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"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd


Typhoon Tip
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This may be a little early to begin a thread, but this signal's weight is excessive.  Large events often capture space/time in the technology, well prior to the longer term performance averages.  

This appears to be one of those times...  Having said that, this is only 7..8 days away, which a system of this type/scale and given to the above facet, moves the dial on that ( I feel..). Further justification - if needed - in the fact that the synopsis begins to scaffold by just 5 days from now over the NE Pacific, and then rapidly ensues that contortion of the local hemisphere into really ... excuse the hyperbole, a scenario that has one pathway out: 'through the cage' as they say in the Plains.

The PNA is rising ...most importantly it is reflected over the eastern limb, where is the relay from the Pacific --> N/A ... This drives a "jolt" local hemispheric index mode change, taking the Perennial North American Pattern aspect of the total PNA domain, and sending into a rather robust correction necessity. Ridging that has been absent more so than less, over western N/A burgeons over the continent.  The super-synopsis, where is the correction vector, is in fact pointed at something large, so as these operational models have been more on than off, with bomb implications, well duh.  

The 12z to 00z EPS shift in the means centered on 12z this next Friday the 23rd is nothing shy of exceptional. That much geopotential height implosion, combined with southward single run modulation geometrical layout is about as coherent as the current state of technology is capable at this range.. 

I am aware that the GEFs is are little more vague about this period, ...as are recent GFS operational runs.  However, the GFS also spend 2.5 days worth during the run up to the current affair... with 0 system!   It's not like there is no precedence for it losing systems in this range.   The super-synopsis with the teleconnector modality in the PNA now through the end of next week... coming from the GEFs no less, does not offer as much support for the GFS. 

So there's some heavy wording above -yup. However, that's in deference to the 'signal'.   I am however greater that 50% confident in at minimum a significant multi-faceted event.   There is some concern with "model magnification" ( I suspect this situation may transcend that performance snag, however) and the usual other assortment reasons to not go completely bonkers at this range. But I feel this is situation that enters the commitment to an event earlier than normal, the rest will decide the scaling and wheres. 

Man... that 00z EPS wih a 988 mb low near Cape Cod a 210 hours is really astonishing...  What concerns me about the GEFs is that it's "mode" is more intense and committed to a solution that the mean is appears to be vaguer... That's a red flag that outliers and skewing the signal - I don't like that when said outliers are against the supers-synoptic signaling.

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  • Typhoon Tip changed the title to "We're gonna need a bigger boat..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd
17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEFS still leave a lot on the table, actually....H5 low is still near Montreal.

Phase that in down near the BM...then we're talking.

 

1671850800-1jBacYNWuSk.png

 

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We need to shift that whole trough axis east about 150-200mi IMHO.

 

9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

With a block in the Davis straight could the upper low make it that far n and e?

 

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We can still get a decent storm, but that biblical idea that is being thrown about is not happening in our area without that trough axis moving eastward.

 

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Very valid question...correction vector is def. east.

 

6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Well maybe the question is whether the ridge out west needs to get a little further East.  But for me that often means a jackpot over sne, thus I prefer to flirt with disaster

 

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, one and the same. Trend has been to move that more bodily on shore, too...Tip mentioned it yesterday.

 

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  • Typhoon Tip changed the title to "We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

Excellent. This one has been on models going back to last week. Long and persistent signal for something high end, consistent with the pages and pages of pattern discussion going back to late November.

My bar is just a warning event here. Keeping expectations in check for now but the upper level pattern and airmass looks good at this range imo…

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44 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I am amazed how someone can get a 30” blizzard and follow it up the very next season with a visit to the psyche ward. 

I wasn’t talking about myself, but I’ll bite. 
 

Winners mentality. We’re onto the next. Last seasons blizzard was a great win, but we are focused on our next opponent, here at interior southeast mass weather.

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Peoples logic never surprise me , last year at this time folks wanted Baby it’s cold outside to be banned and Wet Azz P*SSY was the number one song at the time . 
 

Everyone sees snow differently, some are fine with their climo (they have made peace with it ) , I just don’t know if Taunton blizzard would be as skeptical  in woodford Vt at 2k, but people also sort of get used to what they average sometimes and what was once special is just normal . When I moved Back up from Florida I was cool with a 10” season and then my psychosis set in over the years . I want morrrrre. 

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38 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I wasn’t talking about myself, but I’ll bite. 
 

Winners mentality. We’re onto the next. Last seasons blizzard was a great win, but we are focused on our next opponent, here at interior southeast mass weather.

I totally get the next opponent idea..so I can understand that part. I’m already looking past this soon to be current  event, cuz I’m out of it it seems.  But when you clean up on a blizzard that left most of the forum holding the mud pie late last January …it’s hard to tolerate the pessimism all the time.  
 

We all lose(this storm for me) and win from time to time, so we can all understand the frustration too. But the excessive negativity is tough to take some times. 

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55 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I wasn’t talking about myself, but I’ll bite. 
 

Winners mentality. We’re onto the next. Last seasons blizzard was a great win, but we are focused on our next opponent, here at interior southeast mass weather.

The next low is onto Cincinnati

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49 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I wasn’t talking about myself, but I’ll bite. 
 

Winners mentality. We’re onto the next. Last seasons blizzard was a great win, but we are focused on our next opponent, here at interior southeast mass weather.

I get it but this isn’t a sport. We may act like it is but we have zero control over the outcomes. If some lived through more tough times weather wise, they’d have perspective. That and gummies prevent weenie psychosis. 

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