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Feb 4 2022 Stupid Ice Threat


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Been out all day. Haven’t looked at anything until the last 15 min since I got home. It was pretty toasty on 70 and down 27 from Mt Airy to Laytonsville area. I will say there was some cooler air out in NE MD where I drove down. Regardless, cold front will move through overnight for the northern half of the sub. Temps will crash pretty quick post front with below freezing by 9am over the northern tier leading some ice accretion. Elevated areas will of course be better for ice formation, but the surface will cool quickly and road conditions will deteriorate the back half of the event. 

NAM Nest and NSSL WRF are both pretty good agreement with ice potential. FRAM estimates over the northern tier are anywhere from 0.05 to 0.25 depending on model. Mappyland is probably the best spot for ice given the setup. A place like Shrewsbury will certainly be the target for ice. I’d avoid I-83 north of Monkton today if traveling. 

I still think a light ice is possible for those areas like Damascus/Monkton/Reisterstown with areas along I-70, east of Woodbine a very borderline call. WWA is probably great call right now for the situation. If things break perfect, Hereford zone in Balt Co could get a warning, but that might be a stretch. Either way, cold is coming, so get the jackets ready. I have one more full day here, so I’ll enjoy my precip since it’s hard on come by in West TX. Night y’all! 

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Just now, dailylurker said:

Cold must be bleeding down to east faster. I'm to your west and just starting to slowly drop. It was 57 about 30 minutes ago. 53 and dropping pretty fast now. I know we won't see ice but still interesting to watch. 

39 now. Once my winds shifted, temps dropped. Winds picked up too. I will happily take no ice!

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