AtlanticWx

gfs better fs

i remember it showing like 10" for march 2022 for the longest time

new hrdps, less amplified and more of a positive tilt leads to a less snowier solution. gonna have to see what 0z does before seeing if this is a trend

nevermind, the whole thing is just slower. looks held back

HRDPS looks less amplified at first glance tbh

RGEM is more - but still pretty bad around NW of DC bc even tho it's cold enough it's still "raining", says around <1" for NW of DC

honestly gonna be fun to see these rates tho, haven't seen these type of rates modeled in a while

yeah it's really elevation dependent this run, it rains IMBY at hr 37 while 5 miles north of me gets puking snow. and that makes sense given im like 50' lower. super cool to see

still puking at hr 41.

yea this is ab to puke snow for those NW of DC

hrrr looks a lot better so far, more - tilt and more held back. looks similar to nam3k at h32

i was wondering this too but after looking into it further, that event was just synoptically different as a whole. we had a GL low that brought a cold front down here followed by some gusty flurries. I think that event was farfetched to begin with and we were j desperate because there was no trailing low or trough digging in the south. this event, meanwhile, is caused by a trough digging in the south and turning negative rapidly bringing cold for the last few hours of precipitation. definitely a more promising event where we see a coastal low spawn and bring back moisture into our area for a few hours of flakes or even accumulating snow. def a more promising setup compared to most anafrontals.

it's honestly a bonus event too, i wasn't expecting anything till new years

the deformation band is back on nam3k, some lucky ppl in moco could see a few sloppy inches w nam3k's depiction verbatim, stalling band for like 3-4 hours

uptick again (10:1 is 2-3" area wide)

don't wanna jinx it but encouraging 0z suite so far. euro was already bullish so i wanna see how much more bullish it can get and if the NAM holds tmr

so far all the 0z models have shifted towards a more negative tilt. hrrr looked like nam3k but colder and slightly less precip (would've been pretty snowy probably). gonna have to wait and see what gfs does, but positive trends continuing into 0z so far.

if none of it is gonna stick, i'd rather look at the raw output of how much would be falling rates wise rather than caring about snow depth

oh my god

oh?

surprisingly, euro has .5"-1" of snow depth in NW areas.

70% chance of >1" btw

what's the mean? pivotal weather says it's 2" in moco