AtlanticWx

yeah, tho i think the entire month of january is prob our window bc the 6th-10th threats are thread the needle but could work out just our best hopes are with the 14th onwards a lot of people are discounting march tho which is surprising since doesnt dc average more snow in march than december now? correct me if i'm wrong tho sun angle is the notably big problem in march but we can still score in march enough for a not completely shit winter

tbf the jet retraction that we're rooting for for a good pattern in jan will eventually have the pac jet retract all the way meaning -PNA/SER for atl the beginning of february and probably most of it given niña climo for february

pressure maps have a decent signal for a 50/50 low; a 50/50 low simply won't show up on ensembles 15 days out tbh

the more the 7th system continues to amp up the higher rates we'll have and possibly more cold air to drag in for colder 2m temps and colder air aloft? perhaps by 18z we could see some digital blue if trends continue

pros and cons of the event near the 7th: pros: we're working with one shortwave here and idk if this is confirmation bias but this winter the common theme has been for shortwaves to trend more and more amped as we get closer. more amped + more neg tilt would let this trailing wave drag more cold air in while also being stronger and more robust meaning snow for many of us cons: the antecedent airmass is pretty marginal and the cold air the cutter before drags in is kinda shit because of how marginal everything is. as long as our storm gets stronger though we should (?) be fine

dca

Using snowfall for analogs doesn't really have weight imo, previous snowfall doesn't change the current pattern so even if you had 10" of snow in December, I don't see the weight it would have on the future patterns. Using teleconnections for analogs makes sense though

74% of our snow comes after January 15th which is a rough eyeball for our "pattern change" Has using snowfall in previous months as an analog for the rest of the winter worked before? Genuine question, not trying to come at anyone for their methods but I don't think it's fair to label this winter as a shut out when we still aren't at our climatologically favored period.

and honestly there are a lot of different pieces of energy rounding the ridge and getting ejected here, something has to score around here definitely feeling bullish about janaury

honestly, we need a good pacific way more than we need a good atlantic jan 2022 was a prime example of great pacific but shit atlantic

i would 100% take another repeat of jan 2022 last year. so many storms to track and while Jan 3 did bust pretty badly here, it was such a fun tracking period with storm after storm

oops, used the wrong level here are the proper march 2018 and dec 2010 maps march 2018 dec 2010

analogs aren't always the greatest thing tbh for example, everyone said dec 2010 and march 2018 were analogs but compare the H5 maps dec 2022 dec 2010 march 2018 they do look similar in some aspects, but the main difference i'm seeing is the troughing off the EC coast also, march 2018 & dec 2010 were a lot snowier for the NE as a whole than this pattern

yep! here you go

nice signal this far out, we'll see what happens

using the januaries of those years to create an H5 plot: and removing Jan of 1985 which was really the only good Jan in those winters therefore being an outlier, you get this H5 composite imo, the pattern expected into jan won't really look like this. sure, we get a -PNA in the first week but as the PAC jet retracts everything should retrogade west giving us an EC trough, +PNA and aluetian low

one thing i particularly like about the upcoming pattern is that we don't have to worry about much going wrong. the pacific jet is currently over extended and we actually want a retraction which is quite easy to get in a niña iirc as long as that ULL near alaska retrogades and become an aleutian low, we're in business for january. ❄️❄️

deep creek is packed with snow rn, just went so can confirm. if you wanna feel less snow-starved, just go during or right after what seems like a pretty dynamic system passing over us bc upslope will probably be best at that time. we planned this vacation a month in advance so we just got lucky with timing, but it was snowing pretty much every day since we got here from the 23rd and stopped snowing last night theres like 6-12" of snowpack too

@psuhoffman do you know which years were the ones you used when Manchester MD had no snow in December as analogs? i'm curious to see what the H5 patterns were in those years during january

can confirm it is FRIGID in deep creek right now, snowing pixie dust right now too

switched over to snow here in germantown, hopefully more precip builds west of us

how is that dry lmao, literal 40 dbz snow on changeover. if you can't enjoy that, you should move to buffalo bc your expectations are way too high.

hrrr just keeps getting better and better for tomorrow. not sure why is there is some zr bc the whole column is below freezing so best to ignore that and think of it as snow

yeah it definitely will diminish a bit, but the parameters around our area support a squall. whether that be rain or snow, we'll see but models have been pointing out a pretty hefty line of rain and snow around here and checking soundings, some of the soundings support thundersnow around here

from the last few runs of HRRR, the trends i'm seeing are more robust backend precip. new hrrr at the top, old hrrr at the bottom