July Discobs 2025

[scope1]

Only a few drops of rain at the house but  went for a quick drive earlier and there was a downpour only a few minutes drive away especially towards downtown McLean. Also was in Richmond yesterday and they were getting rocked, very heavy rain and tons of lightning/loud thunder. Some flooding on roadways out that way, a flash flood warning was issued. 

[snowfan]

Was driving east on 32 a bit ago and was able to match up these two cells on radar. 
 

 

[87storms]

So are we just hoisting flood watches when it's humid now?  Pretty sure not a single drop as fallen here.

[snowfan]

18z 3K wants to bring a cluster of storms into the metro area tomorrow evening. 

[WVclimo]

Getting some frequent vivid lightning from storms 20 miles to my north in PA.  Must be rocking there.

[H2O]

Bust day 2 for storms. Plenty of thunder around me but no storms on me

[Eskimo Joe]

34 minutes ago, 87storms said:

So are we just hoisting flood watches when it's humid now?  Pretty sure not a single drop as fallen here.

If you get under one of these cells, it's intense. I received 0.64" of rain in 15 min from a cell today. Also, some of the mesonet soil moisture probes are showing fully saturated soils. For example, our flood sensor on Cabin John Branch at Bradley Blvd showed a 5 foot rise in 40 minutes on Saturday. If that storm over Potomac persisted for another 20 to 30 minutes it would have been real trouble.

This absolutely justifies the flood watches, IMO.

[87storms]

If you get under one of these cells, it's intense. I received 0.64" of rain in 15 min from a cell today. Also, some of the mesonet soil moisture probes are showing fully saturated soils. For example, our flood sensor on Cabin John Branch at Bradley Blvd showed a 5 foot rise in 40 minutes on Saturday. If that storm over Potomac persisted for another 20 to 30 minutes it would have been real trouble.
This absolutely justifies the flood watches, IMO.

I get all that, but radar was a lot of nothing today.

[Jrlg1181]

Surprisingly picked up 1.21 earlier today... From a cell in western Albemarle that started back building to the northern edge of Waynesboro... Usually that will happen in the southern part of town along or south of 64 with nothing up here...

[mappy]

5 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

never ending mid-upper 70s dewpoints.

65/59 in San Diego. Amazing. 

[Scraff]

7 minutes ago, mappy said:

65/59 in San Diego. Amazing. 

Best weather ever! The dream is one day move there. Would have to be more inland to keep it semi-affordable. I just absolutely love that area. Have fun!

[pazzo83]

16 minutes ago, mappy said:

65/59 in San Diego. Amazing. 

80/75 here.

[snowfan]

3K and HRRR seem locked in on an evening line of storms crossing the 95 corridor. 

[BlizzardNole]

Yet another flood watch, meanwhile my yard is parched and the ground is hard as rock.  0.20 since July 2

[southmdwatcher]

Weather Prediction Center has much of our area east of the Blue Ridge and north of Fredericksburg in a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall today.

[midatlanticweather]

Morning walk felt like if I moved too quickly, I could cause enough of a disturbance to cause rain! LOL! Thick out there! 76/75

 

[konksw]

Air looks thick. 77/74. 

[MillvilleWx]

11 hours ago, 87storms said:

So are we just hoisting flood watches when it's humid now?  Pretty sure not a single drop as fallen here.

I understand the frustration, but the flood/flash flood watches are to encompass entire counties that are within an area that have favorable conditions for flood prospects. 
 

The pattern recently has been less about organized cell clusters and more about more localized convective schema, so these are probably the ones that are extremely annoying to see for those that miss out. I do feel we probably issue too many in these parts (That’s my personal opinion which is just that at the end of the day), but today is actually a day where it is justified. The concern today will be initiation spatially, because if you miss to the west on initiation, you’ll get nothing and areas downstream should get hammered. Hopefully everyone in the sub gets something today. This environment is very ripe for efficient rainfall makers. 

[North Balti Zen]

HOLY hell the humidity - was 98% in fallston area at 6 am - 93% at 8 am and still upper 80s now in Bel Air. It is almost unfathomable to me to see it this humid here for this long. This was what living in Memphis, TN was like for a decade in the summer and...I was happy to move to get away from that.

Whoever gets into moisture/rain/storms today...it is gonna rain a ton - so much precipitable water feels available. 

[MN Transplant]

Just looking at the GFS, the PW values are 1-2 standard deviation above normal the entire run.  It is just going to be gross the rest of the month.

And yes, the Flash Flood watches are warranted.  Just yesterday there was 3” in a short period in NE DC despite the overall radar being somewhat benign.

[frd]

6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Just looking at the GFS, the PW values are 1-2 standard deviation above normal the entire run.  It is just going to be gross the rest of the month.

And yes, the Flash Flood watches are warranted.  Just yesterday there was 3” in a short period in NE DC despite the overall radar being somewhat benign.

It appears even looking into August there are periods of rainfall and clouds. Seasonal models that depicted above average rainfall for the Mid-Atlantic have been spot on. 

 

Granted there are areas that fluctuate into drought, but then rain returns. But overall it's an unusual summer with rainfall potential and extreme dew points. 

[The Dude]

11 hours ago, 87storms said:

I get all that, but radar was a lot of nothing today.

What radar were you looking at?  There were a bunch of storms along and east of 95 in the 12-3 window.  I had one pop up overhead that dumped 1.15", with over an inch in less than 20 minutes.  Sure, it wasn't widespread as Saturday, but there were definitely storms around that were profilic rainmakers.  

[Kmlwx]

Mother Nature is probably getting the ground nice and soggy and flood-prone in time for the Chesapeake-Potomac Hurricane of 2025. 

[frd]

12 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Just looking at the GFS, the PW values are 1-2 standard deviation above normal the entire run.  It is just going to be gross the rest of the month.

And yes, the Flash Flood watches are warranted.  Just yesterday there was 3” in a short period in NE DC despite the overall radar being somewhat benign.

[mdhokie]

11 hours ago, 87storms said:

I get all that, but radar was a lot of nothing today.

My mom lives about 4 miles from me in Howard County. Yesterday we got some sprinkles, but she had gutter overflowing downpours. These storms are unpredictable and the area they pop up get absolutely demolished. 

I don't think any guidance will pin point the exact location of these storms thus the larger watch areas. 

[mdhokie]

1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

HOLY hell the humidity - was 98% in fallston area at 6 am - 93% at 8 am and still upper 80s now in Bel Air. It is almost unfathomable to me to see it this humid here for this long. This was what living in Memphis, TN was like for a decade in the summer and...I was happy to move to get away from that.

Whoever gets into moisture/rain/storms today...it is gonna rain a ton - so much precipitable water feels available. 

I installed a whole house dehumidifier when I built my house. Best investment ever. It feels so good walking in from the jungle outside.

[George BM]

31 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Just looking at the GFS, the PW values are 1-2 standard deviation above normal the entire run.  It is just going to be gross the rest of the month.

And yes, the Flash Flood watches are warranted.  Just yesterday there was 3” in a short period in NE DC despite the overall radar being somewhat benign.

 

1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

HOLY hell the humidity - was 98% in fallston area at 6 am - 93% at 8 am and still upper 80s now in Bel Air. It is almost unfathomable to me to see it this humid here for this long. This was what living in Memphis, TN was like for a decade in the summer and...I was happy to move to get away from that.

Whoever gets into moisture/rain/storms today...it is gonna rain a ton - so much precipitable water feels available. 

Yesterday mornings, yesterday evenings AND this mornings IAD soundings all showed 2.14" Pwats.