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November 2022


Stormlover74
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Record warmth possible by this weekend. The models have a record breaking 588 dm ridge building over the area. Guidance sometimes shows too much onshore flow for Newark. So if this is the case again, then Newark could approach the 77° and 80° record highs. This warmth may come close to early November 2020 records.

 

11/5  77 in 1959  76 in 1994.  75 in 1961+
11/6 80 in 1948 77 in 1959 75 in 2015
11/7 78 in 1938 77 in 2020 71 in 2015+
11/8 77 in 2020 76 in 1975 75 in 1945
11/9 77 in 2020 75 in 1975 74 in 2021
11/10 76 in 2020 73 in 1999 73 in 1985+



More SW flow than forecast could allow Newark to beat guidance. 

 

73249D06-EAF6-41D8-A15D-A78B309C8474.thumb.png.20cf7964f62348a9e062372d3dcde8bd.png

 

C1A800AB-C10A-413F-BA7C-6E25495C1B3A.thumb.png.85a2cb85a7a05fd6834b84fd79669f4c.png
F69580B7-B9B3-4A33-95C7-CF6AB2CF8F15.thumb.png.0be14e690f426e7ff6b003b1fd9eb73c.png

 

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What will be among the warmest first weeks of November on record in many parts of the Northeast began with high temperatures topping out in the 60s in New England and 70s in parts of the Middle Atlantic region. Highs ranged from 61° in Caribou to 74° in Philadelphia.

Tomorrow will be another unseasonably warm day. Readings will again reach the upper 60s to lower 70s across the region. The warmth could peak during the weekend. Afterward, it could become cooler, but no exceptionally cold weather appears likely in the East through at least the first 10-14 days of November.

In contrast, a frigid air mass will likely overspread British Columbia and spill into Alberta this weekend and early next week. Vancouver could experience an early-season snowfall early next week. But with the Arctic Oscillation likely to remain positive though the first half of November, the East will see only glancing blows from colder air masses.

The potential exists for the first week to see a mean temperature of 60.0° or above in New York City. Since 1869, there have been just 7 prior years with such warmth during the first week of November: 1938, 1961, 1974, 1975, 1994, 2003, and 2015. All of those cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal November with a mean monthly temperature of 50.3° (lowest: 48.2°, 1974; highest: 52.8°, 2015). On a standardized basis, 6/7 (86%) cases were 0.5 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 49.4° average for the most recent 30-year period) and 4/7 (57%) were 1.0 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 51.0° average for the most recent 30-year moving average).

There was no clear seasonal snowfall outcome following such a warm start to November. Four cases saw less than 20" of seasonal snowfall (1961-1962, 1974-1975, 1975-1976, and 1994-1995); three cases saw more than 30" of seasonal snowfall (1938-1939, 2003-2004, and 2015-2016). The lowest seasonal snowfall occurred in 1994-95 when 11.8" fell. The highest amount was 42.6" in 2003-2004.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around October 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was +19.91 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.994 today.

On October 30 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.516 (RMM). The October 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.436 (RMM).

 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 68°

Newark: 70°

Philadelphia: 70°

Unseasonably warm weather will continue through the week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 58.6°; 15-Year: 58.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 59.8°; 15-Year: 60.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 60.5°; 15-Year: 60.8°

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The next 8 days are averaging  63degs.(57/70) or +12.

Gonna take at least until the 12th. to get to Normal or below it:

 

1667347200-nM5u0vpjaOQ.png

The most optimistic outlook for BN comes from the CFSv2---but is starts at mid-month:

1671148800-6dMWlt0Wcf8.png

Reached 69 here yesterday.

Today:  65-69, wind e., m.sunny, 55 tomorrow AM.

57*(80%RH) here at 7am.       60* at 9am.       62* at 10am.      65* at Noon.       69* at 3pm.      Reached 71* 4pm---5pm.        62* at 11pm.

 

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22 hours ago, bluewave said:

Record warmth possible by this weekend. The models have a record breaking 588 dm ridge building over the area. Guidance sometimes shows too much onshore flow for Newark. So if this is the case again, then Newark could approach the 77° and 80° record highs. This warmth may come close to early November 2020 records.

 

11/5  77 in 1959  76 in 1994.  75 in 1961+
11/6 80 in 1948 77 in 1959 75 in 2015
11/7 78 in 1938 77 in 2020 71 in 2015+
11/8 77 in 2020 76 in 1975 75 in 1945
11/9 77 in 2020 75 in 1975 74 in 2021
11/10 76 in 2020 73 in 1999 73 in 1985+



More SW flow than forecast could allow Newark to beat guidance. 

 

73249D06-EAF6-41D8-A15D-A78B309C8474.thumb.png.20cf7964f62348a9e062372d3dcde8bd.png

 

C1A800AB-C10A-413F-BA7C-6E25495C1B3A.thumb.png.85a2cb85a7a05fd6834b84fd79669f4c.png
F69580B7-B9B3-4A33-95C7-CF6AB2CF8F15.thumb.png.0be14e690f426e7ff6b003b1fd9eb73c.png

 

How does this warmup compare to November 14-15 1993?  That also occurred right around the NYC Marathon and was my all time favorite.

 

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22 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Essentially that winter was a non winter despite that 1 storm.

Over 40 inches close to 50 inches on Long Island though... 30-35 inches in the big storm, and a memorable heavy snow that caused a crain to fall in NYC and some nickle and dime events in February and then the Valentine's Day below zero outbreak.

 

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15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

What will be among the warmest first weeks of November on record in many parts of the Northeast began with high temperatures topping out in the 60s in New England and 70s in parts of the Middle Atlantic region. Highs ranged from 61° in Caribou to 74° in Philadelphia.

Tomorrow will be another unseasonably warm day. Readings will again reach the upper 60s to lower 70s across the region. The warmth could peak during the weekend. Afterward, it could become cooler, but no exceptionally cold weather appears likely in the East through at least the first 10-14 days of November.

In contrast, a frigid air mass will likely overspread British Columbia and spill into Alberta this weekend and early next week. Vancouver could experience an early-season snowfall early next week. But with the Arctic Oscillation likely to remain positive though the first half of November, the East will see only glancing blows from colder air masses.

The potential exists for the first week to see a mean temperature of 60.0° or above in New York City. Since 1869, there have been just 7 prior years with such warmth during the first week of November: 1938, 1961, 1974, 1975, 1994, 2003, and 2015. All of those cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal November with a mean monthly temperature of 50.3° (lowest: 48.2°, 1974; highest: 52.8°, 2015). On a standardized basis, 6/7 (86%) cases were 0.5 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 49.4° average for the most recent 30-year period) and 4/7 (57%) were 1.0 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 51.0° average for the most recent 30-year moving average).

There was no clear seasonal snowfall outcome following such a warm start to November. Four cases saw less than 20" of seasonal snowfall (1961-1962, 1974-1975, 1975-1976, and 1994-1995); three cases saw more than 30" of seasonal snowfall (1938-1939, 2003-2004, and 2015-2016). The lowest seasonal snowfall occurred in 1994-95 when 11.8" fell. The highest amount was 42.6" in 2003-2004.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around October 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was +19.91 today. The old record of +23.04 was set in 2003.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.994 today.

On October 30 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.516 (RMM). The October 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.436 (RMM).

 

Don if this lasts long enough maybe we can compare it to the amazing heat of November 14-15 1993 which also occurred right around the marathon

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Over 40 inches close to 50 inches on Long Island though... 30-35 inches in the big storm, and a memorable heavy snow that caused a crain to fall in NYC and some nickle and dime events in February and then the Valentine's Day below zero outbreak.

 

It was a terrific storm for your area but outside of that it wasn't much of a winter.  On Valentines Day my wife and I were at a hs basketball tournament. A guy showed up wearing about 12 layers of winter gear by the time he removed all of the winter gear it was time to go home...

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1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

It was a terrific storm for your area but outside of that it wasn't much of a winter.  On Valentines Day my wife and I were at a hs basketball tournament. A guy showed up wearing about 12 layers of winter gear by the time he removed all of the winter gear it was time to go home...

Wow, that sounds comical lol.  That was such a short lived period of cold too, I bet by the time he got all the winter gear off the arctic air had already started to leave.

 

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow, that sounds comical lol.  That was such a short lived period of cold too, I bet by the time he got all the winter gear off the arctic air had already started to leave.

 

Considering how warm that winter was it felt like Siberia that evening when leaving the gym..

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Temperatures at noon were running well above average. Many parts of the region remain on track to reach or exceed 70°. Temperatures included:

Albany: 62°
Allentown: 64°
Boston: 66°
Bridgeport: 68°
Islip: 66°
New Haven: 69°
New York City-JFK: 68°
New York City-LGA: 66°
New York City-NYC: 64°
Newark: 68°
Philadelphia: 67°
Poughkeepsie: 64°

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37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don if this lasts long enough maybe we can compare it to the amazing heat of November 14-15 1993 which also occurred right around the marathon

Temperatures likely won't reach the highest levels attained in 1993, but the first week to 10 days of the month will be among the warmest such periods on record in November.

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On 11/1/2022 at 7:02 AM, JustinRP37 said:

This is what I don’t get, that winter was garbage, but sure we had one historic storm. I remember that winter being up at Killington Peak eating outside in February with terrible conditions. Proceeded to just drink beer and relax. The best winters are not even the most snowy to me, but rather they have a prolonged period of snow cover. Today just feels like late summer out. Humid and warm. Speaking of Killington, they are now behind with snowmaking and the Women’s World Cup race on Thanksgiving is already in jeopardy. 

Forget snowmaking. Looks like mid month at earliest during nightime hours only

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Over 40 inches close to 50 inches on Long Island though... 30-35 inches in the big storm, and a memorable heavy snow that caused a crain to fall in NYC and some nickle and dime events in February and then the Valentine's Day below zero outbreak.

 

The most spectacular part of that storm was how it was all gone within a week.

 

And that really says it all

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Locations reaching or exceeding 70° through 2 pm include:

Atlantic City: 70°
Bridgeport: 72°
Farmingdale: 70°
Islip: 70°
New Haven: 72°
New York City-JFK: 71°
New York City-LGA: 70°
Newark: 71°
Philadelphia: 70°
Providence: 70°
White Plains: 70°

Separately, Miami reached 90° for the second time this month. That surpasses the November record of 1 day, which was set in 1941 and tied in 2002 and 2019.

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5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

It would be great if it stays warm for most of November, and then flips just in time to get some snow in early December. 

Enjoying every minute of this late fishing weather! Bass are still in by the tip of the hook. Cold weather is useless for us now, save it for December 

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Enjoying every minute of this late fishing weather! Bass are still in by the tip of the hook. Cold weather is useless for us now, save it for December 

Excellent! That sounds great.  I'm doing everything I can to enjoy this late season warmth as well. Went for a 7 mile run today. Tomorrow I'm going to do bow hunting, and friday I'm going up to Swartswood Park to do some hiking. Gotta take advantage of this spectacular weather while we still have it. 

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