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November 2022


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If the current guidance, including the long-range guidance, is reasonably accurate, November 2022 could wind up with a mean temperature of 49.0° or higher in New York City. Should such warmth be followed by low December snowfall (<6"), that would be a strong indication that December-May snowfall would wind up below normal. Winter 2015-2016, which saw no December snowfall following what was then a record warm November (now ranked 2nd warmest November) was an exception on account of a mega snowstorm a record 27.5" in Central Park.

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Return to the 70s for next weekend as we see a record 588 dm SE Ridge for early November emerge. Plenty of SSE onshore flow so coastal sections will be cooler. Newark would probably need more SW flow than the models currently show to have a shot at 80°.

49196492-BAC8-458D-91CD-38756607A83F.png.280bf9174b8f8c59ccb82fcb965a84c2.png
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Put the palm trees back out and shorts back on!! 

Hopefully we cool down in the second half of November and have at least one decent Dec snow event because as Don mentioned we’re likely doomed for winter if that doesn’t happen especially in a Nina which is typically front loaded. 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

We'll be pushing 80 this weekend into early next week

But that doesn't mean winter is over before it began. Dec 2015 was a blowtorch and then we got a massive snowstorm next month. 

yep but it was a 3 week winter-it torched  after the storm and winter never really came back....

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Hope reigns supreme that the very warm start to Nov ends up colder than normal so we can have back-back Oct-Nov below normal T (CP).  Then we need an average start to snowfall late Nov-Dec to have a chance at a normal snowy winter. Odds might be against us with the climate trends showing Dec warming the most of the winter months in recent years.  We just aren't very good at long ranging yet.  At least CPC has us in the storm track but not necessarily snowy. -NAO would help at the timely approach of storms. 

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4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Hope reigns supreme that the very warm start to Nov ends up colder than normal so we can have back-back Oct-Nov below normal T (CP).  Then we need an average start to snowfall late Nov-Dec to have a chance at a normal snowy winter. Odds might be against us with the climate trends showing Dec warming the most of the winter months in recent years.  We just aren't very good at long ranging yet.  At least CPC has us in the storm track but not necessarily snowy. -NAO would help at the timely approach of storms. 

The 2nd half will have to be very cold to offset the torch through 11/10. Guess it's possible 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy and warm. A shower is possible during the morning. Clouds could break during the afternoon. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 66°

Newark: 68°

Philadelphia: 70°

Unseasonably warm weather will continue through the week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 58.9°; 15-Year: 59.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 60.2°; 15-Year: 60.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 61.2°; 15-Year: 61.2°

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18 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Happens every year like clockwork 

Nobody is canceling anything.

December has become a home run hitter in the twilight of his career. May come through for you; but don’t bet on it.

 

Warm November followed by warm December usually means your winter is pretty much fucked.

Doesn’t mean that will happen this year.

I can tell you this though: you’re going to need a real cold second half to November to get this month below normal or even to normal. 

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59 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Winter 2015-2016 was a non winter…accept for one massive snow storm which immediately melted

This is what I don’t get, that winter was garbage, but sure we had one historic storm. I remember that winter being up at Killington Peak eating outside in February with terrible conditions. Proceeded to just drink beer and relax. The best winters are not even the most snowy to me, but rather they have a prolonged period of snow cover. Today just feels like late summer out. Humid and warm. Speaking of Killington, they are now behind with snowmaking and the Women’s World Cup race on Thanksgiving is already in jeopardy. 

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This is what I don’t get, that winter was garbage, but sure we had one historic storm. I remember that winter being up at Killington Peak eating outside in February with terrible conditions. Proceeded to just drink beer and relax. The best winters are not even the most snowy to me, but rather they have a prolonged period of snow cover. Today just feels like late summer out. Humid and warm. Speaking of Killington, they are now behind with snowmaking and the Women’s World Cup race on Thanksgiving is already in jeopardy. 

It’s always been a risky place to host a World Cup event so early despite their excellent snow making. Think where else in the world your racing at 3500-2000’, it’s usually at least 6,000’+.
What is worrying me about this winter is the drought coming back. We are back in that low precip pattern again. And seeing 01/02 used as an analog isn’t very comforting.


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The first 8 days of November are averaging  65degs.(59/71) or +14.

For the record, the next 8 are averaging 52degs.(47/57), or +3.     We could be near +7 or +8 at mid-month.

The GFS Ens. version of this diagram shows that the change near the 10th. is merely to a near Normal--- but still  + environment:

1667282400-Mce3zch9pbo.png

Reached 64 here yesterday.

Today:  66-69, wind w. to n., cloudy-clearing late, 59 tomorrow AM.

59*(99%RH) here at 7am.        61* at 11am.      63* at Noon.       65* at 1pm.      66* at 2pm.     Reached 69* at 4pm.        65* at 7pm.

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13 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:


It’s always been a risky place to host a World Cup event so early despite their excellent snow making. Think where else in the world your racing at 3500-2000’, it’s usually at least 6,000’+.
What is worrying me about this winter is the drought coming back. We are back in that low precip pattern again. And seeing 01/02 used as an analog isn’t very comforting.


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Definitely. This might be their first year where it just isn’t in the cards. It is risky but usually they get at least a window by now to really blast the guns. Not so much now. It will be interesting to see if the drought pattern comes back full steam. Lots going against this winter but my four year old wants to ski (and so do I). Although I am enjoying not burning money (heating oil) right now. 

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