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November 2022


Stormlover74
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Noting 55 kt  recently at KALB.  Also G42 kt at LGA, 41 KT KGON validating the numerous coastal CT and LI weather flow reports of 40KT+.  Only 1 LSR report out of OKX so far.  

Posting the NYS mesonet data so far today as of 640PM.  My estimation is that these values while professionally sited, are in my mind a bit conservative and may not be representative of power outage results in NYS.  These may be excellent relationship to FACE wind gusts, however gusts in tree crowns 20-60 feet above ground tend to be higher (resulting in damaged branches etc). 

 

Screen Shot 2022-11-30 at 6.44.35 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-11-30 at 6.49.56 PM.png

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The front came through roughly around 6, when the wind shifted from the South to West to North, fairly quickly. In the past half hour, we have dropped about 5 degrees. it is already at 50.7, which is at least a few degrees lower than all the models seemed to prog for our location at this time. I upgraded to Windy.com premium today (it's fairly inexpensive), and it is interesting comparing what all the 6 different models predict for our specific location. They all certainly got the exact timing of the wind shifting correct. We have a lot of trees, so it does affect our intensity here a bit. We did record over 27, while our neighbor peaked at 30. Our rain gauge measured 0.86, but he recorded a bit over an inch. We are in NW Suffolk, just off LI Sound, a few miles west of Sunken Meadow.

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New York City had a monthly mean temperature of 50.9° in November. That was 2.9° above normal.

December could start mild overall. With the development of an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern, colder air intrusions could become more frequent after the first week of December. The potential for snowfall could also begin to increase.

The latest guidance suggests that the AO could fall to -3.000 or below during the second week of December. Since 1950, there were 24 cases that saw the AO reach -3.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 6.2" (Median: 6.0"). 50% of such cases saw December wind up with 6.0" or more snow (25% saw 10.0" or more). In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). In those cases, 21% of years saw December snowfall of 6.0" or more while 8% saw 10.0" or more snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +27.80 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.836 today.

On November 28 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.594 (RMM). The November 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.744 (RMM).

 

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