midatlanticweather Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We are too far south to just rely on cold. We need a mechanism for the cold to resist a southerly flow and the boundary trying to press back north where it actually belongs. Any wave will try to lift the thermal boundary. In this case the fact it’s cold at the surface won’t overcome the fact we’re ridging out at the mid levels which drive the storm track unless we get either extremely lucky with a wave that’s too weak to push north but just strong enough to clip us with some precip…wave 1 scenario on the euro, or get that high to time up dead perfectly so the storm literally slams into it like the 0z. Even in this setup we need a lot of help. It’s not actually a great longwave setup got a big snow here. It’s not impossible. We could get lucky. But it’s flawed. As soon as it gets complicated, we have the "too many levers to pull" as @Bob Chill mentioned before. We are not in a great spot, and, if we know anything, usually trends like this are just the beginning. I mean, maybe just one run, but seriously, the way this winter has been, it is a sign of continuation of cuts to the north and west. There is really nothing holding the cold from escaping. Perfect timing has to be the case.. odds are against it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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