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AtlanticWx

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Everything posted by AtlanticWx

  1. AtlanticWx
    i think it's less impressive because most of all it cuts back the extra precip associated w the piece near the back edge which lines up with obs. but i just honestly doubt that it'll be that low because rates look impressive compared to NAM 3K which only gets to 1"/hr rates at best
  2. AtlanticWx
    i remember HRRR kept drying up and down trending run after run prior to 1/7/22 which isn't that far off from the storm we're supposed to get tonight since it was a quick hitter w great dynamics ended up with 6" of snow despite HRRR telling me i was gonna get 1-2" right before
  3. AtlanticWx
    37.2° right now, definitely running a bit cold. NAM 3K had us hitting 37-38° at 12 am
  4. AtlanticWx
    41° right now exactly. following models to a tee w temps rn
  5. AtlanticWx
    i can't wait to see the papers analyzing this model fuck-up
  6. AtlanticWx
    js out of curiosity are we not worried that nearly all of the gefs members having a storm for 2/24 have a predominant rain storm?
  7. AtlanticWx
    me too, i loved that stretch of winter. it was so nice going on snow walks and taking it all in. if it ended there and then, i would've been happy with this winter
  8. AtlanticWx
    personally i wouldn't want to have to shovel every few days and have schools closed for ~4 days like we had that one wintry week in january every week but that's just me!
  9. AtlanticWx
    i guarantee you most people in here would be tired if we got 8 weeks of conditions like we had that one week in january. nobody is that much of a winter weenie lmao
  10. AtlanticWx
    we don't live in alaska i don't know why anyone would expect or even want 8 weeks of wall to wall wintry conditions
  11. AtlanticWx
    that week in january was objectively the best looking at the AWSSI values at the three airports from the past 7 years and even for all time it ranked within the top 1-2% of weeks winter-wise if people are complaining about a week like that then maybe u shld move somewhere else cuz ur expectations are way too high
  12. AtlanticWx
    yeah it looked like it was about to drop a nice one and maybe even a bigger one if u extrapolate far enough to where that aleutian low ejects a vort
  13. AtlanticWx
    the euro weeklies control run is still weenie with regionwide 18"+ lmao i hate the controls runs of the weeklies especially, but it's just surprising to me how for the last 6 runs or so it just hasn't given up on the idea of a MECS+ storm with this pattern
  14. AtlanticWx
    i also rlly like feb 23-25 when that mega aleutian low ejects a fat trough
  15. AtlanticWx
    i like seeing that somewhat active NS stream too based off the mean, could mean a big phase
  16. AtlanticWx
    idk where exactly to put this but last week was pretty memorable, more so than most of us thought it's in the top 1.5% of wintry weeks at all the airports and it's actually the most "wintry" week since 2016, even beating out 2019 at every airport
  17. AtlanticWx
    this signal is kinda wild
  18. AtlanticWx
    the 30 day mean just looks absolutely insane on H5 on the weeklies. not scoring a major storm out of this would be a failure in my eyes bc this is a crazy pattern and i can't recall the last time we had sum like this.
  19. AtlanticWx
    wait i thought it was tho? didn't it reach 1.5 C at one point
  20. AtlanticWx
    i would say 2010-11 was pretty good. we got a pretty crazy snowstorm rates wise in january
  21. AtlanticWx
    it really feels like we've been missing the split flow pattern for all of this winter. looks amazing
  22. AtlanticWx
    yeah i get the concern, but to me the weeklies snow means looks great. there's a constant 2"+ mean for the 7 day snow between the 19th and 28th. the snow axis is gonna be N of us because it's js climo and it's still so far out, so it's smoothed out to the point that it looks unfavorable for us
  23. AtlanticWx
    because extended ensembles aren't made to pick out individual storms & all. they're mostly used to identify general features like precip anomalies, temp anomalies etc and give u a good idea ab the pattern. using them to explain why a pattern is bad bc it doesn't produce snow doesn't rlly make sense imo bc it's not made for that
  24. AtlanticWx
    temp anomalies are fairly below average for the same time period though. i wouldn't expect extended ensembles to have good thermals in regards to individual events - that is most definitely not what they're mad for and you can't disregard a pattern because of controls runs. i get the concern but really i don't see where this is stemming from
  25. AtlanticWx
    i understand the sentiment at the axis of the best snow means, but to me at 500mb the pattern looks picturesque. this pattern is relentless too, which is something we've been missing for a while. yes, the controls runs have been lackluster and yes the snow means themselves aren't great, but if you dig more into the snow means it's generally split into two camps - very snowy or almost snowless.
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