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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope


stormtracker
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I think the overarching conclusion is that the predictive value of long-term forecasting based on analogs appears to be growing less accurate with time.  We may have to come up with new indices or analogs that fit the new paradigm we're in.

That super-nino pattern in California shouldn't have happened.  Things aren't making sense anymore.

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11 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said:

I think the overarching conclusion is that the predictive value of long-term forecasting based on analogs appears to be growing less accurate with time.  We may have to come up with new indices or analogs that fit the new paradigm we're in.

That super-nino pattern in California shouldn't have happened.  Things aren't making sense anymore.

Subsurface in Nino 4 is about 10F above normal.. 65 degrees, not 55 degrees. I've found that the subsurface is more important regards to actual N. Pacific pattern in 0-time (D+0). 

Untitled.png.caa496e27ed75f3a23434633c11ab709.png

(You can also look at the pressure pattern that happened in Winter 87-88, in reverse, when the subsurface was total cold (<-5F) During El Nino (SouthUS-High Pressure)(as the best analog match).)

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20 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Subsurface in Nino 4 is about 10F above normal.. 65 degrees, not 55 degrees. I've found that the subsurface is more important regards to actual N. Pacific pattern in 0-time (D+0). 

Untitled.png.caa496e27ed75f3a23434633c11ab709.png

(You can also look at the pressure pattern that happened in Winter 87-88, in reverse, when the subsurface was total cold (<-5F) During El Nino (SouthUS-High Pressure)(as the best analog match).)

TRANSLATION for @Solution Man: Chuck believes that subsurface ENSO temps are more correlated to the real-time N. Pacific pattern vs surface temps (which tend to lag). So when subsurface is on fire (Jan 18), the real time response would be an El Nino NPAC result.  Hence the super-nino pattern in California.

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2 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

TRANSLATION for @Solution Man: Chuck believes that subsurface ENSO temps are more correlated to the real-time N. Pacific pattern vs surface temps (which tend to lag). So when subsurface is on fire (Jan 18), the real time response would be an El Nino NPAC result.  Hence the super-nino pattern in California.

Thank you for spelling out

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10 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

TRANSLATION for @Solution Man: Chuck believes that subsurface ENSO temps are more correlated to the real-time N. Pacific pattern vs surface temps (which tend to lag). So when subsurface is on fire (Jan 18), the real time response would be an El Nino NPAC result.  Hence the super-nino pattern in California.

I found no STJ correlation but there was a strong PNA correlation at 0-time.. fwiw

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I predict that we can't predict what this model run will depict. Jeahhh

I will take a stab at it. Feb 2nd to 4th period I will say 18z shows rain to snow 2-4" a lull then a follow up wave dumps 8-16" with temps falling into the 20's along with winds 30-40 mph with windchills single digits to below zero. 

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It’s time for a change of perspective…I am now rooting for a shut out!  Yes 0.0 in of snow, F it I don’t even want a trace.  It would be historic, maybe once in a lifetime, and the GFS runs are money.  Happy hour GFS run is awesome today!  Just need to work on that track for next Tuesday and we will get nothing!  After that hopefully everything cuts to Bismarck, ND!

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4 minutes ago, GATECH said:

It’s time for a change of perspective…I am now rooting for a shut out!  Yes 0.0 in of snow, F it I don’t even want a trace.  It would be historic, maybe once in a lifetime, and the GFS runs are money.  Happy hour GFS run is awesome today!  Just need to work on that track for next Tuesday and we will get nothing!  After that hopefully everything cuts to Bismarck, ND!

I’ll take it one step further. Let’s get some 60s and 70s in the long range and start Spring. I have had enough of 39 and rain today for the rest of this winter.

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4 minutes ago, GATECH said:

It’s time for a change of perspective…I am now rooting for a shut out!  Yes 0.0 in of snow, F it I don’t even want a trace.  It would be historic, maybe once in a lifetime, and the GFS runs are money.  Happy hour GFS run is awesome today!  Just need to work on that track for next Tuesday and we will get nothing!  After that hopefully everything cuts to Bismarck, ND!

If you were looking for a run that is just wonderfully awful that one takes the prize.  I see your logic however.   Not sure about once in a lifetime however.  

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7 minutes ago, GATECH said:

It’s time for a change of perspective…I am now rooting for a shut out!  Yes 0.0 in of snow, F it I don’t even want a trace.  It would be historic, maybe once in a lifetime, and the GFS runs are money.  Happy hour GFS run is awesome today!  Just need to work on that track for next Tuesday and we will get nothing!  After that hopefully everything cuts to Bismarck, ND!

Only 1 more month until it's March Madness tracking season. 

Later sunsets along with Bermuda High's and afternoon storms sounds pretty great, too.

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You guys are funny.  You know how it’s gonna go.  Cold and blustery and damp in March.  Everyone will be crying when it’s in the 50’s most of April.  “Where’s our string of 75 degrees days with sunshine ?”

May will start out wet for the first few weeks and then we’ll transition straight into hazy hot and humid summer weather.

It’s rare to have the Spring weather everyone wants.

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31 minutes ago, GATECH said:

It’s time for a change of perspective…I am now rooting for a shut out!  Yes 0.0 in of snow, F it I don’t even want a trace.  It would be historic, maybe once in a lifetime, and the GFS runs are money.  Happy hour GFS run is awesome today!  Just need to work on that track for next Tuesday and we will get nothing!  After that hopefully everything cuts to Bismarck, ND!

The only L depicted at 192 is in North Dakota.

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