The Return of the 12/5 Snowstorm

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

We’re getting 20:1 in Columbia, not sure for you 

I am interested in how the lift profile throughout the atmosphere impacts snow rates if you got any resources on that. Ik that sometimes it causes our events to underperform but I have no idea how to read if that’ll happen

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Reminds me of Jan 13th 2019... just not nearly as much.

That storm...and the one a month before that smoked NC...started this whole south of Bmore better precip mess 

[BristowWx]

18 minutes ago, bncho said:

21z HRRR might be the first run of the HRRR such that the entire storm is within its run. And dare I say the heavier precipitation is more north than 18z.

I like your measured approach so far this winter.  You are not given to emotion. You have evolved into a Jedi you have. 

[The Dude]

26 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

We may get the rare full moon amplification out of this 

But the angle of the full moon will limit accumulation. 

[bncho]

24 minutes ago, bncho said:

21z HRRR might be the first run of the HRRR such that the entire storm is within its run. And dare I say the heavier precipitation is more north than 18z.

it's still moderately snowing at the end of the run, but it's slightly better (in terms of totals) than 18z's full run.

[WEATHER53]

6 minutes ago, The Dude said:

But the angle of the full moon will limit accumulation. 

The moon has serious effect on the tides and what is the atmosphere other than an ocean of moisture 

[midatlanticweather]

I say we stop Kuchera maps! That is all

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Dorchester County has delayed with a reevaluation in the morning.

[Eskimo Joe]

Loudoun County schools 2 hour delay.

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

I say we stop Kuchera maps! That is all

 

i would post both, but unfortunately I don't have infinite attachment space.

[87storms]

One thing is for sure, it's going to snow...not rain or sleet...but snow.  Because it's legitimately cold out.  

Mazel tov to those further south.  I will enjoy my veiled sunshine here in Frederick while I count the crystals sporadically scattered across the hoods of cars.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G19&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

[Bob Chill]

39 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I guess not, lol But you being south does give you better nina climo, wouldn't you say? You don't have to miss the southern sliders (or even the front end of Miller Bs?)

Nope, there is no advantage in any enso other than dumb luck. Small storms have small stripes and I'm getting lucky. No other factors to consider. 

[LP08]

Something to watch, on the HRRR, it seems to be focusing on two bands with a dead zone in the middle.  One up near or south of dc and the other through Richmond.

[Eskimo Joe]

Prince Georges County schools 2-hour delay.

[Paleocene]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Prince Georges County schools 2-hour delay.

Montgomery County just blasted this email to everyone (parents/staff/etc):

	MCPS is closely monitoring the weather forecast for Friday morning. Current weather forecasts indicate the possibility of a wintry mix beginning earlier than expected, which may affect travel conditions for students and staff. We are checking with our county partners and continue to evaluate timing, possible road conditions, and impacts to school operations. If any changes to school schedules are needed, we will notify families and staff as soon as possible through all normal communication channels.

[WhiteoutMD]

7 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Montgomery County just blasted this email to everyone (parents/staff/etc):

	MCPS is closely monitoring the weather forecast for Friday morning. Current weather forecasts indicate the possibility of a wintry mix beginning earlier than expected, which may affect travel conditions for students and staff. We are checking with our county partners and continue to evaluate timing, possible road conditions, and impacts to school operations. If any changes to school schedules are needed, we will notify families and staff as soon as possible through all normal communication channels.

Mix lol 

[bncho]

18z Euro is relatively unchanged DC and points north, but totals are slightly less DC south

[WxUSAF]

50 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I am interested in how the lift profile throughout the atmosphere impacts snow rates if you got any resources on that. Ik that sometimes it causes our events to underperform but I have no idea how to read if that’ll happen

In all seriousness, snow ratios are very difficult to predict with the kind of accuracy we want. Your point about lift being displaced from the DGZ is a good one and probably worth not getting too hopeful of >10:1. But even if we don’t have beautiful dendrites, we should have plates and those are usually 10:1 or so. Needles are the danger zone…those accumulate like sand. Often 5-6:1.

[Lucketts]

34/21

[bncho]

Probably redundant (and if so mods may delete this) but the 22z HRRR is a significant shift north, and it is still snowing at the runs end. Likely would amount to 2-2.5" in DC.

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

18z Euro is relatively unchanged DC and points north, but totals are slightly less DC south

Noise. There is literally no difference. Okay a tenth less here lol. If it wasn't such a minuscule amount of snow it would considered to be no difference.

[nw baltimore wx]

Good trends!

Also, I’m signing the petition for Zwyts to be here. And where is @mattie g???

[AtlanticWx]

hrrr has continued to trend north EVERY run without fail. surely this means something lmao

[Interstate]

2 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

hrrr has continued to trend north EVERY run without fail. surely this means something lmao

Yeah... it means anyone north of DC get a thicker cloud deck tomorrow.

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Good trends!

Also, I’m signing the petition for Zwyts to be here. And where is @mattie g???

It’s a travesty of justice. @stormtrackerwhen is he coming back?.