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AtlanticWx

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Everything posted by AtlanticWx

  1. Out of curiosity, what statistical methods did you use/if you created a script to calculate these statistics, would you be able to post it?
  2. SNOD maps which typically downplay snow have like 1" in immediate suburbs (Leesburg/MOCO) lmao, that isn't white rain
  3. euro looks solid -- did take a step back but totals around suburbs remain the same prob bc of better banding
  4. gefs looks pretty crazy now. like 5" mean by hour 330
  5. yeah the ceiling for this weekend storm is 3-5". latest eps 90th percentile maps for the weekend have a regionwide 3-4"
  6. i feel like in times we were in a bad mjo phase models trended warmer as soon as it initialized in said phase so i wonder if the same applies here
  7. already a 90% chance of >1" and 50-60% of >3" at hour 288 can't wait to see what it is at the end of the run
  8. it's 6 h precip, so if it snowed at hour 138 and it snowed at hour 141 it'll show snow at hr 144 even if it's rain
  9. ur not gonna get a huge snow event with a leaving airmass
  10. us wanting it to trend west and dig is a good place at 6-7 days out imo
  11. if the digging of the wave becomes a trend then like u said we're in the game
  12. all the ensembles dug the sw more as it reached the east coast i think that's exactly what we want, digging when it reaches the plains/EC
  13. ensembles look good which is good enough for now, eps was amazing
  14. can't understate this, HUGE changes this run, digging even more than 0z last night
  15. on the bright side this could dig sm that we win after bc the secondary low develops rlly far S
  16. think it's like the alternate version of the euro or something ran w different params or maybe an alpha version of the next euro upgrade idk? and yeah it's for monday
  17. the march 3 storm was trending very favorably at this time and then switched up at a 5/6 day lead time. imo, ur trends usually always reverse at 5/6 days and we shouldn't be complaining for something that hasn't even reached the pacific shore yet. it only fully comes onshore at hour 144, please don't make presumptions when our main piece is LEAGUES away from being on shore.
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