Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is warm and amped. This storm is done for the coast.

Went from promising to nothing .

 

Tried to warn you

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is warm and amped. This storm is done for the coast.

Went from promising to nothing .

 

Yup! No surprise. Hopefully Catskills or poconos still get something. If so, I’ll be there. 

[the_other_guy]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Last 6 runs of the euro.  We're actually back to where we were yesterday at 12z

Glad someone else is following this too.

 

This is a 3-6 storm for 287 with a lot of noise at this point

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Tried to warn you

Who?

[BxEngine]

Can we take the psycho analysis and the fake pessimism and the fake optimism somewhere else and stick to the weather? Holy hell this is impossible to read. 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Glad someone else is following this too.

 

This is a 3-6 storm for 287 with a lot of noise at this point

Even I had forgotten 12z was so bad yesterday 

[mikeysed]

4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Glad someone else is following this too.

 

This is a 3-6 storm for 287 with a lot of noise at this point

With 8" lollis in the mountainous areas (Highland lakes, West Milford, Randolph, Mahwah, etc)

[binbisso]

Taken from mid Atlantic thread. All is not lost. Hopefully we can get a few inches out of this. 

[snywx]

3 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Can we take the psycho analysis and the fake pessimism and the fake optimism somewhere else and stick to the weather? Holy hell this is impossible to read. 

By reading the last few pages you would think we were in for all rain. A good chunk of this forum will see a plowable snowstorm 

[Northof78]

Looks like 50-100 mile model run flip flopping, but relatively safe to say NJ coast/most of LI 1" or less, NYC borderline but most likely 1-3/2-4" decent storm, once into N/C NJ and NW NJ 3-6/4-8"...

[vegan_edible]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is warm and amped. This storm is done for the coast.

Went from promising to nothing .

 

we're also dealing with a single model that at one time was considered great but recently cant seem to get it together...

[WestBabylonWeather]

Get it together. It just came onshore. 

[snywx]

N/W of 287 are in line for a nice 3-6” event w/ 6-8” spots near I-84

[Will - Rutgers]

8 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Can we take the psycho analysis and the fake pessimism and the fake optimism somewhere else and stick to the weather? Holy hell this is impossible to read. 

you have the power to end this

[North and West]

I think what everyone really cares about here is how it’ll do at MMU.


.

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Taken from mid Atlantic thread. All is not lost. Hopefully we can get a few inches out of this. 

Is this the max?

[tornadojay]

Hi.

[binbisso]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Is this the max?

No. That's the mean. In the new England thread they have the different percentiles 

[cleetussnow]

1 minute ago, tornadojay said:

Hi.

man this is a decent looking ensemble.  

[brooklynwx99]

EPS is snowier for pretty much everyone. it's literally not warm lmao

people near the City need to manage expectations... this is really a NW of 95 or even a i-287 and west storm. would also want to be north of I-78. but seeing the 10th percentile and median like this is quite encouraging. probs of 3 and 6" are also quite high for many

[USCG RS]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is literally snowier for pretty much everyone. it's literally not warm lmao

people near the City need to manage expectations... this is really a NW of 95 or even a i-287 and west storm. would also want to be north of I-78. but seeing the 10th percentile and median like this is quite encouraging. probs of 3 and 6" are also quite high for many

100%. 

 

You, myself and others have said this before - meteorology is the recognition of weather patterns and using of models to help make forecasts. Models are not the end all be all, as we all know. So..... 

The overall weather pattern is not conducive for snow for the I-95 corridor from Southern Connecticut on Southward. Now, just because weather patterns are not conducive does not always mean the areas outlined will do poorly. That withstanding, as has been mentioned by myself and others, there is a high likelihood of either rain or a prolonged period of white rain for the I-95 corridor. The reasons for this is mainly due to the lack of cold air. The high pressure setup is not truly funneling cold air into the I-95 corridor. The high pressure extends from Southern Canada and into the Western Atlantic. This, in turn, will allow for easterly winds off of the Atlantic for the coastal areas. Therefore, as the storm is developing, it is likely to bring the relatively warm boundary layer air from the ocean and into the coastal regions. This setup is normally conducive for a coastal front setup, which - while enhancing snowfall rates to the northwest of the front-  those on the opposing side are relatively warm and wet not white.

Of course, sometimes mesoscale features can and will trump the macro scale features. However, what I believe the models are seeing is this area of intense lift that will be generated, yet I do not believe they have accurately reflected boundary layer Temps for the coastal regions.

Just something to keep in mind and to keep your expectations tempered. Of course, there are other potential flies in the ointment, however this is the largest threat I see to the coastal regions at this time. 

(I wrote this on the other board and tried to change it to fit this board a bit better. Forgive me if it comes off a bit disjointed - I am working) 

[tornadojay]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is literally snowier for pretty much everyone. it's literally not warm lmao

people near the City need to manage expectations... this is really a NW of 95 or even a i-287 and west storm. would also want to be north of I-78. but seeing the 10th percentile and median like this is quite encouraging. probs of 3 and 6" are also quite high for many

Agree. Best thing city can hope for is stronger forcing to come through and help drag down just a touch cooler air down to the boundary layer via dynamic cooling.. it’s that close for the city.. soundings look just cold enough to support snow. 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is snowier for pretty much everyone. it's literally not warm lmao

people near the City need to manage expectations... this is really a NW of 95 or even a i-287 and west storm. would also want to be north of I-78. but seeing the 10th percentile and median like this is quite encouraging. probs of 3 and 6" are also quite high for many

Could easily be a NW drift next few days with those  NYC current totals creeping further NW in later runs. 

[tim]

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is warm and amped. This storm is done for the coast.

Went from promising to nothing .

 

..well at least we can watch the NYG@Patriots on sunday & watch it snowing.."so we have that going for us"..( bill murray,caddyshack).

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Could easily be a NW drift next few days with those  NYC current totals creeping further NW in later runs. 

could also drift SE. the ECMWF has an overamped bias

[snowman19]

Could easily be a NW drift next few days with those  NYC current totals creeping further NW in later runs. 

How many times have we seen this with southern branch storms over the years? They trend NW in the final 2 days, not SE. It is extremely likely to adjust further NW come the Thursday and Friday….even the Saturday morning runs. Also, what is going to happen to the SE ridge once we see thunderstorm complexes blowing up in the south? (hint, it’s not going to get weaker). Again, I would not at all be surprised to see this become an I-84 north snowstorm by “game time”. You also have to factor in warm noses that are certain to be an issue with the midlevel lows and are not going to be evident right now. We also have a very marginal airmass in the NYC metro area

[snowman19]

could also drift SE. the ECMWF has an overamped bias

The Euro has always done way better with southern branch cyclones. The GFS on the other hand is really horrible and is always wayyy too far SE, then it does huge last minute corrections NW. Time after time

[Allsnow]

Now we jump back to the north trend from the light rate/surface temp debate 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

How many times have we seen this with southern branch storms over the years? They trend NW in the final 2 days, not SE. It is extremely likely to adjust further NW come the Thursday and Friday….even the Saturday morning runs. Also, what is going to happen to the SE ridge once we see thunderstorm complexes blowing up in the south? (hint, it’s not going to get weaker). Again, I would not at all be surprised to see this become an I-84 north snowstorm by “game time”. You also have to factor in warm noses that are certain to be an issue with the midlevel lows and are not going to be evident right now. We also have a very marginal airmass in the NYC metro area

We also saw this time and again in the 80s and early 90s, storms which were progged to be 1-3" type deals for the city and long island ended up being more like T-1".  For a storm to overperform there has to be colder air and it's more likely to happen later in the season when the ocean is colder.

There is a reason why overperforming storms usually happen in the latter half of February as opposed to right now.

[the_other_guy]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

How many times have we seen this with southern branch storms over the years? They trend NW in the final 2 days, not SE. It is extremely likely to adjust further NW come the Thursday and Friday….even the Saturday morning runs. Also, what is going to happen to the SE ridge once we see thunderstorm complexes blowing up in the south? (hint, it’s not going to get weaker). Again, I would not at all be surprised to see this become an I-84 north snowstorm by “game time”. You also have to factor in warm noses that are certain to be an issue with the midlevel lows and are not going to be evident right now. We also have a very marginal airmass in the NYC metro area

this hasn’t trended anywhere. It’s in the same spot it was yesterday at this time on models.

 

What you have here are guys hanging on every single model run for better or worse. 

But just to cut through everything, it is showing the same exact positioning on the euro that it did yesterday at this time.

A 287 storm