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AtlanticWx

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Everything posted by AtlanticWx

  1. AtlanticWx
    for fun, i did an analysis of the snow events we've lost due to climate change. the results were pretty surprising, but it wasn't as high as i thought it'd be. still alarming -- we're losing an average of ~1.1 snow events per year.
  2. AtlanticWx
    ICON would've snowed too damn, what made the 0z models change sm? sampling?
  3. AtlanticWx
    ofc we'll see a +PDO again, it's a decadal oscillation so it usually flips every ~10 years or so
  4. AtlanticWx
    exactly, like AGW is happening fast but i feel like especially in the forums it's exaggerated for how much of an effect it has. it still can snow, like on dec 11 when we got a T-3" area wide storm when we expected nothing in a pretty horrible pattern because it just came together perfectly i think while a lot of the snowlessness recently has to do w AGW & its effects, i also think its just really bad luck along w the -PDO worsening everything since 2016
  5. AtlanticWx
    i don't really get the sentiment across all the forums for canceling winter anyway. the mid point for major storms in ninos like these in the mid atlantic is early february. 75% of winter hasn't even started based off major storms by january 20th. we're fine
  6. AtlanticWx
    wasn't this expected? mjo forcing is supposed to go into MC around this time isn't it? we're not in a nina, i don't really get the worry about some immovable SE ridge
  7. AtlanticWx
    euro has an interior storm for this fwiw, i honestly like euro's progression altogether because it's really close to a good snowstorm on jan 7th. pretty nice look where all we're relying on is a single shortwave to go negative, and there being cold ofc
  8. AtlanticWx
    all ensembles have trended colder in the long range. i suspect this is because of the trend away from the SSW and probably a weaker pass thru 4-5-6 MJO wise which ends up reducing the early signs of our SSW (like EC ridging). If these trends continue, we should be in the game for all of january
  9. AtlanticWx
    kuchera is even more LMAOO, it's like 5-6" extra bc it's that cold
  10. AtlanticWx
    isn't more NS a good thing?
  11. AtlanticWx
    lots of double negatives here, so you'll be surprised if we don't get something between now and january 10th?
  12. AtlanticWx
    fwiw i think the sub 540 rain clipper is j because of all the pac puke still lingering around, but also j AGW yeah
  13. AtlanticWx
    j wanna reiterate it's not all about the members that show a big hit over us. over 50% of the members either have a hit over us or a hit south of us
  14. AtlanticWx
    locked and loaded pattern on all ensembles. when was the last time we had a 2"+ mean on all the ensembles where all the snow falls ~9 days out or further?
  15. AtlanticWx
    this is super weenie but i think the pattern progression of this winter will probably go to a potentially snowy pattern in early january (i think the cap from this pattern could be 12" honestly), and then we have a slight warm up mid jan with a light snow event and then late january to february would be our big dog potential i dont wanna jinx anything but this winter is for sure looking good at this point
  16. AtlanticWx
    this pattern looks really interesting. most interesting pattern we've had since jan 2022?
  17. AtlanticWx
    i really doubt we get more than transient +NAO periods like this one bc of how persistent the -NAO has been since the end of last winter and the brewing possible SSW
  18. AtlanticWx
    on a side note, how are the 1" stats looking like that we used in november for the state of this winter or whatever like the we need to reach 1" by this date stats
  19. AtlanticWx
    wonder what the list of 4" before december 11 for ninos looks like there
  20. AtlanticWx
    1.25-2" here. msor common measurement was like 1.6" tho. still not done snowung
  21. AtlanticWx
    32.7/31.5 here in germantown. dumping snow, maybe i could squeeze out half an inch or maybe an inch if we're generous? idk. what an over performer lmao
  22. AtlanticWx
    .1" here in Germantown, MD. Dumping snow with another band on the way. Maybe i can squeeze out a quarter inch
  23. AtlanticWx
    these flakes are humongous, like 2-3" wide lmao
  24. AtlanticWx
    damn that sucks i'm sorry, i remember yall were way colder than us initially for the most part until around 11
  25. AtlanticWx
    aren't we at the same elevation tho? i'm not sure why you aren't ripping snow, i'm at 350' in s germantown
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