stormtracker Posted January 26 Author Share Posted January 26 Drier than 6z down south tho...sense some squishing of the precip since the confluence is further south. Squishing is a bona fide weather term. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 12Z GFS is a SoMD special...we take it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Author Share Posted January 26 h5 map at 156, energy out west is a bit further west vs 6z. slightly Colder at 165, but precip angle is further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Author Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, IronTy said: 12Z GFS is a SoMD special...we take it. ? For which system, the first one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Author Share Posted January 26 Looks like suppression is going to be an issue. Moisture is moving from West to East, not SW to ENE 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Author Share Posted January 26 Too much of a good thing. It's sliding south of us, due east almost 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: h5 map at 156, energy out west is a bit further west vs 6z. slightly Colder at 165, but precip angle is further south Maybe the sun angle can influence the precip angle. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 the vort is less amplified and the TPV is farther S. both of these lead to a suppressed solution. I'd rather deal with that at this range than a cutter, though 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Author Share Posted January 26 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: the vort is less amplified and the TPV is farther S. both of these lead to a suppressed solution. I'd rather deal with that at this range than a cutter, though Truth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Everything has trended north this year. Not upset with the current presentation on the 12z GFS. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Not a bad place to be a week out on an op run considering the winter tendencies. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Still have another low hanging out down there at 180 hours, though? Edit: also suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 the main thing is that we have a legit southern stream wave and very cold air to the north. almost a Nino-ish look with that wave. you can get serious overrunning that way with a thermal gradient that strong 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: ? For which system, the first one? Monday "storm". Calvert county jack..if you can call 2" a "jack". These are hard times. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 THIS could do something, though. confluence rolling in with a much more potent wave than the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Author Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, IronTy said: Monday "storm". Calvert county jack..if you can call 2" a "jack". These are hard times. Oh yeah, that is a SoMD special...basically from DC south. I don't think it'll pan out that way, but who knows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Oh yeah, that is a SoMD special...basically from DC south. I don't think it'll pan out that way, but who knows Oh Canada? edit: it does phase at the end, but this is still a very intriguing setup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 The Canadian at 162 looks very very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Author Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: Oh Canada? edit: it does phase at the end, but this is still a very intriguing setup We just need it to shift north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Nevermind, it takes the Low due North from Louisiana....seems odd.....on to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 finally, a legit antecedent airmass to work with 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Author Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: Nevermind, it takes the Low due North from Louisiana....seems odd.....on to the Euro Yup..plows right NW like a cutter. Juicy system too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Plows and squished. These technical terms are why we are the best 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: finally, a legit antecedent airmass to work with Scours out fast anyway, but obviously not important at this range. 12z suite continues the hot streak thus far 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 10 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Still have another low hanging out down there at 180 hours, though? Edit: also suppressed Suppression is the last of my worries this season. Congrats Atlanta is fine with me a week out lol. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Have a feeling the Euro is going to show something very Juicy as well.....it does appear cold air damning and Ice is a possibility 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Alright, so we've got suppression train on the GFS, a monster cutter on GEM. So what will the euro do? split the difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 the reason why this cuts is because of a late phase with a vort coming onto the WC. if this is a phantom vort or is just like 12-24 hours slower, this is a monster storm. I'll consider this a good run 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Looks like some kind of Miller B Setup starting to unfold......details aren't important at this stage, run to run consistency and of course ensembles are more important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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