6z euro has a more consolidated southern vort, and the piece of the TPV that eventually phases with it looks to be digging more. imo, it'd go north & stronger which is good
all the models im looking at are underdoing the cold at surface level pretty wildly, wouldn't be shocked if we get more wintry weather than we expected tomorrow (not exclusively snow, just like sleet and stuff)
i do wonder if it got sampled, the confluence is over an area that isn't like data dead anymore
regardless, hopefully we see these changes continue! wishing for a colder outcome for everyone
synoptically, 3k nam and nam had colder 850s leading into event as a result of the confluence being handled significantly differently this run at this lead time starting from only 18 hours out
hopefully this is a trend and something we see on all guidance tonight! nam was pretty close for my liking tho honestly
this is just a thought but shouldn't the snow stick almost immediately because of how cold the ground is from the two days of pretty cold temperatures along with those 20 degree DPs up until onset? why use snow depth
18z eps control looks amazing btw, and it usually shadows the op.
it looks like there's more cold and precip starts quicker. it looks colder than gfs at the very least
18z on top, 12z on bottom