donsutherland1 Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 Much of the region saw the temperature top out at or above 70° today. High temperatures included: Boston: 69° Bridgeport: 72° Hartford: 72° Islip: 71° New Haven: 73° New York City-JFK: 72° New York City-LGA: 71° New York City-NYC: 70° Newark: 73° Philadelphia: 71° Providence: 70° Poughkeepsie: 70° White Plains: 72° Down South, Miami reached 90° for the second time this month. 2022 is the first time Miami has seen more than one 90° temperature in November. The old record of 1 day was set in 1941 and tied in 2002 and 2019. More warmth lies ahead. The warmth could peak during the weekend. Afterward, it could become cooler. However, no exceptionally cold weather appears likely in the East through at least the first 10-14 days of November. The first week of November will likely see a mean temperature of 60.0° or above in New York City. Since 1869, there have been just 7 prior years with such warmth during the first week of November: 1938, 1961, 1974, 1975, 1994, 2003, and 2015. All of those cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal November with a mean monthly temperature of 50.3° (lowest: 48.2°, 1974; highest: 52.8°, 2015). On a standardized basis, 6/7 (86%) cases were 0.5 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 49.4° average for the most recent 30-year period) and 4/7 (57%) were 1.0 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 51.0° average for the most recent 30-year moving average). There was no clear seasonal snowfall outcome following such a warm start to November. Four cases saw less than 20" of seasonal snowfall (1961-1962, 1974-1975, 1975-1976, and 1994-1995); three cases saw more than 30" of seasonal snowfall (1938-1939, 2003-2004, and 2015-2016). The lowest seasonal snowfall occurred in 1994-95 when 11.8" fell. The highest amount was 42.6" in 2003-2004. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around October 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was +2.99 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.499 today. On October 31 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.666 (RMM). The October 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.516 (RMM). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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