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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope


stormtracker
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Just now, Weather Will said:

Trying to find something positive in the 12Z runs

I try to be the most positive person here.  I try to encourage, to keep us hanging on.   Today, I got nothing.  No speech, no motivators, no nothing.  I'm tired (keeping you informed IronSalTy).   There's just no.....HOPE.  

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Surprised WW didn't post this, the EPS actually upped the ante on both waves, with a bit more of an emphasis on wave 2. Odd that none of the operationals have done much with the 1st wave lately, because the EPS and GEFS have been keeping it somewhat alive (I would separate the two but I am running out of upload space)

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-snow_ge_3-5447200.thumb.png.fceb8d6e0118be18f3fe2e215c31189a.png

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2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Surprised WW didn't post this, the EPS actually upped the ante quite handily. Odd that none of the operationals have done much with the 1st wave lately, because the EPS and GEFS have been keeping it somewhat alive, along with the second event. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-snow_ge_3-5447200.thumb.png.fceb8d6e0118be18f3fe2e215c31189a.png

Don’t you all have any real work to do?  :)

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2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Surprised WW didn't post this, the EPS actually upped the ante quite handily. Odd that none of the operationals have done much with the 1st wave lately, because the EPS and GEFS have been keeping it somewhat alive, along with the second event. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-snow_ge_3-5447200.thumb.png.fceb8d6e0118be18f3fe2e215c31189a.png

This is first time this winter I remember ensemble snow means trending UP within seven days. If Right, that is reason for hope. 

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I try to be the most positive person here.  I try to encourage, to keep us hanging on.   Today, I got nothing.  No speech, no motivators, no nothing.  I'm tired (keeping you informed IronSalTy).   There's just no.....HOPE.  

Just finished leg day and a nice protein shake.  I recommend dayvigo if you're too tired, oerexin inhibitors ftw.   Going to meadow mountain this weekend, I gotta bulk up to make sure the G can make it up the mountain.  

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I try to be the most positive person here.  I try to encourage, to keep us hanging on.   Today, I got nothing.  No speech, no motivators, no nothing.  I'm tired (keeping you informed IronSalTy).   There's just no.....HOPE.  

as long as there is no tear drop on your avatar...there is hope....please don't put it there unless we really hit rock bottom...once I see it I know its just over

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5 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Just finished leg day and a nice protein shake.  I recommend dayvigo if you're too tired, oerexin inhibitors ftw.   Going to meadow mountain this weekend, I gotta bulk up to make sure the G can make it up the mountain.  

I'm good on that.  Gym today, know my supplements.  I'm good.   Literal tired and figurative are two different things.   I'm all stocked up on the latter unfortunately.  

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5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS has some nice hits through day 8., so not fantasy range on ensemble. Keep hope alive at least until 0Z….

82CD6B86-BBCD-44ED-A097-27EC48D75CBB.png

00626908-B42C-4515-A527-A93C92808661.png

Didn't they have good hits 8 days ago too?

Folks, this all is the beginning of my origin story as a villain.   Turning the corner on this suck ass winter.

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm good on that.  Gym today, know my supplements.  I'm good.   Literal tired and figurative are two different things.   I'm all stocked up on the latter unfortunately.  

I got you, brother. It's been a rough winter.  We just gotta press through til April and enjoy the spring and the inevitable SER all summer long.

 

That said, if you ever find yourself wide awake at 2am, full of anxiety over the upcoming 06Z model runs, just let me know.  Dr. IronTy has the antidote you need.  

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5 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I got you, brother. It's been a rough winter.  We just gotta press through til April and enjoy the spring and the inevitable SER all summer long.

 

That said, if you ever find yourself wide awake at 2am, full of anxiety over the upcoming 06Z model runs, just let me know.  Dr. IronTy has the antidote you need.  

Which strain?

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19 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS has some nice hits through day 8., so not fantasy range on ensemble. Keep hope alive at least until 0Z….

82CD6B86-BBCD-44ED-A097-27EC48D75CBB.png

00626908-B42C-4515-A527-A93C92808661.png

I know some big game hunt. That's fine but  I would be thrilled with a region wide 2 to 4 event.

I like the big ones too but at this point I don't think a big one is in the cards for this season.

2 to 4 that isn't washed away by an inch of rain after the snow would be enough to take my kids sledding

 

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1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

I know some big game hunt. That's fine but  I would be thrilled with a region wide 2 to 4 event.

I like the big ones too but at this point I don't think a big one is in the cards for this season.

2 to 4 that isn't washed away by an inch of rain after the snow would be enough to take my kids sledding

 

I'd be fine with 1 to 3.  If we got a WWA, I'd feel like I was in the hills of Cali under a WSW for 100" of snow.

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The EPS did improve slightly which was enough to pretty much keep the probabilities the same from 0z since the EPS is the highest weighted in my calculations.  The GEFS and GEPS got worse.  GEPS is still the best of the 3 but it was even better at 0z.  

Remember this is through 0z Feb 6

Odds of 1" ,3", 6"

1/28 0Z:    51%,  27%,  9%

1/28 12Z:   51%, 28%, 11%

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18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Zinc picolinate, Magnesium Glycinate, B6, and add 2-3 mg of Melatonin if needed. Great all natural supplement cocktail for muscle recovery and a deep sleep with some wild ass dreams. 

 

antidepressants help too. just sayin

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