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November 2022


Stormlover74
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Morning thoughts…

Morning fog will burn off and today will be partly to mostly sunny and very warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 69°

Newark: 72°

Philadelphia: 74°

Unseasonably warm weather will continue through the weekend.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 57.9°; 15-Year: 58.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 59.1°; 15-Year: 59.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 60.1°; 15-Year: 60.1°

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Newark moves into 5th place for the most November 70° days with a high of  73° today.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 
Missing Count
1 2020 7 0
- 1975 7 0
2 1994 6 0
- 1990 6 0
- 1953 6 0
- 1931 6 0
3 2015 5 0
- 2001 5 0
- 1982 5 0
- 1938 5 0
4 2005 4 0
- 1979 4 0
- 1973 4 0
5 2011 3 0
- 1974 3 0
- 1964 3 0
- 1956 3 0
- 1950 3 0
- 1949 3 0
- 1948 3 0
- 1945 3 0
- 1935 3 0
  2022 3 27
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Thick fog cloaked the coastal landscape during the early morning hours. Afterward, the sun burned away the fog and sent the mercury soaring into the upper 60s and lower 70s. High temperatures included:

Albany: 71°
Allentown: 71°
Atlantic City: 74°
Baltimore: 72°
Boston: 72°
Bridgeport: 67°
Concord: 73°
Hartford: 73°
Islip: 72°
New York City-JFK: 68°
New York City-LGA: 71°
New York City-NYC: 70°
Newark: 73°
Philadelphia: 73°
Portland: 69°
Poughkeepsie: 72°
Providence: 72°
Rochester: 73°
Syracuse: 74°
Washington, DC: 75°

The November 1-7 average temperatures for select locations through November 4th 5 pm, along with the November 1-7 records are:

Bridgeport: 57.8° (Record: 58.1°, 1975)
Islip: 58.4° (Record: 58.1°, 1977 and 2015)
New York City-JFK: 59.8° (Record: 60.9°, 2015)
New York City-LGA: 62.4° (Record: 62.9°, 2015)
New York City-NYC: 61.5° (Record: 62.4°, 2015)
Newark: 62.0° (Record: 61.3°, 2015)
Philadelphia: 61.1° (Record: 62.5°,1974)

Across western New York, northern New England, Ontario and Quebec, some record high temperatures were set. Records included:

Buffalo: 74° (old record: 73°, 1938 and 2015)
Caribou: 67° (old record: 66°, 1982)
Montreal: 68° (old record: 65°, 1956)
Ottawa: 69° (old record: 66°, 1938)
Quebec City: 61° (old record: 56°, 2015)
Saguenay, QC: 67° (old record: 58°, 1997)
Toronto: 69° (old record: 68°, 1987)

More warmth lies ahead. The warmth will peak during the weekend into Monday. Afterward, it could become cooler. However, no exceptionally cold weather appears likely in the East through at least the first 10-14 days of November.

Since 1869, there have been just 7 prior years with a November 1-7 average temperature of 60.0° or above in New York City: 1938, 1961, 1974, 1975, 1994, 2003, and 2015. All of those cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal November with a mean monthly temperature of 50.3° (lowest: 48.2°, 1974; highest: 52.8°, 2015). On a standardized basis, 6/7 (86%) cases were 0.5 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 49.4° average for the most recent 30-year period) and 4/7 (57%) were 1.0 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 51.0° average for the most recent 30-year moving average).

There was no clear seasonal snowfall outcome following such a warm start to November. Four cases saw less than 20" of seasonal snowfall (1961-1962, 1974-1975, 1975-1976, and 1994-1995); three cases saw more than 30" of seasonal snowfall (1938-1939, 2003-2004, and 2015-2016). The lowest seasonal snowfall occurred in 1994-95 when 11.8" fell. The highest amount was 42.6" in 2003-2004.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around October 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was -2.36 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.041 today.

On November 2 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.715 (RMM). The November 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.769 (RMM).

 

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Through this evening, the first week of November has a mean temperature of 61.5° in New York City's Central Park. The record of 62.4° was set during 2015. That record will likely be surpassed this year. At present, it appears that the first week of November will wind up with a mean temperature ranging from 62.4° to 64.1° (central estimate near 63.2°).

image.jpeg.d7781fe888082731a9fa1bc140d470fa.jpeg

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Morning thoughts…

Morning clouds will give way to partly sunny and very warm conditions. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 73°

Newark: 76°

Philadelphia: 78°

Unseasonably warm weather will continue through the weekend.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 57.6°; 15-Year: 57.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 58.7°; 15-Year: 59.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 59.8°; 15-Year: 59.7°

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The next 8 days are averaging  60degs.(54/67) or +11.

Maybe two BN days in the next 10:

1667606400-n0GgIAhUgCk.png

Reached 67 here yesterday.

Today:   71-75, wind s. to se., variable clouds, 66 tomorrow AM!!

62*(96%RH) here at 7am.       66* at Noon.       Reached 67* at 2pm.      Back to 66* at 3pm.      64* at 6pm.

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Several potential record high-tying or breaking minimum temperatures were recorded this morning.

Islip: 60° (Record: 56°, 1988)
New York City-JFK: 60° (Record: 60°, 1961 and 1984)
New York City-LGA: 63° (Record: 61°, 1961)
New York City-NYC: 64° (Record: 63°, 1938)
Newark: 61° (Record: 61°, 1938 and 1961)

 

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