AtlanticWx
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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope
AtlanticWx replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
actually, this pattern looks like a pattern that looks bad but could actually work. there's a very good cold source j north of us and even tho 500mb heights show a fairly weak SER 850mb temp anomalies and 2m temp anomalies are both BN being on the thermal gradient should help us w/ overrunning storms too, we'll see. not a bad pattern in the peak of climo -
we don't even need that much of a tick east for the good stuff
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did it improve?
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there's still hope, albeit not much — all ensembles agree on a cool down after the 27th storm before a transient warm up before the TPV dips down come feb 1st, and ensembles + ops have been consistent on some sort of threat the first few days of feb
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it has rlly nice plots but using it on phone is a nightmare
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Way colder 850s this run
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let's see what euro says, EPS made good steps
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imo we're starting to see not horrible trends. seems like precip breaks off from the low and works its way upwards so if a high trends stronger perhaps we sneak our way into measurable snow
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if the 540 line were over us it'd probably be crushing NC
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yeah the advertised pattern is basically just a hyped up backside of a trough now since the ridge starts pumping as it leaves
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the 29th/30th has the highest potential out of all of them bc it could phase w a literal TPV as advertised by a few op runs
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18z eps w/ some pretty major improvements for the storm on the 26th. less amped S/W & lower heights of the EC (555 line was in PA last run now it's south of DC)
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yes because january 25th is definitely 10 days away!
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complaining 24/7 is only gonna make u more sad
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ensembles really ticked up today, 12z eps is really bullish
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i think these se trends for the 23rd while they seem useless bc we prob wont get snow is rlly good for the 27th system as it shunts the boundary further SE & helps fight the amplification
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tbh this is def just ensembles going crazy for one run
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gefs improves the LR pattern too btw
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gefs is crazy for the 26th system - ~50% of >1" and a mean of 4" mostly from the 26th system (give or take 0.1")
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it seems increasingly likely we'll probably get some decent cold and this pattern looks good for ski resorts in PA, hopefully the ski season redeems itself for places like whitetail n liberty
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damn
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i think the window of opportunity remains the same regardless if we pop an se ridge past the 28th like some ensembles are showing it's quite a weak ridge so idt it'll be able to flush out the really cold 850s from the previous airmass, we'll be fine
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00z gem!
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1-2" is meh? damn
