AtlanticWx

on the bright side, ensembles have the probability of an inch being decent! we'll prob see an inch which is enough to make me happy atl

case in point, an impressive mean ~10 days out and for reference w/ out a smoothed mean, 18z gfs paints a good picture

this pattern is gonna be locked and loaded, lots of opportunities esp from the 27th onwards w/ an active STJ coupled w/ multiple waves passing thru. imo 27th is our pattern changer but we could score w/ it if all goes well, just gotta see how things progress. 18z gefs only continues to improve the pattern fwiw, i thought it'd come to an end soon like how the trends for a favorable pattern in december stopped abruptly but it seems like we're within the fantasy pattern range and w/ models only continuing to improve the pattern, perhaps it's time to start getting excited. my only worry is that we go from warm/wet to cold/dry, but multiple waves are passing through so we should be fine?

continued trends SE and immediate NW burgs should be on the right side of the gradient

6z gefs, the 26th/27th is our best chance the next few days

we can hope! imo we could end up w/ a 2008-09 type winter where we get one snow event late jan, an SSWE and a good storm in march

what's pd3?

growing support for an SSWE per the weeklies

who's gonna win, strong TPV lobe(s) or a weak SE ridge? obviously the se ridge!

i do have a good feeling ab this pattern just gotta hope things continue to trend better

Warm? Temp anoms are consistently below 0C throughout the entire run past the 26th and best of all -

i mean if we really wanted to analyze that look verbatim it'd be a miller B transferring off the coast bc of that monster 50/50 low

don't look at the 18z gfs for 384 hours out

2 inches for an ensemble mean where all of it falls between the 23rd and 30th is a good run. 50-60% chance of >1" that far out is pretty good but ok

the 27th setup is actually quite simple, j a wave sliding along a boundary. the complex part ab it is where the boundary would setup as a change in the two or three storms before it and whether or not they trend weaker or stronger could mean less/more cold air ergo setting up the boundary somewhere else

yeah as CAPE said that timeframe from 27th onwards looks interesting. and heights have def been lowering past few runs on GEFS towards the end of jan continued trends should squash the se ridge enough for a nice overrunning pattern around here & we're still 10 days out so a lot can change either for the good or bad

the key takeaway i've been seeing from ensembles is that TPV lobe trending stronger; the stronger it trends the closer we get to a CMCE type look

it's something

if the troughing near 50 N/50 W trends stronger which it looks like it has been, that should be enough for CAD events here.

this forum needs some glimmer of hope so while weeklies are quite inaccurate 30 days out you can see the effect of the SSWE as shown on the weeklies towards the latter half of feb se ridge seems to become more muted and cold seems to slowly press down. again, don't take that as a forecast just stating what i see verbatim

GEFS also has a ~2" mean for much of the area with just the 27th threat, which is pretty big this far out

step up from past runs we had snow here lmao

surprised no one looked at the 12z gfs, looks a lot more wintry compared to previous runs

exactly this, we live in dc you genuinely cannot expect every event to be some crazy all snow event

on the bright side some seasonals have average temps in feb which is saying something?