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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope


stormtracker
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4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Well ya better start believing it because the sooner you accept such an outcome the easier it’ll get.

I have muted expectations...but just going off of history...even we aren't THAT mediocre. If we can't break through with something big, I'd bet we'll get something where we measure just enough not to break that futility record, haha

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2 hours ago, WVclimo said:

You guys are funny.  You know how it’s gonna go.  Cold and blustery and damp in March.  Everyone will be crying when it’s in the 50’s most of April.  “Where’s our string of 75 degrees days with sunshine ?”

May will start out wet for the first few weeks and then we’ll transition straight into hazy hot and humid summer weather.

It’s rare to have the Spring weather everyone wants.

100% chance this happens.

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2 hours ago, WVclimo said:

You guys are funny.  You know how it’s gonna go.  Cold and blustery and damp in March.  Everyone will be crying when it’s in the 50’s most of April.  “Where’s our string of 75 degrees days with sunshine ?”

May will start out wet for the first few weeks and then we’ll transition straight into hazy hot and humid summer weather.

It’s rare to have the Spring weather everyone wants.

How would that happen with SE ridge being what it is?

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8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

You should know the pattern will be epic in late March but alas it will be too late and we will ask where this pattern was in Feb…take that to the bank

Yeah but again though...given this year? I have my doubts...what, is the dang SER gonna just suddenly disappear at the start of March? Lol I mean I know the nina is on the way out, but even still...ehh

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22 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Icon at end of run. still think gfs is out to lunch holding energy so far back. Think we’re closer to an event on the models then people think. Just gotta get lucky for once

8040bf61bec1010b46617fec7fe3a2d6.jpg


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The gfs is always out to lunch. They all are at long range. I can’t believe how much faith people put into long range forecasts, ops or ensembles. All the gloom and predictions of winter being over .. in January. SMH

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The gfs is always out to lunch. They all are at long range. I can’t believe how much faith people put into long range forecasts, ops or ensembles. All the gloom and predictions of winter being over .. in January. SMH

Absolutely agree with your point about the op runs and such. But I will say though...if you indeed maintain general optimism for the season even in the face of this...sir that is commendable!

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I'm gonna go out on a limb and say if next week does indeed fail it won't be from suppresion...I'd bet my next paycheck on that too if I were a gambler, lol Ain't no way with that ridge being what it is that the moisture gets suppresed! Now interestingly only the 18z gfs has shown a cutter...everybody else has shown moisture south. Something to watch, I suppose...

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Canadien tried to do the thing...a bit suppresed this run, but at least it ain't show another cutter (every model run that DOESN'T show a cutter for that time frame is good run, haha)

Yep, timing was a bit off with NS energy so it got squashed, but it wasn’t far off from doing what we wanted.


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The gfs is always out to lunch. They all are at long range. I can’t believe how much faith people put into long range forecasts, ops or ensembles. All the gloom and predictions of winter being over .. in January. SMH

It’s ridiculous man. It’s 1/25, models can’t get anything right outside of D7-10 and waffle back and forth every 6 hours, yet people are like “welp… February and early March are a lost cause!” Perhaps our bad luck continues and the rest of the winter is a shutout, but let’s analyze as we go along and not fill this thread up with the doom and gloom talk 24/7. We have a place for that on this subforum.

I know it sucks not getting snow, and yeah, it’s been bad before but “never quite this bad”, but I don’t fully buy that. It hasn’t been “quite this bad” since we began keeping records, and the periods that were awful during record keeping years were pretty damn close to being THIS bad. 6, even 10” of snow in any given direction when analyzing annual mean historic snowfall isn’t cause to jump off a bridge and say it’ll never snow again or say that we’ll never see a great winter again. That’s often the difference between hitting or missing on one nor’easter.

Last year was also rough holistically, but like cape said… we could have just as easily seen a 25-30” winter along the 95 corridor with some very minor tweaks to any given setup. We actually had a sustained period of cold and snow chances, but many of them hit NW, NE, or E of 90%+ of this sub. We had a ton of very near misses.

YES, let’s use this thread to analyze patterns and be brutally honest about what they mean for our weather, which as of late has typically meant no snow, but the incessant need to always say “we’re fucked” is speaking out of pure emotion. Let’s keep that talk in banter and the will it ever snow again thread. The doom and gloom is exhausting. I’m not talking about seeing an ensemble run and stating why a person thinks it means it’ll be hard to snow. That’s what this thread is for. I’m talking about the constant “it’s over” banter and talk of CC/AGW or how shitty the MA is for snow that follows that analysis.

This thread thrives when we analyze and have good discussions about teleconnections, 500mb patterns, etc. Otherwise we end up having to make another new thread after 1,000 posts because it’s another train wreck.

Apologies for the rant, but it’s frustrating trying to parse through all of the bullshit when you’re just trying to find useful analysis from members / METS in a thread that’s meant to be for analysis, not our feelings about lack of snow. I’m just as frustrated as the next guy about our luck the past 2 winters, but it’s the weather, and snow does still exist if peoples souls truly need to go see it. I took a long weekend to visit some buddies in upstate NY and saw a nice 7” snowstorm. It was refreshing.

Just hoping February into early march brings some snow so we this forum can get back on track. I appreciate folks like Cape, Heisy, PSU, brooklynwx, and others who attempt to analyze what they’re seeing on models and keep this thread on the tracks.
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