AtlanticWx
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Everything posted by AtlanticWx
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i mean you can tell by the increase in 850mb temps it'll be worse fs
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euro control looks very nice to say the least but if this ends up trending NW we're all screwed lmao
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nah eps changed the same way euro did and eps at hour 144 is pretty horrid. snow cut back by 1.1" compared to last run and 850mb temps are ~3° warmer
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18z euro looks like a nod towards gfs at the upper levels at hour 90, but idk if i'm wrong or if it actually did
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just calculated it for reference in case it's useful to you, the 12z ensembles snowfall probs (would use 18z but it isn't out on meteograms yet) at IAD IAD probs: >1" - 47% >6" - 31%
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i mean honestly CMC has been shifting S and while euro has been incrementally going N, EPS has been going south
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js for fun
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to think this is the lowest output from an ensemble for our threat
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gefs definitely looks south! will post in a min
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gefs run to run change, liking what i see so far (faster piece, lower heights in the 50/50 region and slightly more blocking)
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it's not a banger by any means but if we look at the glass half full, i'd take this run.
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let's see gefs but if we get one more cold shift like this (12z -> 18z) we'll likely have atl some snow to start off with
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this run is DEFINITELY an improvement. snowing in western areas at 135
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i take that back, p major changes in the orientation of the NS. looks more meridional than 12z which was elongated from W/E.. looks p interesting
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NS looks more held back, idk if we're gonna like this
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really? this run looks pretty similar to before imo
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hour 81, our big-scale features look better so far. blocking comes in faster, whatever semblance of low 50/50 heights we have seems stronger, and that piece that eventually comes in the west and messes w our trough seems more held back
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hour 66, that wednesday storm is fairly south on the gfs looks like a euro cave, wondering what implications this is gonna have on our storm
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i always switch to pivotal weather for PBP, WB is slower before hour ~144 tbh
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interesting how the same camps snow-wise for the 28th storm are applicable for the 4th storm. for example euro & cmc are both colder and south for the 28th storm in comparison to gfs. i imagine we'll have to wait a few days to see how that storm plays out so we understand how the next storm plays out
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this is honestly gonna be one of the last if not the last storms to track for the season (as if we've had any) so idk ab you guys but i'm gonna have fun tracking this HH GFS frame by frame analysis who's with me
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when was this dicsussion posted? bc as of now, both EPS and GEPS show a pretty perfect track in terms of how the NS doesn't outpace or get held back and phase with the SS.
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fwiw the top 25% of members' snowfall within eps, gefs and gefs respectively
