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Hurricane Ian


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2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Joaquin being the premier example (although ultimately the hurricane went OTS)


Floyd was another great example over NJ.  Lived through that and it was a disaster over parts of NNJ.  Floyd itself was a shell of itself with is arrived up into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.  Parts of NNJ had up to 12" rainfall.

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17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Agree. There's already going to be significant issues with the fetch and places like Charleston are extremely vulnerable even when there isn't a major storm. I'd still be watching this closely in coastal GA and SC, and I know that folks like @GaWx are all over it.  

Yup, Charleston is already forecasted to reach major flood stage on Thursday just from the northeasterly fetch. Their third highest water level was from Irma when the center was in southwestern Georgia. Ian’s wind field is not going to be as large as Irma’s, but a track overwater toward the SC coast would push saltwater flooding even higher. 

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Def appears to be ever so slightly east of due north now. Just taking a tour of the models, some show it bending/almost being sucked inland and others bounce it around the coastline for a while. Going to be a tough landfall to pinpoint. If I had to guess I would go with Bradenton on a NNE heading.

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6 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

That's an amazing structure for having just crossed over Cuba. Do you think cat 5 is on the table?


It’s looking better upon exit than charley ever did. If it stays low and landfalls early it could be a very high end impact. 

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