January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know...nothing against you. I just need to laugh because otherwise I'll cry.

Like I said, it’s good to joke and sometimes be a wise ass on here because it’s like a form of venting. I’d be in tears otherwise.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

35° in Greenfield 45° in South Amherst.

Clouds FTL.  

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

lots of potential.. lets do this! 

Lots of potential for disappointment 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Like I said, it’s good to joke and sometimes be a wise ass on here because it’s like a form of venting. I’d be in tears otherwise.

Yea. That’s what captain obvious should understand by now. Control them fangs a tic when peeps aren’t APATT.

[Typhoon Tip]

50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro likes 1/17….just to trick everyone. It’s really the 1/18 storm but the lead shortwave takes the energy and does a little bomb just SE of us. 

Euro's all over the place 

not saying your wrong or even off ...but we're analyzing shitness

from where i'm sitting, this one run appears to be favoring the 2nd wave in that broadly interfering headache, while simultaneously speeding up the 2nd wave...  it was the 19th and 20th last night.     yikes

[CT Valley Snowman]

Up to a balmy 48 here.  

[kdxken]

Super. 

 

[WinterWolf]

25 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. That’s what captain obvious should understand by now. Control them fangs a tic when peeps aren’t APATT.

I understand this all the time….but at some point there’s a point where there’s enough venting too. And you just suck it up.   Or log off. 
 

And it’s not all positive all the time. I got no issues saying it sucks when it does. 

[VivaManchVegas]

Up to 45 today.  The snow pack is only 4 inches but it is dense.  

[snowman19]

Well that does it….DT is “woofing” about a Miller A KU up the coast next week. When he does that, he dooms it. I don’t know who’s the bigger kiss of death….him, Moregarbage, or JB

[Go Kart Mozart]

AIs haven't really bitten at all, although AIGFS has a nasty looking negative tilted trough for the second "event".  

[Typhoon Tip]

If next week fails to deliver, this winter can go f itself.  

another on an ass heap of 'no, this winter's going to be much better' history  lol

[Go Kart Mozart]

This from Don Sutherland, the Paul DiPodesta of weather forecasting:

Although the events are still outside ability of the operational guidance to reliably resolve the synoptic details, the 12z guidance continues to be encouraging. It it consistent with the ongoing and incredibly orderly pattern evolution that has been underway since the start of January. In that evolution, cold should begin to return next week. Afterward, as the PNA rises, opportunities for snowfall should begin to increase.

As noted previously, both severe cold and significant snowfall are unlikely through at least mid-January. The transition to a more wintry pattern probably won't be completed by then. But shortly afterward, the probability of snowfall should increase. The probability of moderate or significant snowfalls would be higher if a PNA+ can develop and then be sustained. Arctic air might begin to get involved around or after January 20th.

The overall consensus in the guidance is that a general WPO-/EPO-/AO- pattern will develop just after mid-month. Such patterns in combination with a PNA+ are 1.7 times more likely to see one or more days with a 4" or above snowfall than when combined with a PNA-.  Regardless of the state of the PNA, those patterns have seen measurable snowfall nearly once every five days, which is 1.6X climatology (1980-2025). 

As for the 12z GFS's systems during the roughly 168-hour and 222-hour timeframes, it's far too soon to resolve details. That there's activity is sufficient. In general, if things progress as has often occurred during the kind of pattern evolution described above, a delay in the first event would allow the trough more time to sharpen before the storm's development/arrival. That would increase prospects of its having a more impactful track than shown on the 12z GFS. The second system, as things currently stands, likely has the higher probability of taking an impactful track. Although its solution is different, the latter timeframe has support from the GGEM. Model skill at that timeframe is low. For now, it's more useful to stick with the overall pattern progression described above, avoid speculating over synoptic details that the guidance cannot resolve at these timeframes, and leave the details concerning potential events for later. That there's potential is what's both important and encouraging.

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

AIs haven't really bitten at all, although AIGFS has a nasty looking negative tilted trough for the second "event".  

Yeah, I’d like to see that showing a little something better.

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Lots of potential for disappointment 

Or visa versa. Man... So many people want to focus on the negative ( when I get it because there's not a lot of good that we've had over the last several seasons ). But man, not a way to live LOL. Especially when it's a hobby that we all love. I just can't sit here and think the worst. Just not in my makeup. Let's see what happens.....

[weathafella]

We’re getting there.  That’s my take and all I can feel confident in.  For now, I’ll appreciate the melt underfoot and get ready for what’s next.  Plenty of football to distract the most distraught this weekend.  We have a lot of good potential that is holding as we get closer.  Don’t let perfect be the enemy of good.

[Damage In Tolland]

Mid 30’s and rain from tonight thru Sunday . Can’t wait 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Scooter when the op runs finally show some hits inside day 10

 

 

Someone should photoshop your face into the video, that would be epic 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Lots of potential for disappointment 

That’s how I feel. I’m trying to be more positive but I’m not taking the cheese on any of this until something legit is literally on the doorstep. We’ve been burned way to much recently.

And there are still elements that have screwed us over the last half decade ( fast flow, poor wave spacing) present in this upcoming look.

Im not saying it won’t happen, I’m just saying it’s hard to take a cheery position 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Someone should photoshop your face into the video, that would be epic 

Where’s gAInxy?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is absolutely uncalled for. i graduated magna cum laude from penn state and am a successful operational forecaster 

and people wonder why less and less mets post on this forum

Just ignore him. He’s a troll.  You are a great met and valued here. Obviously we want to talk about potentially fun times, and not 40s and rain in the winter. Keep on posting positive vibes, the more the merrier.  

[ORH_wxman]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, I’d like to see that showing a little something better.

I think the D7 event is a long shot (but it does have a decent ceiling if it can back into us)....the one after seems like it has more OP hits including the skynet suite. EuroAI really liked the 1/18-19 system for multiple runs recently. 

All of this is still in marginal clown range, but its the best we've seen all winter in terms of higher end threats. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Damn, it got deleted before I gave it the Poo emoji

[dendrite]

Yeah the personal attacks are uncalled for. Let’s cut that crap. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think the D7 event is a long shot (but it does have a decent ceiling if it can back into us)....the one after seems like it has more OP hits including the skynet suite. EuroAI really liked the 1/18-19 system for multiple runs recently. 

All of this is still in marginal clown range, but its the best we've seen all winter in terms of higher end threats. 

Yeah, don’t get me wrong, I think we’re alI still waiting for Lucy to show up. And obviously, we know what the caveats are, but at least we’re finally seeing some results of this potential shift in the pattern.

[Lava Rock]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Give us a break….really? WTF?  I think everybody knows the caveats.  Dam.

he was a real peach on the forum during covid

[Snowcrazed71]

10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Just ignore him. He’s a troll.  You are a great met and valued here. Obviously we want to talk about potentially fun times, and not 40s and rain in the winter. Keep on posting positive vibes, the more the merrier.  

I totally agree. I always enjoy your take on things, merely because you're always looking at the possibilities of what could happen. Do they happen most of the time? No, but you give the possibilities instead of being negative. I'd rather that than some of these woe is me posts. And usually the ones that complain about what's not happening are the ones that also jump on other people or trying to keep things light and positive. Pay no attention to them as there's a lot of people who appreciate what you do Brooklyn!!

[CoastalWx]

I guess I missed something lol.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I guess I missed something lol.

Edicks attacked Brooklyn99

[eduggs]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Just ignore him. He’s a troll.  You are a great met and valued here. Obviously we want to talk about potentially fun times, and not 40s and rain in the winter. Keep on posting positive vibes, the more the merrier.  

I've followed him for multiple years and he has a poor track record with medium and long range forecasting. I respect his enthusiasm a lot, but he is not yet a good forecaster. Brooklyn does not know what he does not know. He is young and inexperienced and has an unrelenting positive bias. It's relatively straight-forward to describe long-range ensemble anomaly charts in numerical terms and translate that to known pattern configurations. But that doesn't make you a good forecaster at all. Of the hundreds of times he has created an animation to illustrate a positive trend, exceedingly few have preceded a snowy outcome.

If you knew me personally or bothered to read my posts, you would know that I am not a troll. I believe in facts and science, not BS and voodoo.