First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[Chrisrotary12]

Definitely looks and feels like snow on this Sunset walk

[DavisStraight]

36 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Congrats.  It's really close here.  I'm on the eastern edge of heavier amounts and the drop off from taint appears to be right on Route 1.  North of there 'appears' to be okay--south has a little reduction.  I'm a mile north of route 1.

Little hairy for me too. News said 8 inches for Sanford

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

Little hairy for me too. News said 8 inches for Sanford

Might be tough for a time near the coast there, but of all places to try and flip they might be it.

[DavisStraight]

30 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

what's the best site to find soundings?  I need to figure if/how much I mix.  TIA

Tropical Tidbits, right click on the spot you want on the map

[dryslot]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure I agree with that logic. 

That's not what happened lol,  The northern stream on that map is north of the southern stream.

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Tropical Tidbits, right click on the spot you want on the map

Thanks!

[CoastalWx]

Gfs a bit less QPF but the warming seems to have stopped on the 18z runs.

[CoastalWx]

It does offer a coating possibly to Boston, maybe an inch just to the north of the city, at the tail end.

[RI Rob]

How bad do we think the Pike will be during the evening commute? 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, RI Rob said:

How bad do we think the Pike will be during the evening commute? 

Wet. It will Be raining

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs a bit less QPF but the warming seems to have stopped on the 18z runs.

Hoping model guidance underestimates the density of this cold dome over us tonight...could a make a difference when we're talking like 1C in the BL. Guess we'll see on the 00z and 06z runs. 

[DomNH]

I thought the GFS was a hair warmer in NEMA but mostly just noise. Still trying to bring the grid down MHT through the Rt. 2 region. 

[powderfreak]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hoping model guidance underestimates the density of this cold dome over us tonight...could a make a difference when we're talking like 1C in the BL. Guess we'll see on the 00z and 06z runs. 

The bottom is falling out up here as soon as the sun went down.  Feels like it’ll be single digits in like two hours.

19/8 and cratering.  I was thinking a nice cold night could help the battle zones.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

Worcester Public closed.   That’s a bit early

I get it.  Helps parents sort out child care etc.    

Also, my Wunderground app seems to be bringing in accumulating snow kind of early.  Like 9AM.   That seems off 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Congrats.  It's really close here.  I'm on the eastern edge of heavier amounts and the drop off from taint appears to be right on Route 1.  North of there 'appears' to be okay--south has a little reduction.  I'm a mile north of route 1.

I just noticed that you doubled your elevation at the new house compared to pit 2 in Maine.  Congrats!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

 

That’s not how it works lol. 

[mreaves]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s not how it works lol. 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Every time I saw that commercial I cracked up 

[Prismshine Productions]

Forecasted low is 22... Temp down 4.5 degrees in the last hour

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[Hoth]

This is one of those times I’m glad I’m at the CT shoreline. No question about the precipitation mode here and no need to pull my remaining hair out over each model run. Good luck to all up north! 

[Typhoon Tip]

51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hoping model guidance underestimates the density of this cold dome over us tonight...could a make a difference when we're talking like 1C in the BL. Guess we'll see on the 00z and 06z runs. 

agreed here.   I discussed this several hours ago ...

 "The cyclone is going S.  I looked at the 700 mb evolution..it's not clear it closes off enough to fist warmth over top - appears to stay open.  Yet the 850 does closes S of RI.  I'm getting suspicious of this warm idea coming in late.  Not enough to call bull crap yet but close. We are advecting in a teens DP air mass. The already tepid sun will be dead to the environment in another 3 hours then tonight until 4 am...   we're likely to get decent rad cooling production.  We may see an environmental negative feed back on temperature and llv thickness.  I tell you, wouldn't shock me if there's an icing band where these guidance are blithely punching a warm 925s into that antecedent, possibly poorly evaluating circumstance.  "

add to that... Dec 23 1997 was a different total scenario, but the timing with "cold capping" over a teens dp air contributed to one of the finest bust we've ever known - possibly the GOAT.

[Greg]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

agreed here.   I discussed this several hours ago ...

 "The cyclone is going S.  I looked at the 700 mb evolution..it's not clear it closes off enough to fist warmth over top - appears to stay open.  Yet the 850 does closes S of RI.  I'm getting suspicious of this warm idea coming in late.  Not enough to call bull crap yet but close. We are advecting in a teens DP air mass. The already tepid sun will be dead to the environment in another 3 hours then tonight until 4 am...   we're likely to get decent rad cooling production.  We may see an environmental negative feed back on temperature and llv thickness.  I tell you, wouldn't shock me if there's an icing band where these guidance are blithely punching a warm 925s into that antecedent, possibly poorly evaluating circumstance.  "

add to that... Dec 23 1997 was a different total scenario, but the timing with "cold capping" over a teens dp air contributed to one of the finest bust we've ever known - possibly the GOAT.

I remember that one. My surprise birthday snowstorm.

[Henry's Weather]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

agreed here.   I discussed this several hours ago ...

 "The cyclone is going S.  I looked at the 700 mb evolution..it's not clear it closes off enough to fist warmth over top - appears to stay open.  Yet the 850 does closes S of RI.  I'm getting suspicious of this warm idea coming in late.  Not enough to call bull crap yet but close. We are advecting in a teens DP air mass. The already tepid sun will be dead to the environment in another 3 hours then tonight until 4 am...   we're likely to get decent rad cooling production.  We may see an environmental negative feed back on temperature and llv thickness.  I tell you, wouldn't shock me if there's an icing band where these guidance are blithely punching a warm 925s into that antecedent, possibly poorly evaluating circumstance.  "

add to that... Dec 23 1997 was a different total scenario, but the timing with "cold capping" over a teens dp air contributed to one of the finest bust we've ever known - possibly the GOAT.

In english, are you are saying that the antecedent mass might be colder than modeled and that the upper-air structure is an unclear signal for cold air mass retention?

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

agreed here.   I discussed this several hours ago ...

 "The cyclone is going S.  I looked at the 700 mb evolution..it's not clear it closes off enough to fist warmth over top - appears to stay open.  Yet the 850 does closes S of RI.  I'm getting suspicious of this warm idea coming in late.  Not enough to call bull crap yet but close. We are advecting in a teens DP air mass. The already tepid sun will be dead to the environment in another 3 hours then tonight until 4 am...   we're likely to get decent rad cooling production.  We may see an environmental negative feed back on temperature and llv thickness.  I tell you, wouldn't shock me if there's an icing band where these guidance are blithely punching a warm 925s into that antecedent, possibly poorly evaluating circumstance.  "

add to that... Dec 23 1997 was a different total scenario, but the timing with "cold capping" over a teens dp air contributed to one of the finest bust we've ever known - possibly the GOAT.

This is not that and it’s not 1987 modeling with Sister Christian playing in the background. It’s over 

[MarkO]

Us folks on the 495 belt need as much help as we can get. It's down to 32F here in Lowell, and the Davis is reporting 22 at the cabin. Sounds kinda nuts, but I think the action is better here in Lowell. A dry 8" of snow up there is kinda meh, but if we can out an over producer in the 495 area, it will be a sloppy mess with power outages.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is not that and it’s not 1987 modeling with Sister Christian playing in the background. It’s over 

Is this snow…that I’m feeling…

Is this the snow……that’s I’ve been searching for..

[#NoPoles]

44 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The bottom is falling out up here as soon as the sun went down.  Feels like it’ll be single digits in like two hours.

19/8 and cratering.  I was thinking a nice cold night could help the battle zones.  

I opened the door to let the dog out and got smacked in the face by a blast of cold air...way colder than I was anticipating. That was about an hour ago and we were already at 19 degrees. The minute the sunset, temps plummeted 

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, tavwtby said:

I went from a borderline warning event here to possibly being skunked by warm mid-level that'll probably work up the valley, also, the WU point and click showed 6+" for almost a week now is at 5", with a WWA and a Aly forecast for possibly 3-4", which keeps getting smaller...rinse repeat last few seasons, at least it's 12/2 and we still have time to correct, maybe. Would be nice to get a phase and stall here, going to be in and out in a few hours I think. Still thinking North ORH/SNH is gonna jack here 

Low confidence for your area... could be sharp gradient across short distances???  I would not give up hope yet for low-end warning levels?

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

In english, are you are saying that the antecedent mass might be colder than modeled and that the upper-air structure is an unclear signal for cold air mass retention?

yeah that was mostly one Met talking to another.  

It's clear outside, with a DPs regionally 10 to 19.  We're likely getting quite cold in the lowest levels because of that.  That's possibly not being assessed properly wherein the poorly resolved lowest levels that the models can have trouble. 

It's not a slam dunk for a positive bust, but this strikes me as a potential to end up marginally colder - particularly with the storm structurally evolving and moving underneath our latitude. 

I'm not sure where you reside but for like Springfield to Ayer ...that band I suspect it safely snow in this... It's really more of a contention as to where the mix line ends up... I think there's room for it to be S of consensus in this case.   

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is not that and it’s not 1987 modeling with Sister Christian playing in the background. It’s over 

You realize…if you pick up 2-4” tomorrow, these posts of yours will look pretty bad.  Just saying.  It’s getting cold out there bro.