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AtlanticWx

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Everything posted by AtlanticWx

  1. AtlanticWx
  2. AtlanticWx
    yeah the ceiling for this weekend storm is 3-5". latest eps 90th percentile maps for the weekend have a regionwide 3-4"
  3. AtlanticWx
    i feel like in times we were in a bad mjo phase models trended warmer as soon as it initialized in said phase so i wonder if the same applies here
  4. AtlanticWx
    already a 90% chance of >1" and 50-60% of >3" at hour 288 can't wait to see what it is at the end of the run
  5. AtlanticWx
    it's 6 h precip, so if it snowed at hour 138 and it snowed at hour 141 it'll show snow at hr 144 even if it's rain
  6. AtlanticWx
    ur not gonna get a huge snow event with a leaving airmass
  7. AtlanticWx
    it's march bro what do u expect
  8. AtlanticWx
    us wanting it to trend west and dig is a good place at 6-7 days out imo
  9. AtlanticWx
    if the digging of the wave becomes a trend then like u said we're in the game
  10. AtlanticWx
    all the ensembles dug the sw more as it reached the east coast i think that's exactly what we want, digging when it reaches the plains/EC
  11. AtlanticWx
    ensembles look good which is good enough for now, eps was amazing
  12. AtlanticWx
    can't understate this, HUGE changes this run, digging even more than 0z last night
  13. AtlanticWx
    only at hour 60 and euro's already digging less
  14. AtlanticWx
    on the bright side this could dig sm that we win after bc the secondary low develops rlly far S
  15. AtlanticWx
    think it's like the alternate version of the euro or something ran w different params or maybe an alpha version of the next euro upgrade idk? and yeah it's for monday
  16. AtlanticWx
  17. AtlanticWx
    the march 3 storm was trending very favorably at this time and then switched up at a 5/6 day lead time. imo, ur trends usually always reverse at 5/6 days and we shouldn't be complaining for something that hasn't even reached the pacific shore yet. it only fully comes onshore at hour 144, please don't make presumptions when our main piece is LEAGUES away from being on shore.
  18. AtlanticWx
    y'all will start freaking out immediately after a few bad op runs - don't count ur chickens before they hatch and this goes both ways
  19. AtlanticWx
    we were analyzing 12z not 18z. this is an actual linkage with the -NAO this run, 12z had like +50 ridge anomalies lmao, pls don't twist my words
  20. AtlanticWx
    from 12z -> 18z, slightly faster S/W and most of all, a better phased and significantly stronger (513dm) 50/50 low.
  21. AtlanticWx
    this has always been the case, no? that ridge is doing nothing tho, it's like those light blue anomalies u see in front of a trough sometimes but it doesn't matter bc ur still torching at the surface
  22. AtlanticWx
    imo that's just a result in wave spacing and a ridge being built in front of the s/w. that's not a "real ridge", temps are still below average and so are 850s, i think it's just a response from wavespafong
  23. AtlanticWx
    could anykne explain to me as to how this is a midwest snowstorm look? genuine questikn
  24. AtlanticWx
    please keep doing PBPs, ur analysis is great
  25. AtlanticWx
    i mean a lot of those are from the march 3rd storm and actually have no snow
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