AtlanticWx
-
Posts
604 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by AtlanticWx
-
Honestly, I can't believe I'm saying this, but this is one of the nicer setups here in a sense. A lot of our threats are usually thread-the-needle/one phase can mess up the whole storm kind of storm, but this one is just us relying on one trough and its track. Cold is there associated w/ the trough, just need a good track. The better track (06z GFS yesterday/00z Euro) would definitely fare well here.
-
Probably the first day I haven't looked at ensembles for the LR pattern lmao, pattern chasing got boring after a while.
-
It is at the very end of its run to begin with and GEFS and GEPS both agree in a poleward ridge supporting a -EPO/+PNA to neutral PNA GEFS and GEPS connect the troughing between Hawaii and the Aleutians, sending the ridge further west and more poleward (better for us, more Pac ridging) while EPS fails to "bridge" them resulting in an okay but unfavorable positioning of the -EPO ridge. I wouldn't be worried, right now at least.
-
December-wise, what came up in my program was December 1967 and December 1996. Both of these had a pretty stout -PNA though so not sure if it's the best analog. Snow totals for both months at KIAD were 4.9" and 1.9" respectively.
-
Lmaoo dw about it, probably can't kick the can any further
-
13 days out? ridge bridge showing up within 7 days
-
Research has shown that the "big dogs" in the East Coast typically happen when the -NAO begins to weak, and besides it looks to strengthen again so not really that worried.
-
That threat on the 10th is beginning to look more and more favorable for our area. 18z EPS/EPS Control/ECMWF all shifted south w/ more cold.
-
Wow.
-
TBF, CMC/ICON both show suppressed & colder solutions and Euro's trending colder; GFS is just on an island here.
-
EPS/Euro really trending in the right direction for that threat on the 10th.
-
That Dec 12-13 piece of energy is key. The airmass associated with it comes all the way from Siberia/N AK and it being stronger means it gets trapped under the block and amplified, leading to colder and possibly snowier weather here.
-
Doug's forecast is 100% verifying!!
-
This. Out of the 11 Decembers with an -NAO <-1.2 sd, 10/11 Januaries and 7/11 Februaries had a -NAO too (see this tweet). Blocking won't break down that easily, and we could get another +SCAND going on soon that could retrogade and enforce the -NAO.
-
EPS Control coming in hot with cold pressing more compared to 12z.
-
The long-range pattern looks fine — piece of energy by energy breaks down the SER and further amplifies the Atlantic troughing. We'll be fine lmao, we want the interior NE to win right now so the airmass won't be as modified by the time it reaches us.
-
Hoping that threat around the 10th works out for us
-
00z GFS with a nice hit here! 00z CMC on the other hand gives us rain and snow for SNE, will see how this evolves. The TPV placement matters and I imagine given how volatile models have been with it this storm will flip flop a lot.
-
The trends regarding the TPV lobe getting pulled further west are well within D10, occuring around ~D6
-
18z GFS is a dumpster fire, literally.
-
Not sure if you all have noticed but EPS has decent support for the December 10th threat (GEFS and GEPS too). Many members show a hit here or some even a miss to the north, I'm quite doubtful it misses that far to the south.
