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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope


stormtracker
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57 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

That fits the current regime. Like that early January thing last year.

 

56 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

You and I need to move back. We’ve Killed it for the northern crew. Not in a good way.

One of the reasons I hate progressive wave patterns is not just they are fools gold in that they might lead to a hit or two but rarely will they lead to a truly snowy winter on the whole, but for us they minimize our geographic advantage. 
 

SWFE in a progressive pattern really offer us no advantage over anyone else. Our elevation helps in marginal boundary temperature events but these waves the temps are really just a product of where a sharp thermal boundary sets up.  And we get upslope enhancement when there is an easterly wind component from coastal storms, a SWFE offers no advantage there either. 

 

We really lose most of our climo advantage in these setups. Doesn’t mean we can’t get snow from them. But we really are at the mercy of simple blind luck wrt timing like everyone else. 

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50 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This is the range where all season that systems have begun to morph, so I would be surprised if we don't see some sort of changes or fly in the ointment type deal over the next 24 hours. This does seem like uncharted territory this year where we actually have a fairly clean setup and a workable path to victory, so who knows....maybe this one is/will lock-in with just subtle ticks n or s. 

With other prior systems in similar range we either ended up with the SER being more stout, a rogue sw up top mucking things up, or like before Christmas the TPV morphed into an avocado and overwhelmed the wave. Not suggesting a major change here. Just noting that IF we are going to see this thing morph into something different it is going to be over the next 24-36 hours of runs. Otoh, if the looks hold, you guys south of lat 40 are in a really good spot imho where up my way we probably end up fringed.

GL with today's runs.....and may the force be with you.

How about this-

The western ridge amps up, folds over, and the avocado of doom tracks southward over NE bringing single digit temps to the MA and snow to Charleston SC.

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8 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

<>

I feel your pain, living just up the road from you. Since moving back to Maryland in 2016, I haven't had more than 6" of snow in one event. That being said, living in Monkton near the NCR Trail will definitely position you far better in the long term. Trust me, you're going to have events in the coming years where it snows more where you are than your old place. Plus you have the NCR Trail which is amazing in the snow.

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I feel your pain, living just up the road from you. Since moving back to Maryland in 2016, I haven't had more than 6" of snow in one event. That being said, living in Monkton near the NCR Trail will definitely position you far better in the long term. Trust me, you're going to have events in the coming years where it snows more where you are than your old place. Plus you have the NCR Trail which is amazing in the snow.

Truly hope so. I literally made this move with that as the hope and it has been...hilariously awful. The early January thing last year was particularly galling. 

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3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Truly hope so. I literally made this move with that as the hope and it has been...hilariously awful. The early January thing last year was particularly galling. 

Trust the Eskimo. We're just in a rebuilding year for snow. Our team looks positioned strongly in the long run. 

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17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

How about this-

The western ridge amps up, folds over, and the avocado of doom tracks southward over NE bringing single digit temps to the MA and snow to Charleston SC.

Precisely. We hope not but we all know this is nowhere near final yet as we have seen massive changes all season in less than 72 hours even. Buckle up.

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I am just trying to be real, not negative.

As you should! Call it as you see it man. The signal isn’t great verbatim. No denying that. It’s a weak wave that mainly showing southern tracks, but we’ve got time to see this thing come north and at least get an areawide 1-3”/2-4” type deal to calm some nerves.


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I am frustrated too, but come on everyone.  98% of the world’s population is poorer than us, malnourished, live in deplorable conditions, face wars and dictatorship etc.  If the biggest frustration in your life is lack of snowfall, consider yourself very blessed!!!!

Amen to that.


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1 minute ago, jayyy said:


The babiest of baby steps, but I’ll take it at range. Would much rather be hoping for a jog north than a jog south though given seasonal trends and the SERs inability to go away for more than a few days.


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The initial wave has actually trended colder overall from a few days ago. Cold comes in just ahead/during vs behind. That is a signal for 1-3" for N MD as it stands now, with places further south ending as snow.

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The initial wave has actually trended colder overall from a few days ago. Cold comes in just ahead/during vs behind. That is a signal for 1-3" for N MD as it stands now, with places further south ending as snow.

Oh for sure! The colder trend is definitely there. I’d take a 1-3” appetizer in a heartbeat. Some snowpack can only help our cause. I guess what I’m getting at is that the overall seasonal trend has been warmer / further north as we get closer and things already look marginal. Call it weather PTSD if you will


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1 hour ago, stormy said:

That's 20/20.............

@CAPE and @brooklynwx99 have been on this period for a LONG time now and giving detailed analysis of how it could play out.  So far they've done an amazing job of interpreting guidance to depict the coming period.  Nothing about their posts have been 20/20.  Here's a suggestion...why don't you try simply posting your own analysis without including unnecessary digs at others.  

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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

JFC WILL YOU ALL STOP COMPLAINING AND FIGHTING WITH EACH OTHER. ITS ONLY SNOW. So tired of this shit. 

It really should not be this difficult for anybody over the age of 15 or so to not act like petulant children. If they are going to act like this they shouldn't even be on here. Go get some sunshine or fresh air people. 

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We are headed South in here early today, my God we all need snow. Live in sucky suck suck western Prince William County and see how much snow you see. That’s right see, you need to look quick
What's wrong with west pw County? Isn't that basically Fauquier lol?
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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
48 minutes ago, Solution Man said:
We are headed South in here early today, my God we all need snow. Live in sucky suck suck western Prince William County and see how much snow you see. That’s right see, you need to look quick

What's wrong with west pw County? Isn't that basically Fauquier lol?

@BristowWx and @Wonderdogcan tell u, we suck at snow here

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