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First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season


Baroclinic Zone
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36 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Congrats.  It's really close here.  I'm on the eastern edge of heavier amounts and the drop off from taint appears to be right on Route 1.  North of there 'appears' to be okay--south has a little reduction.  I'm a mile north of route 1.

Little hairy for me too. News said 8 inches for Sanford

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs a bit less QPF but the warming seems to have stopped on the 18z runs.

Hoping model guidance underestimates the density of this cold dome over us tonight...could a make a difference when we're talking like 1C in the BL. Guess we'll see on the 00z and 06z runs. 

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31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hoping model guidance underestimates the density of this cold dome over us tonight...could a make a difference when we're talking like 1C in the BL. Guess we'll see on the 00z and 06z runs. 

The bottom is falling out up here as soon as the sun went down.  Feels like it’ll be single digits in like two hours.

19/8 and cratering.  I was thinking a nice cold night could help the battle zones.  

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1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Congrats.  It's really close here.  I'm on the eastern edge of heavier amounts and the drop off from taint appears to be right on Route 1.  North of there 'appears' to be okay--south has a little reduction.  I'm a mile north of route 1.

I just noticed that you doubled your elevation at the new house compared to pit 2 in Maine.  Congrats!

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51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hoping model guidance underestimates the density of this cold dome over us tonight...could a make a difference when we're talking like 1C in the BL. Guess we'll see on the 00z and 06z runs. 

agreed here.   I discussed this several hours ago ...

 "The cyclone is going S.  I looked at the 700 mb evolution..it's not clear it closes off enough to fist warmth over top - appears to stay open.  Yet the 850 does closes S of RI.  I'm getting suspicious of this warm idea coming in late.  Not enough to call bull crap yet but close. We are advecting in a teens DP air mass. The already tepid sun will be dead to the environment in another 3 hours then tonight until 4 am...   we're likely to get decent rad cooling production.  We may see an environmental negative feed back on temperature and llv thickness.  I tell you, wouldn't shock me if there's an icing band where these guidance are blithely punching a warm 925s into that antecedent, possibly poorly evaluating circumstance.  "

add to that... Dec 23 1997 was a different total scenario, but the timing with "cold capping" over a teens dp air contributed to one of the finest bust we've ever known - possibly the GOAT.

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

agreed here.   I discussed this several hours ago ...

 "The cyclone is going S.  I looked at the 700 mb evolution..it's not clear it closes off enough to fist warmth over top - appears to stay open.  Yet the 850 does closes S of RI.  I'm getting suspicious of this warm idea coming in late.  Not enough to call bull crap yet but close. We are advecting in a teens DP air mass. The already tepid sun will be dead to the environment in another 3 hours then tonight until 4 am...   we're likely to get decent rad cooling production.  We may see an environmental negative feed back on temperature and llv thickness.  I tell you, wouldn't shock me if there's an icing band where these guidance are blithely punching a warm 925s into that antecedent, possibly poorly evaluating circumstance.  "

add to that... Dec 23 1997 was a different total scenario, but the timing with "cold capping" over a teens dp air contributed to one of the finest bust we've ever known - possibly the GOAT.

I remember that one. My surprise birthday snowstorm.

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

agreed here.   I discussed this several hours ago ...

 "The cyclone is going S.  I looked at the 700 mb evolution..it's not clear it closes off enough to fist warmth over top - appears to stay open.  Yet the 850 does closes S of RI.  I'm getting suspicious of this warm idea coming in late.  Not enough to call bull crap yet but close. We are advecting in a teens DP air mass. The already tepid sun will be dead to the environment in another 3 hours then tonight until 4 am...   we're likely to get decent rad cooling production.  We may see an environmental negative feed back on temperature and llv thickness.  I tell you, wouldn't shock me if there's an icing band where these guidance are blithely punching a warm 925s into that antecedent, possibly poorly evaluating circumstance.  "

add to that... Dec 23 1997 was a different total scenario, but the timing with "cold capping" over a teens dp air contributed to one of the finest bust we've ever known - possibly the GOAT.

In english, are you are saying that the antecedent mass might be colder than modeled and that the upper-air structure is an unclear signal for cold air mass retention?

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

agreed here.   I discussed this several hours ago ...

 "The cyclone is going S.  I looked at the 700 mb evolution..it's not clear it closes off enough to fist warmth over top - appears to stay open.  Yet the 850 does closes S of RI.  I'm getting suspicious of this warm idea coming in late.  Not enough to call bull crap yet but close. We are advecting in a teens DP air mass. The already tepid sun will be dead to the environment in another 3 hours then tonight until 4 am...   we're likely to get decent rad cooling production.  We may see an environmental negative feed back on temperature and llv thickness.  I tell you, wouldn't shock me if there's an icing band where these guidance are blithely punching a warm 925s into that antecedent, possibly poorly evaluating circumstance.  "

add to that... Dec 23 1997 was a different total scenario, but the timing with "cold capping" over a teens dp air contributed to one of the finest bust we've ever known - possibly the GOAT.

This is not that and it’s not 1987 modeling with Sister Christian playing in the background. It’s over 

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Us folks on the 495 belt need as much help as we can get. It's down to 32F here in Lowell, and the Davis is reporting 22 at the cabin. Sounds kinda nuts, but I think the action is better here in Lowell. A dry 8" of snow up there is kinda meh, but if we can out an over producer in the 495 area, it will be a sloppy mess with power outages.

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