WxUSAF Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 1 hour ago, high risk said: You've noted several recent cases in which the ECAIFS led the way in identifying a threat, and this is likely to be another example. Sorta similar setup too with the coastal. Op Euro goes nuts with it. 2” swath through metro corridor. Would be nice after this storm is a semi-bust. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago Euro with 2-3" of rain through Monday. GFS less than 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago Nice steady rain... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 2 hours ago, LP08 said: Euro with 2-3" of rain through Monday. GFS less than 1" Spread out over several days. Nothing too heavy. Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 5 hours ago, high risk said: You've noted several recent cases in which the ECAIFS led the way in identifying a threat, and this is likely to be another example. it seems to have backed off though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago Fall color starting to pop at the top of Smith Mtn (about 2k'). Maple, elm, and hickory mostly. Oaks still mostly green but the acorns are carpet bombing everything lol. Lots of pines on the mtn so it looks really nice during peak with the contrast. 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Have yet to get a drop of rain this week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 5 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Sorta similar setup too with the coastal. Op Euro goes nuts with it. 2” swath through metro corridor. Would be nice after this storm is a semi-bust. Euro is showing a deep tropical feed through the region with the cutoff trough in the southeast and future Imelda moving north out of the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago prolonged deluge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Getting hit pretty good with this line of storms moving through. Pouring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 0.95" Didn't think I would see much of anything here until tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago I had foolishly allowed myself to believe that we were actually done with 70-degree dewpoints for the year, and there was even reason to hope that the Atlantic would be devoid of tropical systems except far-off fish storms. Suddenly it all comes crashing down! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 0z euro would up the fun meter vs the last several months. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 7am thunder is always impressive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 40 minutes ago, LP08 said: 0z euro would up the fun meter vs the last several months. I thought it was just the first storm, but then the fantasy-land up the Bay scenario popped up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 0.43" yesterday. Couple more hundredths overnight. Dark, wet, morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Morning AFD from LWX already mentioning PRE potential .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The cold front looks to sit just east of the Chesapeake Bay Friday morning. A few lingering showers may be possible for areas east of I- 95 and down across southern MD and the northern neck of VA. Clouds will gradually thin with filtered breaks of sunshine, especially later in the day and in areas mainly north of I-66/US-50. The front itself will continue toward the Delmarva coast before stalling into the upcoming weekend. With the frontal zone nearby expect continued scattered shower chances in areas south of I-66 (central VA Piedmont) Friday afternoon into Friday evening. High temperatures Friday will push back into the upper 70s and low 80s (upper 60s and low 70s mountains). Overnight lows Friday night will fall back into mid to upper 50s west of I-81 with low to mid 60s further east. Surface high pressure tries to build back into the region from the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity of the lower Delmarva coast and Carolinas with an upper level low pressure system cutoff within the mean flow over the southern Appalachians. In addition to this Tropical Storm Humberto will continue further north toward the Bahamas and southeast U.S coast late Saturday into Sunday. The interaction amongst all these surface/upper level features could lead to a pseudo PRE event across portions of the Mid-Atlantic region as early as Saturday night into Sunday morning. Lots of uncertainty remains in regards to where this event will occur given the interaction and overall placement of the aforementioned features above. The dynamics are there though given the approaching upper level trough and surface cold front, low pressure to the south, and influx of tropical moisture along the stalled boundary at the coast. Something that will have to continue to monitor in the coming days ahead. Either way if this were to occur we could be looking at drought busting rainfall for much of the region to round the weekend into early next. Highs Saturday will range from the mid to upper 70s over central and northeast MD to mid 60s and low 70s over the mountains/Shenadoah Valley. Lows Saturday night will fall back into the upper 50s and low 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UL troughing and an associated cut-off ULL over the southern Appalachians will meander over the same general area through much of the long term. For Sunday, rather interesting set up with some model guidance and ensemble suites starting to hint at a pseudo PRE event with heavy rain in the Mid-Atlantic. Lots of uncertainties wrt placement and actual occurrence, but dynamics are there: approaching trough and sfc cold front with UL right entrance of jet streak, some MUCAPE with low-level stability, and near record PWs. Depending on timing may start before sunrise Sunday, and go into Monday, but something to keep an eye on. Thereafter, attention turns to the tropics and how Tropical Storm Humberto interacts with invest 94L and the trough across the eastern CONUS. Lots of uncertainties and NHC has the latest official forecast at hurricanes.gov. Temperatures will be in the 70s each day with higher elevations staying in the 60s. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s for those east of the Blue Ridge and 50s for those along and west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flsch22 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago don't know what a "PRE event" is but it sounds excellent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 12 minutes ago, flsch22 said: don't know what a "PRE event" is but it sounds excellent PRE is Predecessor Rainfall Event. Essentially a rain event that is ahead of the main event. Sandy in 2012 had that on the Eastern Shore. The PRE for Helene is what did the Appalachian Mts. dirty. Source: https://site.extension.uga.edu/climate/2020/10/what-is-a-predecessor-rain-event-pre/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just got a nice burst under that red just north of Baltimore City... picked up .27 for the day so far and .50 for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6z EURO is very wet Saturday afternoon into the overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 0.32” from this morning’s showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Back to the jungle weather. Windows closed and AC on. July sucked, August was cool, September is sucking, October is supposed to cool down? FF does that mean November sucks and then a December to remember? January thaw followed by an epic February? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Discob: swamp 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Back to the jungle weather. Windows closed and AC on. July sucked, August was cool, September is sucking, October is supposed to cool down? FF does that mean November sucks and then a December to remember? January thaw followed by an epic February? I’d sacrifice 20 degrees for prolonged sunlight at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago About 0.55" so far for the last 2.5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Had 0.37" in gauge at 7 am CoCoRaHS report this am. Planted grass is really coming along. The 60.0 low was warm, but for 2nd morning in a row last year's number (62.9) beats it. Sun is trying to break thru the fog and clouds and it has warmed to a miserably muggy 71.8/68.6 at 10:30 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted 47 minutes ago Share Posted 47 minutes ago After nearly 6 weeks of nothing... picked up just under an inch in the past 24 hours. Feast or famine has been the theme for the last couple years. Prolonged dry is followed by too much lol. I doubt the 0z euro for down here (10 inches over 6 days lol) but i have a hunch my area will get peppered pretty good. Dust bowl to mud bowl in a blink lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted 22 minutes ago Share Posted 22 minutes ago After nearly 6 weeks of nothing... picked up just under an inch in the past 24 hours. Feast or famine has been the theme for the last couple years. Prolonged dry is followed by too much lol. I doubt the 0z euro for down here (10 inches over 6 days lol) but i have a hunch my area will get peppered pretty good. Dust bowl to mud bowl in a blink lolWe might do medians better than mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted 15 minutes ago Share Posted 15 minutes ago 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: PRE is Predecessor Rainfall Event. Essentially a rain event that is ahead of the main event. Sandy in 2012 had that on the Eastern Shore. The PRE for Helene is what did the Appalachian Mts. dirty. Source: https://site.extension.uga.edu/climate/2020/10/what-is-a-predecessor-rain-event-pre/ I wouldn't call that excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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