First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[Chrisrotary12]

Definitely looks and feels like snow on this Sunset walk

[DavisStraight]

36 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Congrats.  It's really close here.  I'm on the eastern edge of heavier amounts and the drop off from taint appears to be right on Route 1.  North of there 'appears' to be okay--south has a little reduction.  I'm a mile north of route 1.

Little hairy for me too. News said 8 inches for Sanford

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

Little hairy for me too. News said 8 inches for Sanford

Might be tough for a time near the coast there, but of all places to try and flip they might be it.

[DavisStraight]

30 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

what's the best site to find soundings?  I need to figure if/how much I mix.  TIA

Tropical Tidbits, right click on the spot you want on the map

[dryslot]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure I agree with that logic. 

That's not what happened lol,  The northern stream on that map is north of the southern stream.

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Tropical Tidbits, right click on the spot you want on the map

Thanks!

[CoastalWx]

Gfs a bit less QPF but the warming seems to have stopped on the 18z runs.

[CoastalWx]

It does offer a coating possibly to Boston, maybe an inch just to the north of the city, at the tail end.

[RI Rob]

How bad do we think the Pike will be during the evening commute? 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, RI Rob said:

How bad do we think the Pike will be during the evening commute? 

Wet. It will Be raining

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs a bit less QPF but the warming seems to have stopped on the 18z runs.

Hoping model guidance underestimates the density of this cold dome over us tonight...could a make a difference when we're talking like 1C in the BL. Guess we'll see on the 00z and 06z runs. 

[DomNH]

I thought the GFS was a hair warmer in NEMA but mostly just noise. Still trying to bring the grid down MHT through the Rt. 2 region. 

[powderfreak]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hoping model guidance underestimates the density of this cold dome over us tonight...could a make a difference when we're talking like 1C in the BL. Guess we'll see on the 00z and 06z runs. 

The bottom is falling out up here as soon as the sun went down.  Feels like it’ll be single digits in like two hours.

19/8 and cratering.  I was thinking a nice cold night could help the battle zones.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

Worcester Public closed.   That’s a bit early

I get it.  Helps parents sort out child care etc.    

Also, my Wunderground app seems to be bringing in accumulating snow kind of early.  Like 9AM.   That seems off 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Congrats.  It's really close here.  I'm on the eastern edge of heavier amounts and the drop off from taint appears to be right on Route 1.  North of there 'appears' to be okay--south has a little reduction.  I'm a mile north of route 1.

I just noticed that you doubled your elevation at the new house compared to pit 2 in Maine.  Congrats!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

 

That’s not how it works lol. 

[mreaves]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s not how it works lol. 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Every time I saw that commercial I cracked up 

[Prismshine Productions]

Forecasted low is 22... Temp down 4.5 degrees in the last hour

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[Hoth]

This is one of those times I’m glad I’m at the CT shoreline. No question about the precipitation mode here and no need to pull my remaining hair out over each model run. Good luck to all up north! 

[Typhoon Tip]

51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hoping model guidance underestimates the density of this cold dome over us tonight...could a make a difference when we're talking like 1C in the BL. Guess we'll see on the 00z and 06z runs. 

agreed here.   I discussed this several hours ago ...

 "The cyclone is going S.  I looked at the 700 mb evolution..it's not clear it closes off enough to fist warmth over top - appears to stay open.  Yet the 850 does closes S of RI.  I'm getting suspicious of this warm idea coming in late.  Not enough to call bull crap yet but close. We are advecting in a teens DP air mass. The already tepid sun will be dead to the environment in another 3 hours then tonight until 4 am...   we're likely to get decent rad cooling production.  We may see an environmental negative feed back on temperature and llv thickness.  I tell you, wouldn't shock me if there's an icing band where these guidance are blithely punching a warm 925s into that antecedent, possibly poorly evaluating circumstance.  "

add to that... Dec 23 1997 was a different total scenario, but the timing with "cold capping" over a teens dp air contributed to one of the finest bust we've ever known - possibly the GOAT.

[Greg]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

agreed here.   I discussed this several hours ago ...

 "The cyclone is going S.  I looked at the 700 mb evolution..it's not clear it closes off enough to fist warmth over top - appears to stay open.  Yet the 850 does closes S of RI.  I'm getting suspicious of this warm idea coming in late.  Not enough to call bull crap yet but close. We are advecting in a teens DP air mass. The already tepid sun will be dead to the environment in another 3 hours then tonight until 4 am...   we're likely to get decent rad cooling production.  We may see an environmental negative feed back on temperature and llv thickness.  I tell you, wouldn't shock me if there's an icing band where these guidance are blithely punching a warm 925s into that antecedent, possibly poorly evaluating circumstance.  "

add to that... Dec 23 1997 was a different total scenario, but the timing with "cold capping" over a teens dp air contributed to one of the finest bust we've ever known - possibly the GOAT.

I remember that one. My surprise birthday snowstorm.

[Henry's Weather]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

agreed here.   I discussed this several hours ago ...

 "The cyclone is going S.  I looked at the 700 mb evolution..it's not clear it closes off enough to fist warmth over top - appears to stay open.  Yet the 850 does closes S of RI.  I'm getting suspicious of this warm idea coming in late.  Not enough to call bull crap yet but close. We are advecting in a teens DP air mass. The already tepid sun will be dead to the environment in another 3 hours then tonight until 4 am...   we're likely to get decent rad cooling production.  We may see an environmental negative feed back on temperature and llv thickness.  I tell you, wouldn't shock me if there's an icing band where these guidance are blithely punching a warm 925s into that antecedent, possibly poorly evaluating circumstance.  "

add to that... Dec 23 1997 was a different total scenario, but the timing with "cold capping" over a teens dp air contributed to one of the finest bust we've ever known - possibly the GOAT.

In english, are you are saying that the antecedent mass might be colder than modeled and that the upper-air structure is an unclear signal for cold air mass retention?

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

agreed here.   I discussed this several hours ago ...

 "The cyclone is going S.  I looked at the 700 mb evolution..it's not clear it closes off enough to fist warmth over top - appears to stay open.  Yet the 850 does closes S of RI.  I'm getting suspicious of this warm idea coming in late.  Not enough to call bull crap yet but close. We are advecting in a teens DP air mass. The already tepid sun will be dead to the environment in another 3 hours then tonight until 4 am...   we're likely to get decent rad cooling production.  We may see an environmental negative feed back on temperature and llv thickness.  I tell you, wouldn't shock me if there's an icing band where these guidance are blithely punching a warm 925s into that antecedent, possibly poorly evaluating circumstance.  "

add to that... Dec 23 1997 was a different total scenario, but the timing with "cold capping" over a teens dp air contributed to one of the finest bust we've ever known - possibly the GOAT.

This is not that and it’s not 1987 modeling with Sister Christian playing in the background. It’s over 

[MarkO]

Us folks on the 495 belt need as much help as we can get. It's down to 32F here in Lowell, and the Davis is reporting 22 at the cabin. Sounds kinda nuts, but I think the action is better here in Lowell. A dry 8" of snow up there is kinda meh, but if we can out an over producer in the 495 area, it will be a sloppy mess with power outages.