floridapirate

Ive seen one flash freeze in my life despite the many calls for one. Im banking on the latter.

I read Artemis was rated to 80mph, interesting to see what next steps are after the storm moves out

It will probably, but then again it might not. With the storm track today there is a 50-50 chance of cancellation.

Time to start reading the annual predictions of a historically cold and snowy winter.

This is another model posted 26 Sep on the Ian thread by a professional met (Board Member). Monday afternoon prior to the storm starting in 48 hours and Ft Myers/Naples is relatively safe. If you were a resident and asked to evacuate, you probably would look at this and decide to stay. In addition, look at the actual result of onshore at Ft Myers, off shore at Cape Canaveral and consider how far off the models were.

I grabbed this from the Ian discussion page. Point is, Ft Myers and Naples was "safe", not center of the storm

This map was posted on 25 Sep, 48 hours before the storm (pulled from the Ian thread). South and east was the way to evacuate, Tampa is on the southern edge of the cone. Ft Myers/Naples isnt even the cone at this point. Forecasting was poor on this one.

The discussion needs to focus on the forecast, which was marginal at best. Only 24 hours before was the storm 1) forecasted to come ashore south of Tampa and 2) 1 forecast model called for the storm to track basically along I-4. And that model was an inhouse model from the Orlando NBC affiliate. My son in Tampa was planned to evacuate to a friend's house near Naples and decided to ride it out and glad he did. Had he evacuated on Monday to Naples, he would have put himself in the bullseye. Blaming politicians of any party for not evacuating Ft Myers earlier is absurd when Monday & Tuesday's forecast had Tampa in the bullseye

Does it matter if it has tropical characteristics? If it has hurricane winds, its a hurricane

This isnt unique to Florida, every barrier island on any body of water is experiencing the same thing.

I think the point is that its lazy to characterize every strong storm, every heatwave, every strong winter storm as climate change related. And that is a fair point.

Well, that still will happen. Do you think residents of Tampa and north will be evacuating the next time around when they got minimal effects? Highly doubt it.

I can vouch for that. We moved inland near Deland, sustained strong winds, 12"+ inches of rain and still pouring.

I agree with #1. As for #2, by the time people react to pictures on a TV, its far too late.

I dont know why reporters think we need to see them standing in 100 MPH winds. Its just plain stupid.

It looks really bad, but I take what Siedel says with a grain of salt after watching him "struggle" in wind while people walked behind him. He may be telling the truth, hard to tell.

Does that signify something?

New to Florida, but people keep telling me this is similar to Charley...

Sure, if it hits, he can take credit and if it doesnt good for everyone, something changed. Its a win-win

That's strange. Its one thing to like the chase, its another to want landfall and damage for the area

Ok, what is a "lemon"?

Its all about clicks generating dollars. Let me guess, his winter forecast is calling for unusual cold and heavy snows, perhaps of biblical proportions? He knows what sells and does just enough right to justify the subscription.

I live near New Smyrna Beach and we have had less than 4" of rain in the last 6 weeks. This is supposed to be the rainy season

There have been waves of dust coming off the African coast. I'm new to this and to FL...Is this normal activity for this time of the year? I'm told it can dampen tropical activity, is this true?

its easy not to look at past 84 hours...