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AtlanticWx

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Everything posted by AtlanticWx

  1. AtlanticWx
    so far all the 0z models have shifted towards a more negative tilt. hrrr looked like nam3k but colder and slightly less precip (would've been pretty snowy probably). gonna have to wait and see what gfs does, but positive trends continuing into 0z so far.
  2. AtlanticWx
    if none of it is gonna stick, i'd rather look at the raw output of how much would be falling rates wise rather than caring about snow depth
  3. AtlanticWx
    oh my god
  4. AtlanticWx
    oh?
  5. AtlanticWx
    surprisingly, euro has .5"-1" of snow depth in NW areas.
  6. AtlanticWx
    70% chance of >1" btw
  7. AtlanticWx
  8. AtlanticWx
    what's the mean? pivotal weather says it's 2" in moco
  9. AtlanticWx
    it's nice knowing there's a shot. just a few runs ago, GFS had a storm near that same time which was about to slam us but it didn't go far out enough
  10. AtlanticWx
    1962, 1961 & 2009 all had >6" of snow fall in december at BWI
  11. AtlanticWx
  12. AtlanticWx
    i think that's where the negativity around this pattern comes from. lots of deja vu especially bc the pattern looks really good around this time last year
  13. AtlanticWx
    maybe we'll get an early start to the ski season
  14. AtlanticWx
    where?
  15. AtlanticWx
    this is how u do it in december
  16. AtlanticWx
    bwi: 38.2" iad: 41.3" dca: 31.0" ric: 24.8" tiebreaker (sby): 13.5"
  17. AtlanticWx
    you will never find a crazy pronounced ridge on a 7 day mean that far out on the weeklies
  18. AtlanticWx
    that's a GOA low, which is a classic feature of Ninos. look at the height lines which point upwards over Idaho, that's a decent signal for a ridge in the west this far out with all the smoothed means. i think you need to let go of whatever nina base state panics ur having bc now we're in a solid nino
  19. AtlanticWx
    -PNA/-NAO is really good for some CAD storms tho. p easy way to score in december if timed right
  20. AtlanticWx
    per eric webb, here's a plot of the JFM difference between the 10 most negative NAOs during december vs 10 most positive NAOs during december. using statistical t-tests, he found a significance of 98% between the two datasets showing that a december -NAO during a nino can go a long way for the rest of the season. take 2009-10 for example which had a crazy december -NAO, which set us up for the monster winter to come. most long range models right now have a sustained -NAO going into december, and while the gefs extended has a +NAO, the gefs has been trending towards a much more sustained -NAO (esp 12z which made a huge nod to CMC/Euro weeklies), so going off of this correlation which has actual statistical significance (~98%) unlike other metrics this board has been using, if we get a -NAO that's sustained throughout December, this winter should turn out pretty cold and possibly snowy too.
  21. AtlanticWx
    i feel like there's more of a correlation w/ the cold rather than the snow. like i think it'd be worth looking into if somebody looks at how winters turn out if it's cold in november/early dec since you won't always get snow w/ cold in the early season, especially with AGW where we get near perfect track rainstorms in the early season
  22. AtlanticWx
    genuine question, how does whether or not PSU gets an inch or not soon have any bearing on how this winter is gonna go? stats can say what they wanna say, but is there really a causation to the correlation that's significant
  23. AtlanticWx
    j for shits and giggles
  24. AtlanticWx
    that's true but it's pretty much guaranteed when you have that type of signature and u have a whole tpv lobe coming down with a storm
  25. AtlanticWx
    The fact that we already have a trackable period with guaranteed cold and it being the question of precipitation being there shows how different this year will be from other years. Can't believe we already can watch models in November.
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