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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope


stormtracker
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16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We are too far south to just rely on cold. We need a mechanism for the cold to resist a southerly flow and the boundary trying to press back north where it actually belongs. Any wave will try to lift the thermal boundary.  
 

In this case the fact it’s cold at the surface won’t overcome the fact we’re ridging out at the mid levels which drive the storm track unless we get either extremely lucky with a wave that’s too weak to push north but just strong enough to clip us with some precip…wave 1 scenario on the euro, or get that high to time up dead perfectly so the storm literally slams into it like the 0z. 
Even in this setup we need a lot of help. It’s not actually a great longwave setup got a big snow here.  It’s not impossible. We could get lucky. But it’s flawed. 

As soon as it gets complicated, we have the "too many levers to pull" as @Bob Chill mentioned before. We are not in a great spot, and, if we know anything, usually trends like this are just the beginning. I mean, maybe just one run, but seriously, the way this winter has been, it is a sign of continuation of cuts to the north and west. There is really nothing holding the cold from escaping. Perfect timing has to be the case.. odds are against it

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4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The long range pattern is utter garbage. But The long range models have been utter garbage as well. So you are right, who knows?

The one thing that has started popping up on all models (though it’s around 216-240 hours out) is a block forming around Scandinavia and maybe could be a saving grace or at least could add some hope against the Pacific if it can retrograde.  We’ll see but hoping for whatever we can squeeze out.  

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4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The long range pattern is utter garbage. But The long range models have been utter garbage as well. So you are right, who knows?

Exactly. I'm over putting any stock into the long range right now, whether it looks good, bad, or indifferent. It's simply not worth it.

I've almost completely tuned out by this point.

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36 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

What happened to this massive cold push finally in place??

This is why I said I didn't believe in suppression this time, lol SE ridge will not be beaten down quietly...and we ain't had any weak waves (which would be the only likely suppresion scenario), and this one so far doesn't look weak on guidance. Still a long ways to go, actually...

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5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This is why I said I didn't believe in suppression this time, lol SE ridge will not be beaten down quietly...and we ain't had any weak waves (which would be the only likely suppresion scenario), and this one so far doesn't look weak on guidance. Still a long ways to go, actually...

Yep still January...no one knows what will happen...get a fluke PD2 or Jan 16 set up and you are above climo in 24 hrs...you just never know

 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Well yes won by 14-1 so here it is... but I will do everyone a solid.  I am going to start with the positives and if you would rather stop reading there and sleep well tonight you can.  I will warn you before I get into the negatives.  

Positives: 

For the first time since December there will be cold air around, that at least makes a good result possible.  Everything else we've been tracking for a month just had no chance, it was DOA with nothing but +10 thermals all around.  Even the last perfect track storm could barely manage some snow in the coldest highest NW fringes of this sub.  And that was with EVERYTHING going perfectly right lol.  This time if we get a perfect track it will snow.  

This is also how we have managed to get most of our snow over the last 7 years or so, with these progressive boundary waves, so there is precedence for this.  I think we have 2 opportunities.  The first is the wave as the cold is pressing.  This has limited upside potential but I think it is actually the more likely to drop some snow somewhere in our region.  The second threat would be with whatever energy gets left behind forming a wave that attacks the cold after the TPV slides by.  This has higher upside but a lower probability.  

Together these 2 waves are likely our best chance at snow so far this winter.  

The negatives: 

Unfortunately the first wave is likely to be relatively weak, very progressive, and might have temperature issues.  But the reason I actually think that is the bigger threat is the second wave has an even bigger problem.  

We are kind of stuck between a rock and a hard place with this setup.  The reason the snow probabilities for 3" are only around 10-20" across our area despite what looks like fairly favorable precip/temp plots are the details.  A good looking plot like that means nothing if it got there by 1/2 the members with a warm wet solution and 1/2 with a cold dry one.  And that is what we have here.  

I know it's tempting to see some runs south and some runs cutting and thing...that puts us in a good place in between, but unfortunately the reason the vast majority of runs are one or the other with very few in between is because the in between solution is the least likely.  Once again there seems to be 2 big problems, very little interaction between the streams and no mechanism for the cold to resist if a wave starts to amplify, other then for the short period where the TPV is directly overhead compressing the flow.   

The problem with that setup is...if the TPV is directly overhead compressing it will suppress the wave.  But even in that scenario look at those runs...its not like there is some big area of snow to our south on most runs...there is actually almost no frozen precip on the northern edge of the storm on the southern solution members.  Again, no interaction between the cold and moisture.  IF the wave comes by before the TPV has exited and the flow relaxes it will simply slide south of us.  If it waits until the flow relaxes and phases it will cut.  There is a very very narrow timing window for the in between solution.  There are barely any members on the EPS/GEFS/GEPS with that in between solution for a reason.  

The analogs to the day 8 ensembles are mostly bad results.  There are a few dates we got a mixed event in our area from a wave that had significant snow to our north.  There are no big hits in the analog set.  This isn't a good look for a big snowstorm here. 

What I would want to see to feel more optimistic in future runs would be for there to be a healthy snowfall depiction on the north side of these waves at or south of our latitude, regardless of the exact track.  I don't care if it misses south...but if it does miss south I want to see some big snow dump in NC not some wave that is mostly rain everywhere. What good does it do us if that trends north...because the thermals will trend north with it and we just get rain.  I want to see some evidence that the STJ wave and the cold will have more interaction without phasing, because we won't survive a phase in this setup.  With out that there is very little path to a win here.  

Thanks for the write-up! Gives a great explanation of things to look for on future model runs. Even with all the imperfections, this chance still is better than what we've had (0, lol)

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11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Thanks for the write-up! Gives a great explanation of things to look for on future model runs. Even with all the imperfections, this chance still is better than what we've had (0, lol)

yes sir..our 7% chance is certainly better than our 0% chance

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3 minutes ago, GATECH said:

The trends at 12z were good!  Just a couple adjustments and the first little wave will peter out to the south and the next one is poised to cut to Cincinnati!  So close to no snow!  Let’s see what happy hour brings!

I know this is an attempt to be humorous, but if it works you will have to keep doing this. 

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2 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

Need some reverse psychology this year.  Maybe if we start a thread for the event(s) we can bring it home

How about threads for whenever it’s going to rain, or for sunny and warm!  My favorite is threads for cold and windy!  This could be a full time job for someone! …I am not volunteering, I have a full time job, plus I got to get the pool ready for summer, aka late February!

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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m more interested with the look at the end of the eps honestly. It’s not far from a look that could progress to an actual good pattern pretty quickly from there. 

Agreed the pattern leading up to mid month is looking more favorable on the latest EPS and CMC ens runs, and rolling it forward gives hope for the latter third of the month.

That said, I think the first week of Feb still offers a couple chances for a light to moderate event. Not a big storm pattern- never has been imo. I would be thrilled with a modest, well timed wave for 2-4.

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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Agreed the mid month period is looking more favorable on the latest EPS and CMC ens runs, and rolling it forward gives hope for the latter third of the month.

That said, I think the first week of Feb still offers a couple chances for a light to moderate event. Not a big storm pattern- never has been imo. I would be thrilled with a modest, well timed wave for 2-4.

Agree. I guess at this point I’m not hunting a 3” event, I’m looking for a pattern that can deliver a legit winters period. I’m not saying trying to even get close to avg that’s a lost cause, but the only thing that could even change my perception at all would be either a MECS event or a legit 10 day snowy period with like 15” over several events. 

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14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Agree. I guess at this point I’m not hunting a 3” event, I’m looking for a pattern that can deliver a legit winters period. I’m not saying trying to even get close to avg that’s a lost cause, but the only thing that could even change my perception at all would be either a MECS event or a legit 10 day snowy period with like 15” over several events. 

My thinking has been the latter half of Feb into March has potential, but the early Feb window should be good enough for 2-3 chances to legit get on the board(beyond a dusting). Because the pattern is so progressive with so many moving parts, it isn't very likely the same locations will get hit twice with frozen. At least one of the waves will probably dampen to nothing. Just give me one to get on the board properly. The initial wave around Feb 1 probably has the best chance as it looks now.

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