Major Hurricane Melissa - 903mb - 175mph

[WxWatcher007]

Well go ahead and bookmark this

 

[WolfStock1]

Amazing.   Have there ever been eye photos and videos like this?

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, ATDoel said:

Not sure how many 5s but Melissa is the strongest storm in our basin in history this late in the season

Do you know next and 3rd strongest post 10/25?

Thanks 

[WolfStock1]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Well go ahead and bookmark this

 

The tail end of that is just... scary.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Well go ahead and bookmark this

 

Dude. Wow.

[WEATHER53]

57 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Is there a chance this thing misses Jamaica? Like I know no model shows it and it would be an epic modeling fail of even more epic proportions but dang if this doesn’t keep dragging further west when everything has it riding N or NE now

These love  to surprise and trace just off the coastline 

[WEATHER53]

30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I saw this graphic earlier and it really speaks to just how there are levels to this, even among C5s. Even Gabby being on the list shows how impacts increase exponentially based on the intensity of a major hurricane. 

4 cat 5?  How often has that happened ?

[WEATHER53]

21 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Wow.


.

I don’t know if I can ask this right but that towering wall-how thick is it?

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

4 cat 5?  How often has that happened ?

Only 3 this year. There were 4 in 2005. 

[beanskip]

Still watching this westward motion -- looks like Melissa has made it to 78.6W perhaps 78.7W - that's three to four tenths of longitude further west than any 12z hurricane model depicted. HAFS A and B had Melissa crossing 17N at about 78.3W. I'm not sure how much practical impact there is from a near miss of the western tip or a far southwestern coast landfall, but it's interesting to track nonetheless. One would think the far eastern portions of the island might eventually benefit -- QPF-wise -- from a more western track. Not sounding the all clear or anything, lol, but seems like a trend worth watching. 

[Cholorob]

I will say if this gets to about 79W it would have the chance to miss wide left given the forecast angle of recurve 

Not much consolation for Cuba if that happens.


.

[SnoSki14]

A north to NNE turn will commence very shortly. There's no ridging left to keep this moving west. Tourist heavy Montego Bay will likely get eastern eyewall

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

A north to NNE turn will commence very shortly. There's no ridging left to keep this moving west. Tourist heavy Montego Bay will likely get eastern eyewall

Right. I’d argue the tracks earlier into the middle of nowhere may have been best case. Western Jamaica has some pop centers. 

[NeonPeon]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Right. I’d argue the tracks earlier into the middle of nowhere may have been best case. Western Jamaica has some pop centers. 

Sure, but it's better than it hitting the eastern side of the island at least, both in terms of landslide risks and the population. Tourist areas also will rebuild, while no one will invest funds to address the abject destruction of slums in and around kingston.

[BooneWX]

25 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I don’t know if I can ask this right but that towering wall-how thick is it?

I assume you’re talking about height. Those cloud tops are somewhere between 40-50k ft tall. Thicck with two c’s.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

Sure, but it's better than it hitting the eastern side of the island at least, both in terms of landslide risks and the population. Tourist areas also will rebuild, while no one will invest funds to address the abject destruction of slums in and around kingston.

Montego Bay has a good amount of people.  With a small radius even the tracks yesterday weren’t bad wind wise for Kingston.

[olafminesaw]

That pressure gradient is insane. Reading 992 MB at this point

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Montego Bay has a good amount of people.  With a small radius even the tracks yesterday weren’t bad wind wise for Kingston.

Additionally with the storm making landfall in W Jamaica that'll probably cause even greater rainfall and orographic lift on its east side, not to mention the entire island gets 20"+ amounts. 

NE movement ideal for surge too 

[MDSnow93]

This is a shot in the dark, but I'm kind of guessing this southern turn may be the start to a small loop before heading NE

[BooneWX]

5 minutes ago, MDSnow93 said:

This is a shot in the dark, but I'm kind of guessing this southern turn may be the start to a small loop before heading NW

Noticed that too. Last several frames on IR go Nw-W-SW-S. Maybe a wobble but seems like it might be the turn. 
 

Landfall at Savanna La-mar is my guess.

[NorthHillsWx]

First pass shows no real structural changes. No evidence of an outer eyewall development and no real pressure changes. Winds about the same. Let’s see what’s in the NE eyewall. I will say from a sat perspective this is the best the storms has looked. 

[Wannabehippie]

4 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

Jamaica's coastline is relatively steep in most places, so the surge is less likely to be a concern.  Rainfall and wind are the big-ticket items here.  This is probably more akin to Maria in PR as anything else.

Those mountains should help disrupt the circulation, and weaken Melissa before it moves on to Cuba.

[CoastalWx]

The convection continues to go nuts on IR.

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, WolfStock1 said:

Amazing.   Have there ever been eye photos and videos like this?

Dorian. 

[Wannabehippie]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

First pass shows no real structural changes. No evidence of an outer eyewall development and no real pressure changes. Winds about the same. Let’s see what’s in the NE eyewall. I will say from a sat perspective this is the best the storms has looked. 

Probably too late now for any weakening to lower the storm surge, as the waves have already built up. All that can be hoped for is that the winds back down a bit.

[BooneWX]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

First pass shows no real structural changes. No evidence of an outer eyewall development and no real pressure changes. Winds about the same. Let’s see what’s in the NE eyewall. I will say from a sat perspective this is the best the storms has looked. 

And one would think as it gets closer to the coast, there’s room for even more tightening as friction with land starts to do its work. 

[TriPol]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The convection continues to go nuts on IR.

If we’re going to go big, might as well go big. Let’s break Allen’s record!

[clskinsfan]

Definitely a wobble south. And its IR presentation is simply incredible right now. 

 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah looks like a loop almost on satellite. She’s beginning her turn. 

[BooneWX]

910 on first pass but they didn’t hit the center - looks like the sw edge of the eye