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AtlanticWx

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Everything posted by AtlanticWx

  1. AtlanticWx
    yeah it looked like it was about to drop a nice one and maybe even a bigger one if u extrapolate far enough to where that aleutian low ejects a vort
  2. AtlanticWx
    the euro weeklies control run is still weenie with regionwide 18"+ lmao i hate the controls runs of the weeklies especially, but it's just surprising to me how for the last 6 runs or so it just hasn't given up on the idea of a MECS+ storm with this pattern
  3. AtlanticWx
    i also rlly like feb 23-25 when that mega aleutian low ejects a fat trough
  4. AtlanticWx
    i like seeing that somewhat active NS stream too based off the mean, could mean a big phase
  5. AtlanticWx
    idk where exactly to put this but last week was pretty memorable, more so than most of us thought it's in the top 1.5% of wintry weeks at all the airports and it's actually the most "wintry" week since 2016, even beating out 2019 at every airport
  6. AtlanticWx
    this signal is kinda wild
  7. AtlanticWx
    the 30 day mean just looks absolutely insane on H5 on the weeklies. not scoring a major storm out of this would be a failure in my eyes bc this is a crazy pattern and i can't recall the last time we had sum like this.
  8. AtlanticWx
    wait i thought it was tho? didn't it reach 1.5 C at one point
  9. AtlanticWx
    i would say 2010-11 was pretty good. we got a pretty crazy snowstorm rates wise in january
  10. AtlanticWx
    it really feels like we've been missing the split flow pattern for all of this winter. looks amazing
  11. AtlanticWx
    yeah i get the concern, but to me the weeklies snow means looks great. there's a constant 2"+ mean for the 7 day snow between the 19th and 28th. the snow axis is gonna be N of us because it's js climo and it's still so far out, so it's smoothed out to the point that it looks unfavorable for us
  12. AtlanticWx
    because extended ensembles aren't made to pick out individual storms & all. they're mostly used to identify general features like precip anomalies, temp anomalies etc and give u a good idea ab the pattern. using them to explain why a pattern is bad bc it doesn't produce snow doesn't rlly make sense imo bc it's not made for that
  13. AtlanticWx
    temp anomalies are fairly below average for the same time period though. i wouldn't expect extended ensembles to have good thermals in regards to individual events - that is most definitely not what they're mad for and you can't disregard a pattern because of controls runs. i get the concern but really i don't see where this is stemming from
  14. AtlanticWx
    i understand the sentiment at the axis of the best snow means, but to me at 500mb the pattern looks picturesque. this pattern is relentless too, which is something we've been missing for a while. yes, the controls runs have been lackluster and yes the snow means themselves aren't great, but if you dig more into the snow means it's generally split into two camps - very snowy or almost snowless.
  15. AtlanticWx
    nothing notable from what i can recall
  16. AtlanticWx
    i get your point but any weeklies map i've seen always looks like the climo average for the time period without fail. it makes sense, run 100 simulations of the same pattern and you'll end up with a climo average with tweaks in either direction based off the favorability of the pattern
  17. AtlanticWx
    i think we're in it for a while. on weeklies, the MJO doesn't even reach the indian ocean till march. and IO forcing becomes more favorable for us later in the winter (esp in early march). i really think once we see the onset of this pattern it's probably not going away for possibly the rest of winter here
  18. AtlanticWx
    12/11: 2" 1/14: 0.3" 1/15 - 1/16: 5.6" 1/19: 7.1" Total: 15.0"
  19. AtlanticWx
    my bad, i only saw his comment about march snow. and i agree, climo falls off a cliff in early march for any big storms
  20. AtlanticWx
    we get march snow quite often. march 16 2022 dropped 4-6" across the NW metro thru an anafrontal and i know we got like 2" in march 2019
  21. AtlanticWx
    i think the look for jan 30 is pretty nice for a minor event here maybe, but mostly a new england setup tbh. the preceding airmass is so frigid though so i don't think this overextension will be as bad as the last where we went from an already warm airmass to even more warm this winter is shaping up to be great imo
  22. AtlanticWx
  23. AtlanticWx
    imo our next window is feb 15-march 15 based off weeklies & adjusting it for the probable fact that it gets can kicked a bit though.
  24. AtlanticWx
    widespread 10-12" for the entire week across moco & hoco. what a run lmfao i did not expect this — i guess that's what ample cold and blocking does
  25. AtlanticWx
    7.5" here! I had the same totals as my friends in Gaithersburg & Clarksburg before hand, but we really lucked out with the squalls here. Picked up like 1.5" with the squalls, we really lucked out here lmfao
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