bugalou

Most of the general public probably doesn't even realize there is a hurricane threat at this point.

My theory is there are multiple mid and low level circulations and elongations that are competing and interfering with one another and things just aren't stacking. Models do an extremely poor job on this scale too. This seems to have been a problem for the past 2 days.

I don't know, I can see it happening. Its highly unusually to have such a cold and dry airmass this far south with a Hurricane right at the coast. If that airmass gets in the way of Ian I can see rapid weakening occur as cP is like fire retardant to a Hurricane without thermal wind/jet support to interact with and introduce baraclonicity a la Fiona. Its just plowing directly into the backside polar high.

We have a chance to see two record RI's within 24 hours of each other in 2 different basins if Ian can get cranking over that bathtub water south of Cuba tonight.

That's because its all about the strength of the trof in the NE. If the trof is stronger and digs more its going to advect more CP dry air southward while making Ian go further east. If the trof is weaker and digs less there is going to be less dry air advected south and less steering influence on Ian (and the ridge to the NW of Ian pulls it more westward).

Man the Gulf has had a knack of turning lemons into lemonade the past few year. The dry air will eventually get to Beta, but it is sure looking better today than I ever expected.

What a great paper! Thank you for sharing. I came out surprised that the impact of wildfires may not be a subtle as I first expected based on that paper. Based on the paper, some relatively 'medium' wildfire events can be compared to a Volcanic Eruptions on the VEI scale of 3 to 4. We are of course talking minor decimal numbers short term in climate temperature impact, but still much more than I expected. PyroCb activity seems to be a key to the smoke's longevity as it injects parts of it directly into the stratosphere. Considering the huge amount of smoke and vigorous PyroCb activity in both the NA west coast fires and Austrialian fires, total injected smoke and particulates into the stratosphere was likely exceptionally high (though I'd love to see numbers if anyone has started to tackle that yet). It will be interesting to see what effects if any it will have on short term climate trends in both hemispheres.

IMO they should stop having a list for every season. Just release a list and when its near exhaustion release a new one. Don't start over at A at the end of a season, just pick up where we left off. It also fixes the issue with all the beginning lettered names being retired at a higher rate than the back end of the alphabet. We really gain no scientific benefit by limiting a pool of names season to season.

In my opinion the debate is dumb. This isn't a subject in which morality plays a factor. No matter how much a person wants a storm to develop or not develop, it is not going to make a lick of difference in reality. It's not as if rooting for a hurricane to get stronger actually makes it get stronger. A storm is going to do exactly what variables involved processed through the laws of nature and the universe output. For those of us who like weather at it's extremes, getting excited when it does occur does not make us bad people. We have zero actual control over things and all of us still feel bad for anyone effected, therefore there is no moral compromise. The Earth can and will continue to produce big weather events that effect people and being in interested and in awe of this power does not make anyone a bad person. The fact that this debate occurs on Weather forums of all places is crazy to me. These places exist for the sole purpose of discussing the weather and I would think most people understand my point above.

With the enormous wildfires in Australia earlier this year and now the absolutely massive plum of smoke being generated from the widespread fires on the west coast of North America, I was curious if there have been any studies on short term (~12-24 months) impacts of smoke and particulates being injected into the atmosphere at this scale. When I saw the Australian fires it was the largest smoke plum I have ever seen on satellite in my 30 years or so of paying attention to weather and wildfires. Then that was topped just this week seeing the huge (and very deep) smoke plum from the fires in the west. I know wildfires happen every year globally, but these two events were both huge and that's on top of all the other smaller wild fires and volcanic eruptions. I also know wildfires can inject particulates into the stratosphere which can take much longer to filter out versus those lower down. I am curious what kind of impacts this could have on the climate (if any) for the next several months. I have searched Google for this but haven't been able to find much since the wildfires here in the US are ongoing so the results are mostly news and health related impacts. If anyone here has papers or studies I would love for you to share.

Marco is now a hurricane.

Not sure if its the small size or the bathwater under it (or both) but I have never seen a tropical storm fight off fairly stout shear with contentious strong convection in the center as well as Marco has thus far. I have been waiting for the convection to die for over 24 hours near the center, but it just keeps firing. The shear is going to start waning as Marco moves north too. I would keep a steady eye on it if I was in southern LA and New Orleans.

Wow! most of the models have now fallen in line to Leslie making a U turn and heading back west! This is going to further extend a lifespan that was already impressive. Michael is going to wreck havoc on the NE gulf coast, but man, Leslie has been one of the most interesting storms I have seen in a while. It will be interesting to continue to watch the evolution of this system.

Several of the models for Leslie are trying to turn her westward again towards the week's end. Even if it doesn't its going to be interesting to see a Sahara or Portugal landfall, or if it manages to sneak into the Mediterranean!

Isaac dealt with day and days of shear and has now opened to a tropical wave. If it gets into the Gulf it has a very slight chance of redeveloping, but none of the global models are showing this currently. All that said Isaac was tenacious its entire life, so it may be something to just keep an eye on.

Well considering the shear is weakening by the minute and the gulf stream is still in play I wouldnt count it out. There is a window over night for it to get stronger. Look at Harvey last year, it doesn't take a long time.

Microwave imaging sure seems to look like its headed toward and eye that big.

Looking to be a threat to the Azores in some capacity before all is said in done. It may be fun to watch the interaction with the disturbance around 35N as well if it pops.

Flooding and landslides are going to be a huge deal when all is said in done, particularly since the storm is going to rake the entire chain with the NE quadrant. I think this is going to get pretty bad out there.