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November 2022


Stormlover74
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Much of the region saw the temperature top out at or above 70° today. High temperatures included:

Boston: 69°
Bridgeport: 72°
Hartford: 72°
Islip: 71°
New Haven: 73°
New York City-JFK: 72°
New York City-LGA: 71°
New York City-NYC: 70°
Newark: 73°
Philadelphia: 71°
Providence: 70°
Poughkeepsie: 70°
White Plains: 72°

Down South, Miami reached 90° for the second time this month. 2022 is the first time Miami has seen more than one 90° temperature in November. The old record of 1 day was set in 1941 and tied in 2002 and 2019.

More warmth lies ahead. The warmth could peak during the weekend. Afterward, it could become cooler. However, no exceptionally cold weather appears likely in the East through at least the first 10-14 days of November.

The first week of November will likely see a mean temperature of 60.0° or above in New York City. Since 1869, there have been just 7 prior years with such warmth during the first week of November: 1938, 1961, 1974, 1975, 1994, 2003, and 2015. All of those cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal November with a mean monthly temperature of 50.3° (lowest: 48.2°, 1974; highest: 52.8°, 2015). On a standardized basis, 6/7 (86%) cases were 0.5 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 49.4° average for the most recent 30-year period) and 4/7 (57%) were 1.0 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 51.0° average for the most recent 30-year moving average).

There was no clear seasonal snowfall outcome following such a warm start to November. Four cases saw less than 20" of seasonal snowfall (1961-1962, 1974-1975, 1975-1976, and 1994-1995); three cases saw more than 30" of seasonal snowfall (1938-1939, 2003-2004, and 2015-2016). The lowest seasonal snowfall occurred in 1994-95 when 11.8" fell. The highest amount was 42.6" in 2003-2004.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around October 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was +2.99 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.499 today.

On October 31 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.666 (RMM). The October 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.516 (RMM).

 

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11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Locations reaching or exceeding 70° through 2 pm include:

Atlantic City: 70°
Bridgeport: 72°
Farmingdale: 70°
Islip: 70°
New Haven: 72°
New York City-JFK: 71°
New York City-LGA: 70°
Newark: 71°
Philadelphia: 70°
Providence: 70°
White Plains: 70°

Separately, Miami reached 90° for the second time this month. That surpasses the November record of 1 day, which was set in 1941 and tied in 2002 and 2019.

Hit 72 at JFK and 73 at Newark.  I'm hoping we hit 80 this weekend!

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 66°

Newark: 69°

Philadelphia: 70°

Unseasonably warm weather will continue through the weekend.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 58.2°; 15-Year: 58.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 59.5°; 15-Year: 59.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 60.1°; 15-Year: 60.4°

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The next 8 days are averaging  61degs.(55/68) or +10.

While the GFS has some step-downs near the 10th, 13th and 18th{not shown}---the EURO continues its monotonous AN:(since Oct. 22 actually)

1667433600-ZTEFlsSUW2U.png

Reached 71 here yesterday.

Today:   66-70, wind s., some clouds, 58 tomorrow AM.

55*(80%RH) here at 7am.      60* at 10am.       62* at Noon.       64* at 3pm.      Reached 65* at 4pm.---5pm.     61* at 6pm.

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The latest guidance reaffirms that the region will see among its warmest to perhaps warmest opening week of November. After the warmth peaks on Sunday/Monday, there could be another bump up in temperatures later next week before readings head toward more seasonable levels. Meanwhile, frigid air will move into and cover much of western Canada and parts of the western United States starting this weekend. The question concerns whether that colder air will push into the East producing a meaningful period of below normal readings or whether only pieces of the cold will occasionally move into the East followed by a rebound in temperatures.

Whether Atlantic blocking develops could be crucial. With lengthening wave lengths, AO-/NAO- patterns can produce sustained cold. At present, the AO is forecast to remain positive through mid-month. However, if one looks at statistical outcomes following past cases of a strong polar vortex to conclude October (AO +2.000 or above), there has been a tendency for blocking to develop in late November.

image.jpeg.54f1ad2c13b4eeb1990f1c3d178c4d29.jpeg

If Atlantic blocking develops, a colder regime could begin to develop for the last week of the month. As perhaps a hint, the week 3-4 CFSv2 forecasts have turned cooler from those of yesterday--not cold, but cooler. The ECWMF weeklies that come out today could provide further insight. Given limitations of extended forecasting timeframes, any long-term blocking is considered only a possibility at present, as it has developed in past cases when late October polar vortexes weakened.

Overall, even if colder weather develops, the month will wind up warmer than normal overall. Should the blocking fail to develop, overall monthly temperatures could challenge record warm values.

 

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Today was likely the coolest day the region will see during the first week of November. Nevertheless, temperatures remained well above seasonal norms.

The November 1-7 average temperatures for select locations (through November 3 5 pm) are:

Bridgeport: 58.3° (Record: 58.1°, 1975)
Islip: 58.3° (Record: 58.1°, 1977 and 2015)
New York City-JFK: 60.5° (Record: 60.9°, 2015)
New York City-LGA: 62.5° (Record: 62.9°, 2015)
New York City-NYC: 61.5° (Record: 62.4°, 2015)
Newark: 62.3° (Record: 61.3°, 2015)
Philadelphia: 61.8° (Record: 62.5°,1974)

More warmth lies ahead. The warmth could peak during the weekend. Afterward, it could become cooler. However, no exceptionally cold weather appears likely in the East through at least the first 10-14 days of November.

Since 1869, there have been just 7 prior years with a November 1-7 average temperature of 60.0° or above in New York City: 1938, 1961, 1974, 1975, 1994, 2003, and 2015. All of those cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal November with a mean monthly temperature of 50.3° (lowest: 48.2°, 1974; highest: 52.8°, 2015). On a standardized basis, 6/7 (86%) cases were 0.5 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 49.4° average for the most recent 30-year period) and 4/7 (57%) were 1.0 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 51.0° average for the most recent 30-year moving average).

There was no clear seasonal snowfall outcome following such a warm start to November. Four cases saw less than 20" of seasonal snowfall (1961-1962, 1974-1975, 1975-1976, and 1994-1995); three cases saw more than 30" of seasonal snowfall (1938-1939, 2003-2004, and 2015-2016). The lowest seasonal snowfall occurred in 1994-95 when 11.8" fell. The highest amount was 42.6" in 2003-2004.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around October 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was +4.20 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.870 today.

On November 1 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.835 (RMM). The October 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.666 (RMM).

 

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The full list of November days at NYC (Central Park) that have exceeded 75F, organized by days of the month and in order where more than one. For November days without one, the record high is listed. The warmest value shown on days with entries will of course also be the record for that date. 

1st _ 84 (1950), 81 (1974), 77 (1982 and 2003)

2nd_ 83 (1950), 79 (1982), 77 (1968), 76 (1929), 75 (1971 and 2001)

3rd _ 79 (2003), 78 (1990), 75 (1936)

4th _ 78 (1975), 77 (1961 and 1987), 76 (1914, 1974 and 1994)

5th _ 78 (1961)

6th ____ (74 1948, 2015)

7th _ 78 (1938)

8th _ 76 (1975), 75 (2020)

9th _ 75 (1975, 2020)

10th_____ (74 2020)

11th______ (74 1949)

12th_ 76 (1879) warmest since is 73 1909, then 72 1912, 70 1927&38, 69 1964, 68 1982, 2020

13th_____ (73 1931)

14th_____ (72 1993)

15th_ 80 (1993), 77 (1973)

16th_____ (72 1928)

17th_____ (71 1953)

18th_____ (73 1921,28)

19th_____ (72 1921)

20th_ 77 (1985), (four years had 74, 1934,42,48,91)

21st_____ (74 1900) warmest since is 72 1931

22nd_____ (72 1931)

23rd_____ (72 1931)

24th_____ (73 1979)

25th_____ (73 1979)

26th_____ (67 1946)

27th_____ (72 1896) (warmest since is 64 on six occasions)

28th_____ (70 2011)

29th_____ (69 1990)

30th_____ (70 1991)

(All December)

 7th _ 75 (1998)

(4th 1998, 74; 4th 1982 and 24th 2015 72; 6th 2001 and 22nd 2013 71, 1st 2006, 5th 2001, 10th 1946 and 29th 1984 70) are the only other Dec maxima 70 or higher.

_________________

So there have been 29 days in November that reached at least 75F, and one in December. 

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9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today was likely the coolest day the region will see during the first week of November. Nevertheless, temperatures remained well above seasonal norms.

The November 1-7 average temperatures for select locations (through November 3 5 pm) are:

Bridgeport: 58.3° (Record: 58.1°, 1975)
Islip: 58.3° (Record: 58.1°, 1977 and 2015)
New York City-JFK: 60.5° (Record: 60.9°, 2015)
New York City-LGA: 62.5° (Record: 62.9°, 2015)
New York City-NYC: 61.5° (Record: 62.4°, 2015)
Newark: 62.3° (Record: 61.3°, 2015)
Philadelphia: 61.8° (Record: 62.5°,1974)

More warmth lies ahead. The warmth could peak during the weekend. Afterward, it could become cooler. However, no exceptionally cold weather appears likely in the East through at least the first 10-14 days of November.

Since 1869, there have been just 7 prior years with a November 1-7 average temperature of 60.0° or above in New York City: 1938, 1961, 1974, 1975, 1994, 2003, and 2015. All of those cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal November with a mean monthly temperature of 50.3° (lowest: 48.2°, 1974; highest: 52.8°, 2015). On a standardized basis, 6/7 (86%) cases were 0.5 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 49.4° average for the most recent 30-year period) and 4/7 (57%) were 1.0 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 51.0° average for the most recent 30-year moving average).

There was no clear seasonal snowfall outcome following such a warm start to November. Four cases saw less than 20" of seasonal snowfall (1961-1962, 1974-1975, 1975-1976, and 1994-1995); three cases saw more than 30" of seasonal snowfall (1938-1939, 2003-2004, and 2015-2016). The lowest seasonal snowfall occurred in 1994-95 when 11.8" fell. The highest amount was 42.6" in 2003-2004.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around October 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was +4.20 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.870 today.

On November 1 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.835 (RMM). The October 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.666 (RMM).

 

Looks like Monday November 7th will be the warmest day and we could hit 80 degrees!

 

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6 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

The full list of November days at NYC (Central Park) that have exceeded 75F, organized by days of the month and in order where more than one. For November days without one, the record high is listed. The warmest value shown on days with entries will of course also be the record for that date. 

1st _ 84 (1950), 81 (1974), 77 (1982 and 2003)

2nd_ 83 (1950), 79 (1982), 77 (1968), 76 (1929), 75 (1971 and 2001)

3rd _ 79 (2003), 78 (1990), 75 (1936)

4th _ 78 (1975), 77 (1961 and 1987), 76 (1914, 1974 and 1994)

5th _ 78 (1961)

6th ____ (74 1948, 2015)

7th _ 78 (1938)

8th _ 76 (1975), 75 (2020)

9th _ 75 (1975, 2020)

10th_____ (74 2020)

11th______ (74 1949)

12th_ 76 (1879) warmest since is 73 1909, then 72 1912, 70 1927&38, 69 1964, 68 1982, 2020

13th_____ (73 1931)

14th_____ (72 1993)

15th_ 80 (1993), 77 (1973)

16th_____ (72 1928)

17th_____ (71 1953)

18th_____ (73 1921,28)

19th_____ (72 1921)

20th_ 77 (1985), (four years had 74, 1934,42,48,91)

21st_____ (74 1900) warmest since is 72 1931

22nd_____ (72 1931)

23rd_____ (72 1931)

24th_____ (73 1979)

25th_____ (73 1979)

26th_____ (67 1946)

27th_____ (72 1896) (warmest since is 64 on six occasions)

28th_____ (70 2011)

29th_____ (69 1990)

30th_____ (70 1991)

(All December)

 7th _ 75 (1998)

(4th 1998, 74; 4th 1982 and 24th 2015 72; 6th 2001 and 22nd 2013 71, 1st 2006, 5th 2001, 10th 1946 and 29th 1984 70) are the only other Dec maxima 70 or higher.

_________________

So there have been 29 days in November that reached at least 75F, and one in December. 

That 80 on November 15th 1993 was so amazing.

I wonder what the 850 temps were on that day and what the weather map looked like. 1993 was overall one of our hottest summers too.  And the following winter was a full 180 degree flip lol.

 

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The next 8 days are averaging  61degs.(54/69) or +11.

Reached 65 here yesterday.

GFSens. offering some hints of normalcy and potential BN starting say Nov.12-13:

1667541600-w3dx2aLlMD0.png

Today:  66-70, wind n. to w. to s., variable clouds, 62 tomorrow AM!

56*(93%RH) here at 7am.    55* at 7:30am.     57* at 9am---Fog Variable 1mi-2mi.     60* at 10am-hazy     61* at Noon-fog in/out.       66* at 3pm.     Reached 67* at 4:30pm.      64* at 6pm.

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