"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[Cold Miser]

...This is f.ucking awful. I'm closing the shades and disappearing until further notice.

Enjoy your damn eggnog in Hawaiian shirts, and speedos.  Merry fu.cking Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, and what ever else you do in the spring time weather.

 

[WarrenCtyWx]

27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If the CMC is right we have a better chance of seeing a tornado than snow

I think I would prefer severe weather over cold rain.

[ORH_wxman]

27 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Ewwwww. Lol, how the F does this happen so regularly. I don’t have the memory that some do on here. But I’d like to see the last 25 or so and see how it shakes out statistically. 

Off top of my head…Grinch storms since 1990 (defined as a torching cutter between 12/22-12/25)

1990

1993

1994 (this was actually a benchmark nor Easter but was subtropical so it was all rain even into NNE)

1996

2001

2003

2004

2006

2007

2008

2013 (this one stayed ice for a lot of NNE)

2014

2015

2020

 

 

 

I may have missed one or two. It’s happened a lot in the past few decades. 

[SnoSki14]

Happy New Year!

[ORH_wxman]

Ironically the 1980s were pretty good at avoiding grinch storms….but don’t look at the rest of those winters. 

[NorEastermass128]

Oh well...our annual Christmas tradition.  At least for the AEMATT, there's nothing for the Grinch to take away this year unlike 2020.

[weathafella]

1993 was quite the apps runner around the 23rd.  I think it actually snowed a bit on Christmas night but 3 days later we were off to the races.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

53 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Remember when the models had brutally cold air over is for Christmas Eve and day ? 

Coldest Christmas since 1980?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

If I see another 250 hour chart I’m going to scream.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Coldest Christmas since 1980?

Cut him a break, he’s been defunded. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

it’s all we got

[Baroclinic Zone]

Throw on some Bing Crosby and down a few eggnog edibles and enjoy your family.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Happy New Year!

God, I’d roll the dice with literally any other look at this point. We’ve done just fine without -NAO and all this other nonsense.

[JC-CT]

1 hour ago, MuddyWx said:

Nothing says Christmas like short sleeves and an umbrella

RIP umbrella

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Can’t wait till the pattern looks bad 

[cleetussnow]

Time to lock this thread for everyones sake. 

[qg_omega]

One of the worst December patterns in a long long time

[cleetussnow]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

One of the worst December patterns in a long long time

Last December was worse.

[Typhoon Tip]

This as is kind of reminds me OF an '80s storm....  

At least serviceable cold --> rain --> cold     There were several years there in that decade where it was just easier to give in an assume that's what would happen.  

What's interesting also, is that there were several exceptionally deep powerful bombs that just nicked the Cape but missed otherwise that decade... It was like there was this diverter in the field sending everything W or S ... seldom through the middle.   But, there were some.  We had pretty spectacular positive bust event in early February of 1987 I think it was...  Supposed to be 1-3" ending as light rain, and we got 10" in 4 hours with thunder.  Then there was the 'ZYSYGY' storm in '86 I think it was... that dumped 20" over interior eastern Mass. 

Here and now... I wonder if 'model magnification' may be overdoing this thing some.  I've wondered that from the beginning.  We don't need 962 mb lows to answer for a 'big signal' ... A 978 mb low over NYS will do just fine to standardize butt bang NE out of a white holiday, and still be sufficiently large to account for the D(+PNA) --> PNAP.  

This is also a situation where the signal is very real... but whether it affects this New England region or Michigan is coming down to the fact that the PNAP is biased W.   The ridge has gone back W or is going W, depending on which guidance, and so the wave comes in and rails SE too early to be an EC expression. That's it.  I suppose it can change.  Also, if the flow proves less amplified overall, you may gain some longitude back for just being a flatter significant system over one that takes a larger parabolic dive.

 

[Snowcrazed71]

I for one and fine with not being a big snowstorm for Christmas Eve. A few days before would have been great, but I don't want it to mess up the weather for Christmas Eve. Our family is getting together. Comment will all be together for the first time in years.

The other piece of the puzzle that I'm laughing about is, as I read all these comments on how there are people here writing things off and saying how it's going to be a torch at the new year or it's going to be a rainer for everyone before the new year??  We had no idea what was happening with this storm before we got here, we have no idea what's going to happen the week after. How the hell are you guys making predictions on what's going to happen by the new year? At this point. It's hilarious to watch some of you melting down over what's upcoming. Everyone here knows that there's going to be surprises. Everyone here knows that the models will change back and forth after Christmas. Collect yourself people. It's the weather, it's supposed to be erratic! 

:-)

 

 

[radarman]

At least it should be an easy thread title change.  

[ORH_wxman]

30 minutes ago, weathafella said:

1993 was quite the apps runner around the 23rd.  I think it actually snowed a bit on Christmas night but 3 days later we were off to the races.

Yeah we saved a white Xmas that year with about an inch of snow overnight 24th into the 25th after the 23rd apps runner wiped out our 5” pack that we had achieved on 12/19. Fun winter that followed. 

[Patrick-02540]

43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Off top of my head…Grinch storms since 1990 (defined as a torching cutter between 12/22-12/25)

1990

1993

1994 (this was actually a benchmark nor Easter but was subtropical so it was all rain even into NNE)

1996

2001

2003

2004

2006

2007

2008

2013 (this one stayed ice for a lot of NNE)

2014

2015

2020

 

 

 

I may have missed one or two. It’s happened a lot in the past few decades. 

So more often than not.  Follow the statistics.  

[MJO812]

Great job by the euro and cmc. They only showed the coast getting snow on  1 run.

[Cuteirishgirl25]

Christmas Day in New England 2022

 

 

[radarman]

I don't think it's too late to wrap this thing way up out west and occlude it.  

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

So more often than not.  Follow the statistics.  

Yeah recently. It wasn’t as egregious prior to that. There will prob a set of years soon where we avoid it a bunch of times. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, radarman said:

I don't think it's too late to wrap this thing way up out west and occlude it.  

If there’s one way to salvage the storm it’s prob turning it more into a SWFE where confluence to our northeast comes in stronger than modeled and the relay off the west coast comes in flatter. 

[Modfan2]

Post holiday GTG on deck at Waterfront Mary’s on Webster Lake? Lol

[radarman]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If there’s one way to salvage the storm it’s prob turning it more into a SWFE where confluence to our northeast comes in stronger than modeled and the relay off the west coast comes in flatter. 

At this range I wouldn't rule anything out, but for now I'd just like to mitigate damage in ski country.