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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope


stormtracker
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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Hey Chuck.  Let me holla at you real quick....

I guess indexes, or index changes aren't considered by models? Weird, easy error. I've seen this verify before close to 100%. 

There you go! I'll look forward to 50s, and 60s and rooting on the snow drought into the 2nd week of February. 

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12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not hating it at all given the GFS bias of crushing cold southward. Not likely happening, esp not this winter.

I tend to agree and the chart time starts with a 1 instead of a 2 or 3!

P.S. if I’m betting cutter vs suppressed, I’ll go with the seasonal trend for now.

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21 minutes ago, CAPE said:
Love me some high gravity ales!


After all the suppression depression from the GFS, can we go back to talking about happy hour drinks now? Lol
ee2210e431180609fa339b25cef223a9.jpg
In actuality, we all know ensembles are more important this far out, so the fact the ops are showing chances and nearby snow is the take away.

Still love @jayyy’s post from a little while back so I saved it:

150ddf91b5ea948ab61595c32b2c3ed4.jpg

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18 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I guess indexes, or index changes aren't considered by models? Weird, easy error. I've seen this verify before close to 100%. 

There you go! I'll look forward to 50s, and 60s and rooting on the snow drought into the 2nd week of February. 

Observing the daily disco of model madness reminds how fragile our intelligence is.

50 - 60 years ago, back in the 60's we at least had the sanity of synoptic weather maps!!

A fan sent me an e-mail this afternoon asking my thoughts on a 10 day ECM shout on a MECS.

Of course I gently explained that it would be gone the next run.

Are there still people that still take this daily Nonsense verbatim??

We are trying to figure out the nuances of mother nature and foolishly connect AGW.

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52 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I guess indexes, or index changes aren't considered by models? Weird, easy error. I've seen this verify before close to 100%. 

There you go! I'll look forward to 50s, and 60s and rooting on the snow drought into the 2nd week of February. 

 

22 minutes ago, stormy said:

Observing the daily disco of model madness reminds how fragile our intelligence is.

50 - 60 years ago, back in the 60's we at least had the sanity of synoptic weather maps!!

A fan sent me an e-mail this afternoon asking my thoughts on a 10 day ECM shout on a MECS.

Of course I gently explained that it would be gone the next run.

Are there still people that still take this daily Nonsense verbatim??

We are trying to figure out the nuances of mother nature and foolishly connect AGW.

I’m so glad you two found each other…

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Still some significant spread among the members wrt wave timing/location/depth of cold/ptype for next week. 
1675188000-fh94aGTmqrg.png
1675252800-M1DdN1TzyXI.png

Not a horrible spread. Could be better of course, but nice to see some snow to our south on some of these members for a change! I’d rather see some suppression than a flush hit or the rain/snow line over us at this range.
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27 minutes ago, stormy said:

 The insanity of today always finds proclamations from those who promote themselves to have a high level of intelligence but who really thrive on self aggrandizement disguised in phantom knowledge . People who create riddles with only one answer.  

Well you seem to be an expert on insanity. 

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His board?

I love weather. Love obvious right's/wrong's and pointing them out as these are $$traded commodities. Feel like it's an awesome chance and time of peace..  384hr gfs ensemble now has a -NAO trying to develop, and I nailed that +PNA Feb5th-> call, as of right now, verifying better and better, vs models at 18z. 384hr of the gfs ensemble looks good. I fear this +NAO pacing our coming +PNA. hopefully the modeled -NAO/+PNA happens in the 2nd week of February. 

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