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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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Looks like a PRE setting up from Fort Myers east through Orlando on down to southern tip of Florida, including Miami.

Model guidance could really be under-estimating the rainfall threat if not keying on this feature. Looks like moderate to heavy rain continues in this area through landfall, some 48 hrs out…

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I disagree on this being a predecessor rainfall event. That's not a distinct area of rainfall separated from the TC. The radar rainfall is continuous and Miami is fairly close to Ian. 

PREs are coherent mesoscale regions of heavy rainfall, with rainfall rates ≥100 mm (24 h)−1, that can occur approximately 1000 km poleward of recurving tropical cyclones (TCs). PREs occur most commonly in August and September, and approximately 36 h prior to the arrival of the main rain shield associated with the TC.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258420587_Predecessor_Rain_Events_ahead_of_Tropical_Cyclones

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13 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Looks like a PRE setting up from Fort Myers east through Orlando on down to southern tip of Florida, including Miami.

Model guidance could really be under-estimating the rainfall threat if not keying on this feature. Looks like moderate to heavy rain continues in this area through landfall, some 48 hrs out…

Yea that's my concern too, especially further inland.

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5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I disagree on this being a predecessor rainfall event. That's not a distinct area of rainfall separated from the TC. The radar rainfall is continuous and Miami is fairly close to Ian. 

PREs are coherent mesoscale regions of heavy rainfall, with rainfall rates ≥100 mm (24 h)−1, that can occur approximately 1000 km poleward of recurving tropical cyclones (TCs). PREs occur most commonly in August and September, and approximately 36 h prior to the arrival of the main rain shield associated with the TC.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258420587_Predecessor_Rain_Events_ahead_of_Tropical_Cyclones

Joaquin being the premier example (although ultimately the hurricane went OTS)

saproj-sc-hurricane-joaquin-radarmap.jpg

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Ian is holding up very well on IR, maintaining cold cloud tops around the core. bit of a NNE jog on radar, overall motion is barely W of due north. Ian is passing over the highest terrain on its crossing now, so the eye may get a bit of a ragged look for a bit until it re-emerges.

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21 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I disagree on this being a predecessor rainfall event. That's not a distinct area of rainfall separated from the TC. The radar rainfall is continuous and Miami is fairly close to Ian. 

PREs are coherent mesoscale regions of heavy rainfall, with rainfall rates ≥100 mm (24 h)−1, that can occur approximately 1000 km poleward of recurving tropical cyclones (TCs). PREs occur most commonly in August and September, and approximately 36 h prior to the arrival of the main rain shield associated with the TC.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258420587_Predecessor_Rain_Events_ahead_of_Tropical_Cyclones

Call it what you want. If Florida was 300 miles NE you’d be seeing heavy rain there. But no obs over the Atlantic. This feature extends back west, closer to the TC. There’s clearly a non-tropical enhanced forcing taking place in the region I mentioned. With the delta T/delta n delta Td/delta n down there you’re going to see Synoptic driven forcing more like what we see in the mid latitudes and north. Bank on it.

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411 
WTNT34 KNHC 271156
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...IAN BATTERING WESTERN CUBA WITH HIGH WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING 
STORM SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 83.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NNE OF THE CITY OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
ABOUT 130 MI...240 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa
* Bonita Beach to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Flamingo to Bonita Beach
* Suwannee River to the Anclote River
* Volusia/Brevard County Line south to Jupiter Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Aucilla River to Anclote River
* Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line
* Saint Johns River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass
* Altamaha Sound to Volusia/Brevard County line
* Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and
the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located by 
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft, Cuban and Key West radar data near 
latitude 22.6 North, longitude 83.6 West. Ian is moving toward the 
north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue 
today.  A turn toward the north-northeast with a reduction in 
forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday.  On the forecast 
track, the center of Ian is expected to emerge over the southeastern 
Gulf of Mexico in a couple of hours, pass west of the Florida Keys 
later today, and approach the west coast of Florida within the 
hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated near 125 mph (205 km/h) with 
higher gusts.  Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Little change in strength is expected while
Ian moves over Cuba.  Strengthening is expected later this morning
after Ian emerges over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Ian is
forecast to approach the west coast of Florida as a dangerous major
hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.05 inches) 
based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Anclote River to Bonita Beach, FL including Tampa 
Bay and Charlotte Harbor...5-10 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River... 5-8 ft
* Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL... 4-7 ft
* Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound including
St. Johns River...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
* Aucilla River to Suwannee River...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
* Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet
above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of
onshore winds in the hurricane warning area early today.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in
Cuba through this morning. Destructive winds are expected where the
core of Ian moves across western Cuba. Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba today.

Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida
within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday morning, with
tropical storm conditions possibly beginning by late today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area
along the southwest coast of the Florida peninsula by this evening,
and along the west coast north of the Tampa Bay area and along
portions of the east coast of Florida on Wednesday. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday,
and tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm
Watch area on Wednesday into early Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the
lower and middle Florida Keys beginning later today.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through
Thursday night:

* Western Cuba: 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals up to 16
inches. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in
areas of higher terrain over western Cuba.
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 4 to 6 inches, with isolated 
totals up to 8 inches
* Central West Florida: 12 to 16 inches, with isolated totals up to
24 inches.
* Northeast Florida and the remainder of the Central Florida
Peninsula: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated totals up to 12 inches.

Heavy rainfall is expected to affect the southeastern United States 
Friday and Saturday.

Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding are expected
mid-to-late week across central and northern Florida, southern
Georgia, and coastal South Carolina, with significant, prolonged
river flooding expected across central to northern Florida. Flash
and urban flooding are also expected with rainfall across southern
Florida through mid week. Limited flash and river flooding is
expected over portions of the southeastern United States into the 
Mid-Atlantic mid-to-late week.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today through Wednesday across
the Florida Keys and the southern and central Florida Peninsula.

SURF:  Swells generated by Ian are affecting the western Caribbean,
and will begin to affect the Florida Keys today, and will spread
northward throughout the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and
Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


 

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06z Euro making landfall at Sarasota/Bradenton and 24 hours later only getting to Lakeland which is only 50 miles away.  Although this run initializes at 989 mb over Cuba so not sure if the wrong intensity would affect the track.

ec-fast_ow850_seus_fh0-72.gif

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Assuming track is south of TB headlines for this area will likely be extensive rain driven flooding and downed trees into structures.  Some of the QPF outputs on the overnight model runs are ridiculous.  Looks like 20+ is possible if the track and slowdown verifies.

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3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

It's currently moving NNE

Screenshot_20220927-081312.png

The long term motion isnt going to be NE, yet.   However, lets see what happens once it clears cuba, land masses(mountainous terrain not required) in the tropics can do strange things to deep tropical systems with intensity and thus steering.  

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I traveled to Lakeland to stay with our son. Looks like euro says I’m gonna have front row seats. Without storm surge of course,  

 New evacs now issued for western Lee County (including Sanibel & Captiva). impacts could be MUCH bigger Venice, Punta Gorda, Fort Myers than had previously been anticipated.    impacts begin tomorrow, worst tomorrow afternoon through Thursday morning.

 

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Just now, dan11295 said:

I looked at the 0z Euro, (but not 6z yet) at it also shows some stalling, a bit of a stall at the coast then again in Central Florida. 

It seems to be back on a N trajectory, the past half hour or so. It was moving a bit east earlier, but also wobbling as one might expect.

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10 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Try as I can I still don’t see a NÉ component to motion on radar.  Sort of straight North. Is there a loop that shows this better?  I’m going by keys radar 

Nah…Key West radar is as good as you’ll get. It’ll clear up more as it gets closer to KW 

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22 minutes ago, jlauderdal said:

The long term motion isnt going to be NE, yet.   However, lets see what happens once it clears cuba, land masses(mountainous terrain not required) in the tropics can do strange things to deep tropical systems with intensity and thus steering.  

Yeah the frictional effects can cause the eye and movement of the storm to dance it and act wonky sometimes. We've seen this plenty of times with hurricanes around the Caribbean islands

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44 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The closest analogue we have is estimated to cause 75 billion in damage (based on a study in 2018) and last time this occured, the entire island of fort Myers beach was under 3-6 ft of water:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1944_Cuba–Florida_hurricane

New to Florida, but people keep telling me this is similar to Charley...

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6z Euro looks a hair NW compared to 0z, splitting hairs at this point. Sarasota-Venice is at highest landfall risk at the present time. 12z guidance on tropical tidbits is basically all calling for a landfall now. Anyone in the cone needs to be prepared for a landfalling major hurricane.

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Someone from Tampa would know this but wouldn't a landfall just south be a problem for places like eastern coastal St Pete and Pinellas point be vulnerable as a E-NE fetch of 50 plus knots pushes water across the bay...obviously you would not be piling water in advance from the Gulf but I imagine a nasty 3-4 foot surge could still happen

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