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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.


JenkinsJinkies
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I won't get pessimistic until President's week.  Nothing to track by then, it will be a real red flag.  Cold air is on track as predicted for several weeks.  Storm(s) for DMV? TBD.

Too late. You are already there
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I won't get pessimistic until President's week.  Nothing to track by then, it will be a real red flag.  Cold air is on track as predicted for several weeks.  Storm(s) for DMV? TBD.

Not to be a hater, but it was said several times we were supposed to be tracking discrete threats by this weekend. In a weird way, I guess we are… they are just 15 days out.
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23 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


Not to be a hater, but it was said several times we were supposed to be tracking discrete threats by this weekend. In a weird way, I guess we are… they are just 15 days out.

Supposed to and discrete seem like opposites to me

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1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

He's not complaining about the week.  He's complaining that it's the only week.  What about the other 8 weeks of this winter, how do they rank?

we don't live in alaska i don't know why anyone would expect or even want 8 weeks of wall to wall wintry conditions 

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There has been an indication on the ensembles of a discrete wave in the southern stream for several runs now for around the 20th. Remains to be seen how far north the moisture can make it, but it is probably the most trackable signal as of now, and it is 2 weeks out. There are still hints on some runs of something centered on the 15th. Another window to keep an eye on. We are in monitor mode. Some are getting skittish and impatient, and probably should take a break/find other activities to engage in.

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14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

There has been an indication on the ensembles of a discrete wave in the southern stream for several runs now for around the 20th. Remains to be seen how far north the moisture can make it, but it is probably the most trackable signal as of now, and it is 2 weeks out. There are still hints on some runs of something centered on the 15th. Another window to keep an eye on. We are in monitor mode. Some are getting skittish and impatient, and probably should take a break/find other activities to engage in.

I thought 0z GEFS was the best look yet for that PD period. 6z GEFS a bit more south, but these are all small changes for 15 days out. 

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20 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

we don't live in alaska i don't know why anyone would expect or even want 8 weeks of wall to wall wintry conditions 

I dont know of any winter enthusiasts,  who primarily make up the population of this forum, who wouldn't want wall to wall winter.  Having said that, yes, everyone knows our climo here and the best we can expect is periods of winter mixed in with warmer episodes.  But, this is not what has happened.  It's been 8 weeks of spring with one week of winter.  We should be able to do better than that in an El-nino.  Who knows, maybe they'll be an epic period to close it out, although, by the time it gets here we'll be fighting an uphill struggle with climo. 

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13 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I dont know of any winter enthusiasts,  who primarily make up the population of this forum, who wouldn't want wall to wall winter.  Having said that, yes, everyone knows our climo here and the best we can expect is periods of winter mixed in with warmer episodes.  But, this is not what has happened.  It's been 8 weeks of spring with one week of winter.  We should be able to do better than that in an El-nino.  Who knows, maybe they'll be an epic period to close it out, although, by the time it gets here we'll be fighting an uphill struggle with climo. 

i guarantee you most people in here would be tired if we got 8 weeks of conditions like we had that one week in january. nobody is that much of a winter weenie lmao

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3 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

i guarantee you most people in here would be tired if we got 8 weeks of conditions like we had that one week in january. nobody is that much of a winter weenie lmao

I think most people would prefer wall to wall winter, cold and snow. What are we doing here if not? 

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6 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

i guarantee you most people in here would be tired if we got 8 weeks of conditions like we had that one week in january. nobody is that much of a winter weenie lmao

Having lived through a few winters like that, I can assure you I am that much of a weenie.

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8 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

i guarantee you most people in here would be tired if we got 8 weeks of conditions like we had that one week in january. nobody is that much of a winter weenie lmao

If it wasn't for all the road salt I would give that a go lol. I wouldn't want it every winter though. Luckily, there is zero chance it ever happens in the MA lowlands.

2-4 weeks of legit winter is about it.

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11 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

i guarantee you most people in here would be tired if we got 8 weeks of conditions like we had that one week in january. nobody is that much of a winter weenie lmao

I am. I honestly get exceptionally depressed when there is no cold or snow, and rain is the only thing that kind'a makes that better. I know I live in exactly the wrong place on this planet where we get teased with perfection (feb 2010) and then usually trend more towards last winter.

If I can't have three feet of snow on the ground at all times, I want no stop drizzle for months on end.

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7 minutes ago, understudyhero said:

I am. I honestly get exceptionally depressed when there is no cold or snow, and rain is the only thing that kind'a makes that better. I know I live in exactly the wrong place on this planet where we get teased with perfection (feb 2010) and then usually trend more towards last winter.

If I can't have three feet of snow on the ground at all times, I want no stop drizzle for months on end.

Without snow, winter is brutal. Give me lots of snow for three months and then spring but if we’re not getting snow, give me sunny and 50.

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30 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

i guarantee you most people in here would be tired if we got 8 weeks of conditions like we had that one week in january. nobody is that much of a winter weenie lmao

The only time I’ve been tired of snow was my Freshman year at Syracuse in the 2003-2004 season; it was the second snowiest season on record there with 180” and by March (combined w pledging activities in the snow) I was ready for spring 

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56 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

now this is more like it

814analog.webp.f7393d6d9ec9ae42d17ed95a0ed2e6fb.webp

Does anyone know what sort of algorithm/process they use to determine analogs?  Seems like something that would only be possible with AI/machine learning but they have been doing it for years before that stuff was around?

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1 hour ago, AtlanticWx said:

i guarantee you most people in here would be tired if we got 8 weeks of conditions like we had that one week in january. nobody is that much of a winter weenie lmao

Read the room. Many/most here would absolutely love that. 

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1 hour ago, AtlanticWx said:

i guarantee you most people in here would be tired if we got 8 weeks of conditions like we had that one week in january. nobody is that much of a winter weenie lmao

It can never snow enough or be too cold. If we had 8 straight weeks like that I'd be in pure heaven.

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1 hour ago, AtlanticWx said:

i guarantee you most people in here would be tired if we got 8 weeks of conditions like we had that one week in january. nobody is that much of a winter weenie lmao

I actually don't disagree.  I live up in Madison for winter 07-08 and they had a record 100" that winter, and by March that shit was more of a nuisance than enjoyable.  But that was after like 4 straight months of snow cover.

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Is it just me or is the biggest issue with the first part of the incoming pattern through pday or further going to potentially be a lack of cold air? Can anyone with knowledge speak to this. 500 charts at the end of both gfs and cmc ens seem to be kind of a pac puke look for our latitude with cold air stuck to the north. Trying to learn here.

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It IS gonna snow folks. Just a little more patience.  The storms will be there. The pattern is going to turn awesome, we will be happily tracking,  and enthusiastic  snow weenies will be flying! Some of you will be so elated, that you will be in orbit!

You wanna see how we will get demolished? Take a good, long look at Mammoth today. A 20 inch hecs is not out of the question.  This is one hell of an incredible pattern  we are heading into.

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

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1 hour ago, AtlanticWx said:

i guarantee you most people in here would be tired if we got 8 weeks of conditions like we had that one week in january. nobody is that much of a winter weenie lmao

I see you've only been in here since late 2022 so I'll give ya a pass on this take, lol Ya don't know how deep it runs, sir/ma'am :lol:

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