Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[LovewellHemp]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I don't think that is political, and I imagine it helps manage the ups and downs of model whiplash

Lol it does indeed help 

[tavwtby]

would I like to be doing testing in boxboro this weekend, looking good there

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Seems like the goal posts are narrowing now. I think getting >12" here is starting to get pretty tough. We're seeing a tick east with the hugged solutions and a tick west with the OTS ones.

I like 6-12" for HVN/HFD to the RI border for now. 

Solid. Mirrors our thoughts. GL. 

[cut]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Drunk in tolland can't be helped. He's stuck in his old ways unable to adjust or move with the times. 

 

Well said though, we will chew as many gummies over the next 3 days to help cope with another near missed big event. 

Horrible for anyone on the spectrum however. Psychosis can be amplified.

[HoarfrostHubb]

30 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I need to buy a cabin in the ORH hills...

You get used to the banjo music pretty quickly

[Henry's Weather]

The CMC is NUTS. Stalled storm over the benchmark, going from 976->973 between 12z and 18z Saturday. Nuts.

[TalcottWx]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It figures that you would find the ORH lite, you sick, twisted SOB

ORH but far less crack addicts and shootings 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, plowable maybe,...not death band....but be careful about a sharp cut off

We probably won't have that part figured put until tomorrow.  Could get 6" back here or it could be a scenario where I get 2" Dave and Whiney get 8" but you still score a 20 burger.

[CoastalWx]

Ukie did take a large move east, but as we said it was kissing the Cape.

[SouthCoastMA]

Not sure this will come close to 05 or 15, but Top 5 potential? sure

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, hooralph said:

i.e. 495 belt. That warms my heart and pains me. I grew up in Acton and spent the 10 years before I left for college just hoping to sniff out 6-8" events. Did not have a single snow day in HS over 4 years.

Similar to Juno band and maybe 3/14/18

[TalcottWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Probably like around or just east of Kev up through ORH and back to me looks prime now.

Snowfall I would agree. Somewhere from you to me likely. Doubt we get it. Would make more since for it to be west of BOS. Either way, anyone SE of that fronto sees over a foot. BOS would get crushed too. Specifically talking 700mb dump age. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

The Canadian maps are tough to read on Meteocentre, but Canadian looks pretty damn good to the west of the low as best as I can see.  Sub 980 inside the BM...tough not to get a good storm region-wide.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The UK coming east is probably good for me...it has the death band way out in Berkshires.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

ORH but far less crack addicts and shootings 

I think Worcester is a straight up cocaine town rather than crack.  

It is amazing, how ORH Co, is always just far enough in the right location for most winter storms.

[OrangeCTWX]

Kinda annoying we can’t get better precip into CT with position of the low on the CMC at hr 54. I would normally take the location of that SLP any day of the week..

[wx2fish]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Ukie did take a large move east, but as we said it was kissing the Cape.

It's run to run jumps are nam-like for sensible weather. Can take those 5h scores and wipe with them

[LovewellHemp]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Drunk in tolland can't be helped. He's stuck in his old ways unable to adjust or move with the times. 

 

Well said though, we will chew as many gummies over the next 3 days to help cope with another near missed big event. 

It is tough to get past the stigma of things. I'm used to it as my mother was the same way. But she has come very far and has even allowed me to put a plant in her backyard lol! I firmly believe if that's possible it's just a matter of educating people and acclimating them to a new culture. Many mgs of THC will be ingested over the course of the weekend without a doubt 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

Kinda annoying we can’t get better precip into CT with position of the low on the CMC at hr 54. I would normally take the location of that SLP any day of the week..

Bands almost always west of modeled and precip shields in general are usually under done and a 3 hour difference in capture puts us in the goods.

FAR from over.

[PhineasC]

The GGEM lost that little hook left into the GOM that it had at 00z. Back to just screaming ENE after it hits SNE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GEM def not as nuts as 00z

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Bands almost always west of modeled and precip shields in general are usually under done and a 3 hour difference in capture puts us in the goods.

FAR from over.

I like your optimism and it's certainly not impossible...but expect 3-6", maybe 4-8". 

[MarkO]

48 hours out and...

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

Kinda annoying we can’t get better precip into CT with position of the low on the CMC at hr 54. I would normally take the location of that SLP any day of the week..

It is the manner in which it achieves the BM position that is causing the eastward look to the precip compared to a more conventional storm.....typically storms move northeast or ENE to the BM....but this one is kind of taking a wider turn to the right and then hooking north....when it does that, the heavier WCB precip is not going to get western areas as much...it comes up through the Cape and eastern areas first and then you have to wait until the CCB backs in from the E or SE.

The compactness of this storm will definitely be somethign to watch....if it's a bit wider circulation, then you will do fine with a BM track...but if it implodes a bit toward the center, then we could see an annoying dropoff in totals west of roughly ORH-IJD.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The GGEM lost that little hook left into the GOM that it had at 00z. Back to just screaming ENE after it hits SNE.

That aspect of this storm has been flip flopping and makes a huge difference for sensible weather outside of AEMATT

[WeatherWilly]

Just now, MarkO said:

48 hours out and...

Forecasts were just as accurate 300 years ago when people put their fingers in the air.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, MarkO said:

48 hours out and...

Captures pretty well the state of the model swings for here. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

GEM cut back big time in E CT

[ineedsnow]

I think 4 to 8 seems like a good bet here.. not a blockbuster but a good storm

[78Blizzard]

Recon in the Atlantic today.  Should be ingested in 0z runs tonight.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml