Hurricane Erin: 125 MPH - 946mb - WNW @ 13

[Kevin Reilly]

7 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The pressure has risen all the way up to 930 mb.

And they eye fills in and disappears when doing so looks like Erin starts getting shoved WSW a bit definitely going through a cycle now. I wonder what track implications this may have down the road we shall see. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

what a fit bird

 

[Interstate]

1 hour ago, marsman said:

Possible NC12 overwash. NCDOT may canx some of the ferries too. The bold is my add:

 

Good thing they built that new bridge in salvo. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

I KNEW IT

ERIN SHOULD HAVE GONE TO SPECSAVERS

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT ERIN IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE... 8:00 PM AST Sat Aug 16 Location: 20.0°N 64.6°W Moving: W at 15 mph Min pressure: 934 mb Max sustained: 150 mph

[PSLwx]

Seems unusually small: 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center...

-- NHC 8pm advisory

[Joshb32689]

There she is 

[Wannabehippie]

8:00 PM AST Sat Aug 16
Location: 20.0°N 64.6°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 934 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

[WxWatcher007]

Islands continuing to get lashed by the outer bands of Erin

[wthrmn654]

Gfs is even closer now.....

Euro ai still very consistent still.  

[wthrmn654]

Nhc track is to far east now

 

[Wannabehippie]

11:00 PM AST Sat Aug 16 Location: 20.3°N 65.1°W Moving: WNW at 14 mph Min pressure: 937 mb Max sustained: 140 mph

[wthrmn654]

 

Of note looks like all the hurricane models took a big shift west as well

 

[WxWatcher007]

Great thing about being in radar range is you can track the wobbles

[Snowlover11]

sharp wobble southwest.

[Windspeed]

Observing radar the past 12 hours has been fascinating. Erin's small inner eyewall refuses to die. Its ring will weaken for a time, then come back with intense DBZ echoes. Yet, the outer concentric band remains but doesn't appear to be intensifying enough to allow the inner eyewall to finally choke off and collapse. So Erin appears to be in a long-duration replacement cycle. Some mentioning of shear might be the culprit. However, I don't agree with that assessment because these are relatively low values that shouldn't be enough to disrupt the process. We've seen these cycles complete with even moderate shear. I suspect the concentric band is just taking a long time to reach an intensity that would create enough subsidence to do the deed. These processes remain highly unpredictable, statistically, and quite chaotic, so it's really difficult to forecast how an EWRC will unfold with regard to time. Eventually, the outer band should strengthen enough to finish the cycle. But for now, it seems Erin is in a steady state, and the earlier abrupt rise in pressure has stabilized.

Erin's RMI should continue to expand, and the hurricane should become quite large. Eventually, we should get a larger eye, and it may clear out. Though I don't think Erin will be able to reintensify enough to regain its peak intensity from Saturday. Especially considering that southwesterly shear should increase by Monday enough to keep it in check. It should still remain a Category 3 or 4 as it increases in size, however.

[LakeNormanStormin]

OBX keep an eye on this one.

These wobbles might put them in play if she turns too wide 

[bugalou]

9 minutes ago, LakeNormanStormin said:

OBX keep an eye on this one.

These wobbles might put them in play if she turns too wide 

[wthrmn654]

[wthrmn654]

1 hour ago, bugalou said:

Where did you get that gem?!I love that

[wthrmn654]

6z nhc track is again to far east as models again shift west. 

[olafminesaw]

3 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Observing radar the past 12 hours has been fascinating. Erin's small inner eyewall refuses to die. Its ring will weaken for a time, then come back with intense DBZ echoes. Yet, the outer concentric band remains but doesn't appear to be intensifying enough to allow the inner eyewall to finally choke off and collapse. So Erin appears to be in a long-duration replacement cycle. Some mentioning of shear might be the culprit. However, I don't agree with that assessment because these are relatively low values that shouldn't be enough to disrupt the process. We've seen these cycles complete with even moderate shear. I suspect the concentric band is just taking a long time to reach an intensity that would create enough subsidence to do the deed. These processes remain highly unpredictable, statistically, and quite chaotic, so it's really difficult to forecast how an EWRC will unfold with regard to time. Eventually, the outer band should strengthen enough to finish the cycle. But for now, it seems Erin is in a steady state, and the earlier abrupt rise in pressure has stabilized.

Erin's RMI should continue to expand, and the hurricane should become quite large. Eventually, we should get a larger eye, and it may clear out. Though I don't think Erin will be able to reintensify enough to regain its peak intensity from Saturday. Especially considering that southwesterly shear should increase by Monday enough to keep it in check. It should still remain a Category 3 or 4 as it increases in size, however.



 

It really looked like the inner eyewall was trying to weaken last night, but now it's seemingly strengthening and the outer eyewall growing larger/weaker. Very strange 

[bugalou]

3 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

Where did you get that gem?!I love that

twitter

[RevWarReenactor]

Anymore shifts and outer banks could be looking at some fringe effects. 

[jconsor]

16 hours ago, USCG RS said:

What you linked is a great write up. 

Thanks man!  Appreciate the encouragement and positive feedback.  I expect to post an update today.

[A-L-E-K]

Shame about the fish storm 

[Wannabehippie]

8:00 AM AST Sun Aug 17
Location: 20.7°N 67.0°W
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 940 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph
 

[jconsor]

6 hours ago, bugalou said:

@bugalou These graphics of NHC cone/track overlaid with Erin satellite loop are very helpful.  Did you create this via an app or website?

I am familiar with WeatherNerds satellite loops that allow overlay of EPS/GEFS members.
The CIMSS storm-specific page allows overlay of the *current* NHC track, but doesn't dynamically update it every 6 hours as your loop did: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=05L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=111110000000000000000000&loop=0&llval=OFF
 

[nvck]

8 minutes ago, jconsor said:

@bugalou These graphics of NHC cone/track overlaid with Erin satellite loop are very helpful.  Did you create this via an app or website?

I am familiar with WeatherNerds satellite loops that allow overlay of EPS/GEFS members.
The CIMSS storm-specific page allows overlay of the *current* NHC track, but doesn't dynamically update it every 6 hours as your loop did: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=05L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=111110000000000000000000&loop=0&llval=OFF
 

This is the OP from twitter, not sure how he made it.

https://x.com/NickKrasz_Wx/status/1956730795533480017?t=KwNUUdLNnK9aEhPWPNV-7A&s=19

[BarryStantonGBP]

OI

RECKON EKIN WILL SCORE ANOTHER CAT 5 GOAL? got a mate watching her live in the love island villa he crashed while I’m pissed from last night in Pacha

Disappointed she’s a category 3 but oh well steaming hot water ahead and low shear now that she’s fixing her eyewall after a trip to specsavers
 

 

[baldereagle]

Yo mate, I logged on just to advise you that over time, your commentary, taken as a whole, visits damage to otherwise interesting observation threads. I'll refrain from speculation on what "GBP" means.

Have a quiet day.