, TriPol said:

... But March 2001... it's a right of passage if you're going to be a weather weenie, you have to have a shot of scotch in your hand, be half drunk, and talk about it until the cows come home.

And this is a problem why?

[NYER72]

i remember being on the forums for that 2015 storm where we got a dusting and not storm of the century. There was a lone voice saying 'aint happening' can't recall.

People really invested and lost their S?$t!

[NJwx85]

My top 3 biggest heartbreaks are:

2/8/13

2/5/10

March 2001

 

Biggest Miracle: 

12/26/10

 

Biggest storm missed while alive:

PD2 - was in FL at Daytona 500.

 

[Jt17]

 
 
18z Euro AI AIFS total QPF - storm
 

Was it colder and snowier than Euro still?


.

[Winterweatherlover]

9 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

I'm not making any judgments about trends until the 0z suite. The 18z runs almost always have wonky solutions.

Agree I also like to evaluate a whole suite before getting too reactive. I'm not sure even tonight at 0Z we'll get definitive answers but what you'd hope for is no radically new solutions to what we are already seeing.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Euro AI is the best weather model in the world!

Because you like the output right now. If it shows an OTS solution tomorrow or cutting through Michigan you will want the plug pulled on it. 

[NJwx85]

Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Because you like the output right now. If it shows an OTS solution tomorrow or cutting through Michigan you will want the plug pulled on it. 

If you thought Metfan was the biggest weenie on here, think again.

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Because you like the output right now. If it shows an OTS solution tomorrow or cutting through Michigan you will want the plug pulled on it. 

no i swear it's not that, it makes the most sense. Also it's all snow for Central Park 

[Joe4alb]

Lets see how the models handle the additional data...

[Winterweatherlover]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

no i swear it's not that, it makes the most sense. Also it's all snow for Central Park 

Why does it make the most sense?

[brooklynwx99]

the 10th percentile on the EPS is a significant event. take a breath 

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Why does it make the most sense?

Don’t ask questions that can’t be adequately answered. 

[BoulderWX]

4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Why does it make the most sense?

Because it’s all snow for CPK LOL - I laughed so hard at the response. 

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said:

No, it was about a foot of snow then rain at midnight then back to snow and temperatures dropping like a rock.  Cars stranded on 347. Bulldozers and anything that could be used was used. 

That was all snow here with an excruciatingly long period of rain on the south shore.

[WeatherGeek2025]

15 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Why does it make the most sense?

because the low isn't particularly strong what so ever, but the high pressure is very potent.  The low pressure though a big system isn't strong to push that arctic dome of air out in time, by the time it does the low pressure is outta here that's why it doesn't become a true coastal.  To me as it stands and of course that could change is a tone of overrunning with really high ratios because you've got a tone of moisture running into a brick wall, and once it saturates it will snow like crazy and the rates could be potentially even 20:1! It won't particularly be windy either with temperatures way below freezing, it will stick and be very sandy snow. Look for the smallest sized flakes come Sunday and Sunday night, as the low moves out offshore, the flakes could become bigger and the ratios will actually fall! 

[SBUWX23]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the 10th percentile on the EPS is a significant event. take a breath 

Got timed out on the other forum and not even sure why. Saw your post about this on it and wanted to respond. This should calm some nerves right now as the floor may already be high. The thump is legit 

[Winterweatherlover]

2 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Because it’s all snow for CPK LOL - I laughed so hard at the response. 

I mean all jokes aside if i was betting on this I would bet all snow in CPK is more likely than not in this setup.

[SBUWX23]

If I were everyone I would urge caution expecting something different from the new recon data.its sampling the upper low off California but there is still northern stream energy that is involved that plays a big roll too. 

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, liwxfan said:

Yes Nemo in 2013 was THE storm of all time for those of us in central suffolk county. I was in Mt. Sinai at the time and had constant thunder snow after sunset. The heaviest rates I've ever experienced to this day. Had about 30 inches. Cars abandoned everywhere. 

I basically agree, except that I was here in 1978.

[L.I.Pete]

That was all snow here with an excruciatingly long period of rain on the south shore.

Port Jeff Station got smoked. My favorite storm besides ‘96.


.

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

because the low isn't particularly strong what so ever, but the high pressure is very potent.  The low pressure though a big system isn't strong to push that arctic dome of air out in time, by the time it does the low pressure is outta here that's why it doesn't become a true coastal.  To me as it stands and of course that could change is a tone of overrunning with really high ratios because you've got a tone of moisture running into a brick wall, and once it saturated it will snow like crazy and the rates could be potentially even 20:1! It won't particularly be windy either with temperatures way below freezing, it will stick and be very sandy snow. Look for the smallest sized flakes come Sunday and Sunday night, as the low moves out offshore, the flakes could become bigger and the ratios will actually fall! 

Look at 500mb before you look at the surface. What happens at 500mb drives what happens at the surface. You want to see strong confluence in SE Canada if we’re getting a full phase to our west. We’re having a ton of Gulf moisture overrunning into the high pressure dome so the surface is definitely relevant here, but the 500mb confluence allows that high to be in place and to force a redevelopment to our south. And you also want to pay attention to the 700/850mb low tracks, if they stay intact and track to our NW that means we have strong southerly flow from the Gulf at those levels and they will warm. But the big initial overrunning surge can mean a ton of snow falls before that warm air gets too potent at 750-800mb and whatever sleet just hardens up the snow pack into cement once it freezes up. I’ll gladly take 10 or 12” of mixed snow and sleet that freezes into cement. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Look at 500mb before you look at the surface. What happens at 500mb drives what happens at the surface. You want to see strong confluence in SE Canada if we’re getting a full phase to our west. We’re having a ton of Gulf moisture overrunning into the high pressure dome so the surface is definitely relevant here, but the 500mb confluence allows that high to be in place and to force a redevelopment to our south. And you also want to pay attention to the 700/850mb low tracks, if they stay intact and track to our NW that means we have strong southerly flow from the Gulf at those levels and they will warm. But the big initial overrunning surge can mean a ton of snow falls before that warm air gets too potent at 750-800mb and whatever sleet just hardens up the snow pack into cement once it freezes up. I’ll gladly take 10 or 12” of mixed snow and sleet that freezes into cement. 

hey John I did look at the Euro AI model and they were all below 0 celsius which to me shows all snow. The low doesn't cut or transfer it just rides the baroclinic pressure gradient which is way south of us. 

[Prue11]

15 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

because the low isn't particularly strong what so ever, but the high pressure is very potent.  The low pressure though a big system isn't strong to push that arctic dome of air out in time, by the time it does the low pressure is outta here that's why it doesn't become a true coastal.  To me as it stands and of course that could change is a tone of overrunning with really high ratios because you've got a tone of moisture running into a brick wall, and once it saturates it will snow like crazy and the rates could be potentially even 20:1! It won't particularly be windy either with temperatures way below freezing, it will stick and be very sandy snow. Look for the smallest sized flakes come Sunday and Sunday night, as the low moves out offshore, the flakes could become bigger and the ratios will actually fall! 

20:1 is pretty unlikely

[WeatherGeek2025]

6 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

20:1 is pretty unlikely

let's ask some mets? is it possible to get 20:1 in a overrunning system in the beginning and half way if the system while temperatures are way below freezing? @forkyfork @SBUWX23i could be wrong i was just thinking this would be a good time to get those ratios because it's not windy, and it's very cold aloft and at the surface!

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

let's ask some mets? is it possible to get 20:1 in a overrunning system in the beginning and half way if the system while temperatures are way below freezing? @forkyfork i could be wrong i was just thinking this would be a good time to get those ratios because it's not windy, and it's very cold aloft and at the surface!

Neither Cobb05 nor Cobb11 on Bufkit show ratios of 20:1. At the height of the storm, the 1/22 0z NBM shows approximately 15:1 ratios. They later fall below 10:1.

[TriPol]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

let's ask some mets? is it possible to get 20:1 in a overrunning system in the beginning and half way if the system while temperatures are way below freezing? @forkyfork i could be wrong i was just thinking this would be a good time to get those ratios because it's not windy, and it's very cold aloft and at the surface!

I’m not a Met and I don’t play one on TV, however; if we’ve got a chance at sleet, petty good bet that we don’t have 20:1 ratios. We thought this would be suppressed to the south originally, but even with that, we’d get .5 of QPF, which would mean 5-8 inches. Remember, there’s a snowstorm next week after this too.

Now we’ve got the chance that maybe either the high pressure isn’t as strong as originally thought, or the low pressure is coming closer to the coast… which will warm the air. Warmer air = lower ratios.

[SBUWX23]

8 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

let's ask some mets? is it possible to get 20:1 in a overrunning system in the beginning and half way if the system while temperatures are way below freezing? @forkyfork @SBUWX23i could be wrong i was just thinking this would be a good time to get those ratios because it's not windy, and it's very cold aloft and at the surface!

I'd say your best chance is at the beginning but I'd be more leaning towards at 15:1 vs 20. And then getting closer to 10 as it gets closer to any potential dry slot or mix, if that were to occur

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Neither Cobb05 nor Cobb11 on Bufkit show ratios of 20:1. At the height of the storm, the 1/22 0z NBM shows approximately 15:1 ratios. They later fall below 10:1.

That would make sense, if we start out with good saturation and lift in the -12 to -18C cloud layer we get the best ratios from good snow growth. If that warms up we lose the best ratios. 20:1 is very rare even in the best setups and I’d argue we wouldn’t even want that as that would be pure fluff that would compact/blow away. I’m fine with less snow overall but longer lasting.