psuhoffman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I don't think the north trend is weenie fallacy lol. We've seen southern VA/NC hits a week out turn into hits for our area many of times over the years. Ussually there's incremental shifts north the last 48 hours. I can't remember 1 time when it looked like a Pittsburgh hit 4 days out that ended up trending into a hit for us. I remember plenty of central VA hits 4 days out that turned into PSU land bullseye at game time. just off the top of my head PD2 was north for a few runs around day 5. Then it went south then back north but not as far. I remember about a week out worrying about rain at Penn State. Late Feb 2007 there was a wave supposed to go through PA and ended up a DC area bullseye with 3-6”. March 2014 there were 2 storms that ended up south from where they were 4-5 days out The Feb 2015 4-8” to ice storm trended south A wave in Feb 2018 trended south from 4 days out Dec 2018 ugh even ended up missing most of us south after looking great 5 days out Even the storm last weekend trended southeast after looking like a cutter into a perfect track coastal it just didn’t matter, gave me 1.7” so celebration lol But your point is valid in that it’s more common the other way. I’d guess 75/25 But it can happen. I think the reason we don’t think about those as much is more often a south trend ends up a hit here so we don’t care about the bust. That’s simple geography. There is only so far south any mid lat amplified wave of significant can end up. We’re way closer to the southern envelope of possible tracks than the north. So a north trend is way more likely to screw us than a south one. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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