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July 2022 Disco/obs/etc


Torch Tiger
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50 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I fully expect some sort of cave by the euro..but that might mean you get little and I get like .2 or something. wheee

 

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sometimes convection tends to rob the moisture so I’ll sell the euro to some extent.

I’m sure the euro will cave. I’m sure it’ll nail the pattern off the coast of Sri Lanka though.

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hope we get some water...

these last three convection windows have left much to be desired, regionally. And tomorrow, looking over guidance', it appears we'll still make the mid 80s but with a return of that desiccating air mass type.  DPs of 50 with d-slope additional katabatic drying, waving through fields and trees in operation water sucking life right out of the background environment...

dry begets dry.  I've always hated that statement, ... quite likely because it appears to be so true and it's my own petty hang-up. empirically, though, the data is what it is.  Maybe just perception, I dunno.  A dry period is dry so long as it stays dry or event roll out that way off the dice.  And just like the crappes table, you can have successive lucky roles.  Or maybe there are real physics at play.  Maybe it's both - probably. 

Call it whatever we will, trend also is a valid prognostic philosophy.   So we should go ahead and assume the drier side until such time as the erstwhile mode has quite obviously changed. When?  Oh ...probably when the first synoptic nor'easter in Sept or more likely nearing Halloween - which may snow again by the way ...

We'll be back to no drought condition by thanks giggedy.  

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purely supposition ... I would not presume this to be an EC expression year for tropical demographics - heh... even more boring than the climate signal.

The battle will rage on deeper ... probably until mid Met autumn ( Oct ides-), between the subtropical/HC expansion while the La Nina failing circulation mode above mid latitudes keeps trying to pancake the flow with a shallow trough from ORD to NF.   This latter stretching of the field will ensure a active recurving mode to anything nearing the Bahamas -

That's more just a feeling.  

So, big heat.  shut down.

Re-hydration.  shut down.

TC season.  Albeit rare for us anyway, shut down. 

It just seems there is another trend, buried in all this snark, that seems very real though. There's a tendency to keep neutering all event profiles down to the least plausible uninspired and not interesting result. 

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No idea this was even happening... 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/29/weather/kentucky-appalachia-flooding-friday/index.html

And that St Louis flooding last week? 

It's really been a stalled boundary in that vicinity.  I remember reading this in my adolescence.  "The American Weather Book?/Almanac?/Atlas?" - can't recall which ending in the title.  It was thick-ass 3 incher, packed with essays and photos and weather charts that described every phenomenon there is in weather and climate, associating maps...  gray cover. Awesome. Hours of focus like a late Millennial walking off curbs over an iPhone enthralling... but 1979's version of the distraction:  actual books.

Yeah, gaslight intended...

But there was a discussion in there about how the greatest floods come from either tropical disturbances, or... stalled frontal boundaries. 

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37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

purely supposition ... I would not presume this to be an EC expression year for tropical demographics - heh... even more boring than the climate signal.

The battle will rage on deeper ... probably until mid Met autumn ( Oct ides-), between the subtropical/HC expansion while the La Nina failing circulation mode above mid latitudes keeps trying to pancake the flow with a shallow trough from ORD to NF.   This latter stretching of the field will ensure a active recurving mode to anything nearing the Bahamas -

That's more just a feeling.  

So, big heat.  shut down.

Re-hydration.  shut down.

TC season.  Albeit rare for us anyway, shut down. 

It just seems there is another trend, buried in all this snark, that seems very real though. There's a tendency to keep neutering all event profiles down to the least plausible uninspired and not interesting result. 

I know Cosgrove is favoring some east coast activity later this season...we'll see. That is always a long shot, but following his musings for a few years and he has been about as skilled as they come.

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No idea this was even happening... 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/29/weather/kentucky-appalachia-flooding-friday/index.html

And that St Louis flooding last week? 

It's really been a stalled boundary in that vicinity.  I remember reading this in my adolescence.  "The American Weather Book?/Almanac?/Atlas?" - can't recall which ending in the title.  It was thick-ass 3 incher, packed with essays and photos and weather charts that described every phenomenon there is in weather and climate, associating maps...  gray cover. Awesome. Hours of focus like a late Millennial walking off curbs over an iPhone enthralling... but 1979's version of the distraction:  actual books.

Yeah, gaslight intended...

But there was a discussion in there about how the greatest floods come from either tropical disturbances, or... stalled frontal boundaries. 

It was quite the boundary for sure with an extensive temperature/moisture gradient. Despite how significant the flooding was in the St.  Louis area and the devastating flooding that resulted in Kentucky I had thought we would see even more flooding occur this week. That boundary really did not move much either over the course of the week. I think what helped prevent a more widespread significant episode was the precipitation ended up coming in more batches. 

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hope we get some water...
these last three convection windows have left much to be desired, regionally. And tomorrow, looking over guidance', it appears we'll still make the mid 80s but with a return of that desiccating air mass type.  DPs of 50 with d-slope additional katabatic drying, waving through fields and trees in operation water sucking life right out of the background environment...
dry begets dry.  I've always hated that statement, ... quite likely because it appears to be so true and it's my own petty hang-up. empirically, though, the data is what it is.  Maybe just perception, I dunno.  A dry period is dry so long as it stays dry or event roll out that way off the dice.  And just like the crappes table, you can have successive lucky roles.  Or maybe there are real physics at play.  Maybe it's both - probably. 
Call it whatever we will, trend also is a valid prognostic philosophy.   So we should go ahead and assume the drier side until such time as the erstwhile mode has quite obviously changed. When?  Oh ...probably when the first synoptic nor'easter in Sept or more likely nearing Halloween - which may snow again by the way ...
We'll be back to no drought condition by thanks giggedy.  

Gee I hope we get a High Sierra scenario, where the first precip event of fall is snow.


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Now the GFS is back east with the thermal ridging...

not sure I buy it with all this instability and squabbling against it's own ensemble mean.  I still lean warmer than normal - no comment as to the extend of what that will mean for civility.

Although..I do sense that we may have two days of 90s, then a half-assed relaxation for two days, then a longer heat wave ... all fitting inside the next 10 days to two weeks.  ...something sorta like that

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