January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Damage In Tolland]

I’m very high on the 15/16th. Think that’s our next snowfall SNE

[butterfish55]

21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

He said shred?

Yessir...You can buy it ground up like hamburger.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Heh … Finally got to see that 18 ZGFS

That’s quite a CCB head it backs in there on the 15th/16th one

[CoastalWx]

29 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

He said shred?

I like it sliced 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Windy tonight.  

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Windy tonight.  

We calm

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, dendrite said:

We calm

There was pretty much zero wind when I walked the dog around 4.  This seems to have started after 7:30 or so.  

[Modfan2]

46F and rain, .10” so far. At least the salt is being washed off the roads

[moneypitmike]

Good write-up from GYX for tomorrow night/sunday

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure moves through the Great Lakes Saturday night, as a
second low develops in the Gulf of Maine late Saturday night
and Sunday. The first low brings warm air in aloft, while the
coastal low helps brings colder air southward at the surface
Sunday morning.

Like we have seen several times so far this winter, cold air
damming will help to drive temperatures and precip types through
the event. With the NBM`s reliably poor performance through
these systems, the forecast heavily weighted the available high
res guidance, most notably from the Nam 3km. As the HRRR becomes
more available through the system, there is likely room for
continued refinement of temperatures into the day on Sunday.

The set up overall is not as ideal at CAD set up as we have
seen from other systems this winter. Saturday`s highs are mild
with temps in the low to mid 40s, and precip arrives too early
in the evening to allow for any meaningful radiational cooling.
This means we`ll have to rely on wet bulbing and cold air
advection for the colder temperatures.

It`s pretty uncommon to wet bulb below freezing into sleet in
freezing rain. For this reason, along much of the coastal plain
and southern New Hampshire it`s likely to be in the 32-34 degree
range with rain for much of Saturday night. Just north of this
area, temps are likely to be at or just below freezing to
produce a narrow stripe of sleet and freezing rain. Then north
of here through the mountains and foothills, mainly snow is
expected.

This is the anticipated outcome through Saturday night. Then by
daybreak Sunday, temperatures begin to fall as the coastal low
deepens and winds shift to northerly. Colder air is expected to
slosh southward at all levels of the atmosphere as the low
deepens. This transitions precip to mainly rain or snow Sunday
morning, with the rain/snow line moving southward. Precip likely
runs out before the cold air arrives through the Seacoast as
the dry slot moves in, but a period of snow likely ends the
event through much of coastal Maine.

Further north through the mountains, foothills, and across
central Maine, moisture likely continues to blossom through the
day as the coastal low deepens. Through these areas, there is an
increasing potential for advisory level snowfall through the
event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

54 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m very high on the 15/16th. Think that’s our next snowfall SNE

"Very high" in terms of confidence that it will snow, or "very high" in terms of the perceived ceiling....

[UnitedWx]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

"Very high" in terms of confidence that it will snow, or "very high" in terms of the perceived ceiling....

Very high could mean all the IPAs that have been flowing here this afternoon... I'm looking forward to seeing if this time frame can produce. At least there's something to track  at least for now 

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

We calm

don’t you mean clam?

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

"Very high" in terms of confidence that it will snow, or "very high" in terms of the perceived ceiling....

He’s having brownies with Steve next Thursday 

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

don’t you mean clam?

Bearded?

 

Pellet stove fan seized up tonight. I guess if there’s a good night for it it’s tonight. Currently 41°. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Winds are roaring here. 

[512high]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Winds are roaring here. 

Really? Calm as can be here/ 46F

[ineedsnow]

2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Just went down (up?) my driveway to get a FedEx box and almost took a header.  Our road is mostly ice free at least (insane potholes and debris though). 

That speaks for every road around here now!! not sure why its so bad this year

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 512high said:

Really? Calm as can be here/ 46F

Roaring here too in Holliston (though I’m on a hill southwest facing.)

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Winds are roaring here. 

Cold air hung on all day here, mostly low to mid 30s.  Until this evening.

Spiked from 37F to 47F in past hour with SW winds gusting over 30mph.  Fully mixed out adiabatically.

BTV just had two hours of 20-25 sustained, gusting 35-45.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just hit 50. AWT

[MJO812]

Gfs

[JKEisMan]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs

Yeah, gfs gonna deliver

[Boston Bulldog]

LBSW

[brooklynwx99]

what the fuck is this 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

what the fuck is this 

A Miller A thanks to the positive PNA

[Torch Tiger]

Monster lbsw. Occlusion for us

[dryslot]

Odd evolution there.

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Bearded?

 

Pellet stove fan seized up tonight. I guess if there’s a good night for it it’s tonight. Currently 41°. 

I have 2 things on hand for mine - convection fan and a stir rod.  Thats what breaks at the worst time.  

[cleetussnow]

Thats gfs run - lets do it.

[JKEisMan]

Won’t be the final outcome obviously, but happy there’s something to track at least.