i get your point but any weeklies map i've seen always looks like the climo average for the time period without fail. it makes sense, run 100 simulations of the same pattern and you'll end up with a climo average with tweaks in either direction based off the favorability of the pattern
i think we're in it for a while. on weeklies, the MJO doesn't even reach the indian ocean till march. and IO forcing becomes more favorable for us later in the winter (esp in early march). i really think once we see the onset of this pattern it's probably not going away for possibly the rest of winter here
i think the look for jan 30 is pretty nice for a minor event here maybe, but mostly a new england setup tbh. the preceding airmass is so frigid though so i don't think this overextension will be as bad as the last where we went from an already warm airmass to even more warm
this winter is shaping up to be great imo
7.5" here! I had the same totals as my friends in Gaithersburg & Clarksburg before hand, but we really lucked out with the squalls here. Picked up like 1.5" with the squalls, we really lucked out here lmfao
6.9" here! was around the same as most in moco prior to the squalls but i really got lucky with them. might push 7" or even 7.5" with the last squall heading towards me
i think this is also bc it came in faster but modeled, but yeah this WAA thump was sm heftier than predicted lmao. never was predicted to come close to 1.25" per hour rates
HRRR has a lot of moco pushing 6" including the 2-3" that's already fallen! personally i haven't gotten a 6"+ event since 2019 so this would be awesome
additional snow without the squalls ^
would subtract the additional snow from this map though because we've already seen this snow fall:
3" on top of the snow that has already fallen would be crazy tbh