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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope


stormtracker
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53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

just off the top of my head

PD2 was north for a few runs around day 5. Then it went south then back north but not as far. I remember about a week out worrying about rain at Penn State. 

Late Feb 2007 there was a wave supposed to go through PA and ended up a DC area bullseye with 3-6”.  

March 2014 there were 2 storms that ended up south from where they were 4-5 days out  

The Feb 2015 4-8” to ice storm trended south

A wave in Feb 2018 trended south from 4 days out  

Dec 2018 ugh even ended up missing most of us south after looking great 5 days out 

Even the storm last weekend trended southeast after looking like a cutter into a perfect track coastal it just didn’t matter, gave me 1.7” so celebration lol 

But your point is valid in that it’s more common the other way. I’d guess 75/25 But it can happen.  I think the reason we don’t think about those as much is more often a south trend ends up a hit here so we don’t care about the bust.  That’s simple geography.  There is only so far south any mid lat amplified wave of significant can end up.  We’re way closer to the southern envelope of possible tracks than the north. So a north trend is way more likely to screw us than a south  one. 

 

If anyone could remember I knew you could lol

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54 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Go back to 2013 - 2014 for trends that moved south! It was a very odd year and we just seemed to be in the right place balancing cold and the SE Ridge. Rare and unlike anything I had ever seen! 

Your right about 2014.  Odd year in that regard

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This run shows how small the margin for error is. The high is 12 hours faster and so we change to rain this run even though the wave is actually weaker initially. That high has to be timed exactly perfect or it won’t work. There is nothing in the flow that will stop a cutter once the high starts to exit. 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

You tell me?  All I know is it sucks that it's not there now

We are too far south to just rely on cold. We need a mechanism for the cold to resist a southerly flow and the boundary trying to press back north where it actually belongs. Any wave will try to lift the thermal boundary.  
 

In this case the fact it’s cold at the surface won’t overcome the fact we’re ridging out at the mid levels which drive the storm track unless we get either extremely lucky with a wave that’s too weak to push north but just strong enough to clip us with some precip…wave 1 scenario on the euro, or get that high to time up dead perfectly so the storm literally slams into it like the 0z. 
Even in this setup we need a lot of help. It’s not actually a great longwave setup got a big snow here.  It’s not impossible. We could get lucky. But it’s flawed. 

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44 minutes ago, Ji said:

this aint the 18 inch event the euro had at 00z right?

It not. But I think if we are going to snow in this godforsaken Nina this is how it will happen though. A stalled front with waves riding the boundary. And it better happen over the next couple of weeks. Because after that winter is over. 

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