Minor snow possible sunday 12/14/25

[qg_omega]

53 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Overnight trends were discouraging, hopefully the 12Z runs are a bit better but for now the only model that improved is the 6Z Euro. 

I will be shocked if DC doesn’t do well, pattern always favored DC area for this one

[psv88]

What an ugly NAM run. Yikes. 

[Stormlover74]

Rgem trended slightly better

[mob1]

RGEM looks awesome 

[MJO812]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem trended slightly better

Sure did

[MJO812]

Icon

[Jersey_Snowhole]

18 minutes ago, mob1 said:

3K NAM also moved SE, with 1-2" for the area now. 

BX engine this was the point I was trying to make. Splitting hairs over an inch. It’s not like we were expecting 1-2’ and over night runs are now showing 6”s. It’s and inch difference on the 6z runs which will probably show more on the 12z. I still like 1-3 in nyc maybe more because of ratios any one in the -8 - 10 will have high ratio snow

[mob1]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem trended slightly better

It was already pretty good to begin with so it's encouraging to see. 

[NorthShoreWx]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

What an ugly NAM run. Yikes. 

We will get nam'd at 18z.  Thereafter it will converge on a more reasonable solution.

A bit of blowing snow Sunday afternoon/evening will be a culture shock.

[MJO812]

Rgem is really nice

[SnoSki14]

Man central/south Jersey is getting all the good stuff in winter and during severe weather season 

[MJO812]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Man central/south Jersey is getting all the good stuff in winter and during severe weather season 

Yep they will be the jackpot

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem is really nice

I’m liking how consistent it’s been. Hopefully it has a clue. I don’t buy into the NAM flopping again, it needs to be put out of its misery. But hopefully we see other models bumping N a bit and becoming more aggressive. It’s still a setup where this is fast moving and the trough can squish it south and rush dry air in. That’s the problem the Hudson Valley and much of SNE has-this is all just moving too fast and can’t amp up in time with the trough pressing down. That also brings in dry air. I bet that area with under an inch has flurries to maybe a dusting because of virga-seen that here last winter with those DC to S NJ systems. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

RGEM is 3-5 it looks best right now

[Stormlover74]

Icon is dusting to 2". 3+ to the south 

[Franklin0529]

22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Man central/south Jersey is getting all the good stuff in winter and during severe weather season 

I'll be in Atlantic city from tonight till Monday.. hopefully take a nice snowy walk on the boardwalk Saturday night!!

[MJO812]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

I'll be in Atlantic city from tonight till Monday.. hopefully take a nice snowy walk on the boardwalk Saturday night!!

Enjoy

I did that one year in wildwood.

[Franklin0529]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Enjoy

I did that one year in wildwood.

Thanks man!! Looking forward to it! 

[MJO812]

Gfs is slowly caving 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The velocity of the Pacific Jet since 18-19 has been the strongest sustained period on record.

How long have those records been kept?

[snywx]

Only expecting 1" or so up this way in the HV. Its been a cold and snowy start to the season 40+ miles NW of NYC. Hopefully you guys can cash in with 3"+

[winterwarlock]

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

How long have those records been kept?

Most of the charts I have been using go back to at least 1948.

[MJO812]

Cmc is 3-5 for NYC and SNJ

[MJO812]

Gefs also improved.  General 1-3/2-4 inches expected right now for the coast.

[Nibor]

Wonder if we’ll get one of those last minute north west bumps. Whenever we’re on the rain snow line it seemingly loves to happen and happily screw us. 

[NittanyWx]

I again point to the deep DGZ with this and think fluff factor will help.  

[forkyfork]

Just now, NittanyWx said:

I again point to the deep DGZ with this and think fluff factor will help.  

this looks like a good setup for a northern fringe band

[NittanyWx]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

this looks like a good setup for a northern fringe band

I like the slightly more amped trends we're seeing today as well.

[Yanksfan]

Just now, NittanyWx said:

I like the slightly more amped trends we're seeing today as well.

Another 25 mile bump north  and most of us will be happy on this forum.