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July 2022 Disco/obs/etc


Torch Tiger
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22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's so far out in time that these bodily shifts west and east with the ridge nodal axis has to be acceptable, too.  This rendition builds it over Iowa, but like you noticed, still 850mb +22Cs skirt over SNE. 

Until the telecon stops concertedly correcting the PNA from +1.5 SD all the way down to .-5 SD ( total of 2 SD!) between D's 6 and 12, I'm gonna go ahead and assume that we're still in the game for major heat departures.   These models sometimes do this ... They might sniff out an early long lead risk idea, then it seems it's a week of invention trying to come up with any plausible excuse not to succeed the original risk idea... Only to bring it back once they've run the gambit of failed offsets.  It's more noticeable in big winter storms.. We'll see, but the telecons say not to let guard down   

"Still in the game" is not forecast, mind us... Just that the NAO is also rising, which is a better marker for lifting the westerlies in latitude over the EC ..so mixing PNA mode change up together tells me that these recent runs are both suspect.  That and that 9 days out thing - LOL  

EPS is 582 thickness on the mean. That’s nuts 

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I get the sense when looping all three of the ens mean majors, that what's going on is that yes...  there is an important to perhaps major heat signal trying to emerge out there beyond D7.  However, it's straddling the 'projection horizon' - beyond which the means begin to run home to the baseline climo structures - so they lose it.  Like, the D7 ..8 aspects are on this side of that uncertainty horizon, and the latter aspects... the ens means lose because their collective noisy mean ends up pulling the ridge west toward the Perennial North American Pattern ( PNAP) base-line. 

The EPS formulates a nasty 594 dm close circumvallate that precariously nears 600, centered over the Ohio Valley... It wobbles it around there for 48-60 hours and then slowly it retrogrades toward Colorado over beyond 240 hours, en masse.  That's not likely to do that at that scale and probably is a function of time and fractal accumulation among the contributing members.  Canceling all forces out, we're left with the PNAP...etc.  They're all doing that.  

In other words, this is still just too far out in time.  Duh 

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3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I can’t believe how brown and crisp parts of my lawn are.  Other parts in shaded areas are fine.  

ha, that description is making me hungry for toast

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7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I can’t believe how brown and crisp parts of my lawn are.  Other parts in shaded areas are fine.  

Even the nicest lawns in town are now looking pretty crisp.  The long range does not look real wet either.  Hit or miss thunderstorms are not going to cut it, the entire state needs a good soaking synoptic rain.

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Even the nicest lawns in town are now looking pretty crisp.  The long range does not look real wet either.  Hit or miss thunderstorms are not going to cut it the entire state needs a good soaking synoptic rain.

My neighbor is spending oodles of money watering his lawn and all for a lost cause.  It's going dormant.

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54 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Even the nicest lawns in town are now looking pretty crisp.  The long range does not look real wet either.  Hit or miss thunderstorms are not going to cut it, the entire state needs a good soaking synoptic rain.

We're on to Tropicana season at this point for anything appreciable. 

I don't think I've cut my lawn since mid June 

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I will say being down there, there’s a lot of golden brown lawns everywhere.  Driving to Fenway along the Charles River in Boston, every single park looked like something out of the dust bowl. Just golden wheat color ground, kids playing in dusty rags for clothes like the parents gave up washing them, and building sand castles where their soccer fields used to be.

Tumbleweeds blowing across the rotary circles, men dressed as Jesus holding signs that say “Stein 7:22” like it’s a Bible verse. Handing out pamphlets.

Store’s even selling “Stein Pants.”  Forget Gore-Tex and moisture wicking technology… this material will keep you wet and damp all day long.  The men’s Stein Pant by Obermeyer.

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12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Back up north… 79/55.  About how you draw up a late July day.

Pretty much the whole drive from CT to N.VT the car showed mid-70s high spots on I-89 to low 80s on I-91 in Mass.  75-83F variety day.

Did you get a beach day in?

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With .27 rain for the month this is my driest month ever since I started keeping records here at the Moosup/Sterling border(2001)
That's very little precip. We've made up for some of our deficit and are at 3.68" on the month.

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

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39 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

That's very little precip. We've made up for some of our deficit and are at 3.68" on the month.

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

I'm only about 10 inches behind last July.

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This has to be the most boring past five months of weather locally that I can recall throughout my entire life. We can't even muster up tropical delusions of grandeur because there hasn't been a bonafide tropical cyclone. 

I know you'll disagree but for me, I don't mind.  Allows focus on other things.  Start focusing on late Summer/Fall for any tropical threats.

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